The Cowboys led the entire NFL in points scored last season, which is normally a recipe for turning players into hot fantasy football commodities. But that’s not quite the case in Dallas heading into 2024. To be fair, CeeDee Lamb is currently being drafted as the second player overall. But after Lamb, the Cowboys have just a backend QB1 and TE1 in Dak Prescott and Jake Ferguson being drafted as fantasy starters. Their top running back, Rico Dowdle, is the RB50 in ADP, and Brandin Cooks is their second receiver off the board all the way down at WR65. Let’s take a look back at 2023 to see if these low expectations make sense for the Cowboys heading into 2024:
Ground Rules: Check out the first edition here for a full explanation of what’s going on. All scoring is Half-PPR, Week 18 stats are not included (so a full season is 16 games), and only players currently being drafted in the top 200 of Underdog Best Ball drafts are covered.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 325.7; QB4
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 20.5; QB5
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 16
- Points Per Full Game: 20.5; QB5
2023 was a return to form for Prescott, as he made it clear that his down 2022 season was just an outlier in what has otherwise been an excellent run for last season’s MVP runner-up. While he averaged just 6.7 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) in 2022 (thanks in no small part to a large number of flukey interceptions), Dak’s other four most recent seasons have seen him post marks of 8.4, 8.4, 8.0, and 8.2 in that category. Last season’s 8.2 is technically a downgrade from his 2019 and 2020 seasons, but I would argue that it is more impressive given that the league as a whole took a step back in terms of passing efficiency. Dak ranked fourth in the NFL in terms of ANY/A while also attempting the fourth most passes of any quarterback. Fittingly, this led him to a QB4 finish in fantasy points per game (if we take the liberty of ignoring Joe Flacco’s magical run). Prescott is by no means a true dual-threat QB, but he did also rank ninth at the position with 287 rushing yards on the year to go with two rushing TDs.
Takeaway
Prescott is undeniably undervalued at his current QB8 ADP. Obviously, he can’t compete with the big three of dual-threat QBs (Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts). And I can understand him being behind both Patrick Mahomes (the BOAT) and Anthony Richardson (whose fantasy ceiling is insane). But Prescott has as good an argument as anyone for being the first name off the board after those five. Yes, his weapons aren’t as exciting as those of C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow, but he easily outscored both of them last year with these same lackluster weapons. If you’re looking for a solid QB1 with true top-five upside, consider making it Rayne (did you know his given name is Rayne??).
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Running Back
Tony Pollard
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 179.5; RB18
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 11.2; RB25
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 16
- Points Per Full Game: 11.2; RB25
Reading back over my in-season coverage of Pollard, I am reminded of the five stages of grief. I started with denial: “In the one game where the Cowboys didn’t reach a 90% win probability in the first half, Tony Pollard played 87% of snaps and saw 23 carries (an 87% share) and three targets. Assuming their defense doesn’t keep having two-TD days, Pollard is a top-five RB.” Then I moved on to bargaining: “Pollard is nowhere near as efficient as he was in years prior, but his usage (outside of some super weird game scripts) is still elite. If you can stomach it, consider buying low.” Next came depression: “With terrible efficiency and an apparent allergy to the end zone, Pollard can’t afford to lose any work at all, and it seems like he is going to.” And finally, acceptance: “You can’t exactly sell Pollard at this point, and I wouldn’t bench him against the Panthers, so I guess just roll him out there and hope for the best.” If you’re thinking that I skipped anger, never fear: I was very, very angry every time I remembered that I drafted Pollard as a fringe first-rounder in multiple leagues.
To be fair to Pollard, he did finish as a top-20 RB overall and a top-25 RB in points per game. That’s obviously not living up to the hype he had coming into his first season as the Cowboys’ lead back, but he was still a valuable fantasy option. It is also worth noting that Pollard’s efficiency, while undeniably worse than his truly elite numbers in previous years, wasn’t as bad as you might think. He even graded out positively in Yards Created according to SumerSports, as well as landing 10th (yes, 10th overall) in PFF Rushing Grade for the regular season. Things look even better for Pollard if you only look at the second half of the season, perhaps not coincidentally given that he said he first felt fully recovered from a broken fibula suffered in the 2022 season in Week 11. However, we still have to acknowledge that, even if we start from Week 11, Pollard was just the RB21 in points per game while having arguably the best situation of any running back in the league.
Takeaway
I want to convince myself to be back in on Pollard for 2024, but I just can’t. Yes, his efficiency rebounded in the second half of 2024. But he was still not the dynamic player he was for the first four years of his career. And the move from Dallas to Tennessee is a downgrade in every way: Tyjae Spears should steal more touches than Rico Dowdle, and the Titans’ offense and offensive line are both multiple tiers below the Cowboys’. Given that Pollard’s current RB21 ADP is more or less how he performed last year despite his worse situation, I’m likely going to pass on him in most leagues.
Rico Dowdle
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 71.5; RB55
- Games Played: 15
- Points Per Game: 4.8; RB61
Beyond The Box Scores
- Games Played Over 20% Of Snaps: 8
- Points Per Game Over 20% Of Snaps: 6.2; RB48
Dowdle gained hype in fantasy circles at times in the 2023 season, especially early on when Pollard was really struggling. But he never truly saw more than a change of pace role: 57% of his 89 carries on the season came in garbage time, as did 60% of his rushing yards. His efficiency was also nothing to write home about. Dowdle ranked between the 57th and 22nd percentiles in each of Yards Created (SumerSports), success rate, PFF Rush Grade, and PFF Elusive Rating among qualified running backs. While he did tie for 11th among running backs in yards per route run, he falls to 29th when we exclude screen yardage … again landing near the middle of 61 qualified RBs. Subjectively, his receiving performance was even worse, as PFF graded him 40th of those 61 RBs in Receiving Grade. Putting it all together, Dowdle was a replacement-level RB in 2023, if not slightly worse.
Takeaway
The fact that Dowdle is currently being taken as the RB50 in ADP shows that everyone and their mother expects the Cowboys to add not just competition, but a starter who will claim the lead job before Week 1. And yes, they probably will … but what if they don’t? Maybe they draft a rookie who busts (this RB class is notoriously weak), or maybe they just decide to roll with Dowdle in what is starting to look suspiciously like a re-tooling year. We’ve seen worse running backs than Dowdle (who, again, is probably below average) put up solid fantasy production on worse offenses than the Cowboys. As of right now, before the NFL Draft, I don’t hate throwing a dart at Dowdle’s absurdly low ADP; at the very least, he is likely to be a valuable handcuff. Even if the Cowboys do draft an RB, Dowdle’s ADP will likely fall further, making him still a solid dart throw given his realistic path to volume on an elite offense.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 306.7; WR1
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 19.2; WR2
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 16
- Points Per Full Game: 19.2; WR2
As is often the case with the truly elite players, I didn’t have much to say about Lamb during the 2023 season. In fact, I only truly mentioned him once: Following Week 4, I noted the Cowboys’ weird game scripts over the first few weeks and argued that we should still “Expect Lamb to be his usual stud self” going forward. Unlike with Pollard, Lamb actually made me look smart for that call, proceeding to average a truly absurd 21.9 Half-PPR points over the rest of the season en route to a WR1 overall finish. Looking back on the season, I still don’t have much to say about Lamb. I did my due diligence, checking all sorts of peripheral stats in case I found something surprising, but he was, unsurprisingly, top-five in just about every metric.
Takeaway
Lamb is currently going as the WR1 overall in Underdog ADP, and that’s where he lands in my rankings, too. Picking between Lamb and guys like Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill is splitting hairs, but he does have the best combination of elite quarterback and nonexistent competition. I will always back the field to claim the top overall spot over any one player, but Lamb is very likely to be a top-five fantasy receiver again in 2024.
Brandin Cooks
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 133; WR41
- Games Played: 15
- Points Per Game: 8.9; WR46
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 14
- Points Per Full Game: 9.3; WR43
Cooks’ 2023 season was … fine. If we want to be generous, we can throw out those first four weird game scripts I keep referencing, but he still only moves up to WR35 at 10.2 points per game. That level of production is certainly worth something, especially in deeper leagues, but it’s not exactly game-changing. There’s nothing in his peripherals (34th percentile yards per route run, 53rd percentile PFF Grade) that indicates he was more than an average receiver.
Takeaway
Cooks is currently being drafted as the WR65 in ADP, a bit low given he is still the Cowboys’ WR2 and coming off a top-50 season. But given that 2024 will be his age-31 season, he’s much more likely to fall off a cliff than he is to take a step forward. And with Michael Gallup out the door, the Cowboys are a candidate to take advantage of a deep rookie WR class. If he survives the draft with his role intact, I will be in on Cooks as a deep-league or Best Ball pick. But I would rather take a chance on a player with a wider range of outcomes in shallower leagues, preferably one on the other side of the aging curve.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 131.7; TE8
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 8.2; TE9
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 16
- Points Per Full Game: 8.2; TE9
Jake Ferguson had the definition of a solid, if unspectacular, TE1 season. He ranked sixth at the position in targets and fourth among all players with a whopping 24 red zone targets, 12 of which came in the end zone. He’s probably going to regress some on the red zone target front, but he actually only scored five touchdowns, so his touchdown total could easily remain the same. You could quibble a little with some of his peripheral metrics (he ranked just 11th among the top 18 targeted TDs in yards per route run), but there’s certainly nothing hugely concerning. He’s also not an elite athlete for the position, but he still had an impressive 6.0 YAC/reception (although that is slightly offset by his low 6.2 ADOT).
Takeaway
I think TE11 is a fair price for Ferguson. I don’t think he has many truly elite seasons in his range of outcomes (if it was going to happen, it would have been last year), but he is a pretty safe bet to finish as a top-12 tight end. I’m a fan of Andrew Cooper’s Yin/Yang approach to the TE position, and Ferguson is about as textbook a “Yin” (high-floor, low-ceiling) option as you can find.
