Welcome to Week 9 of Beyond the Box Scores! Where last week we saw tons of huge performances, this week was back to defense (gross) and depressed fantasy football scores across the league … unless you had Joe Mixon or Justin Fields. Let’s take a look under the hood for the good, the bad and the ugly from this week’s action.
Note: All fantasy scores and rankings will be for Half-PPR formats. Data courtesy of PFR, PFF and The Edge (among other places).
Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
- Marcus Mariota and Kyle Pitts may have the worst chemistry of any quarterback/pass-catcher duo in the NFL. There were plenty of plays they should have hit on, but didn’t, and it’s often hard to assign blame. Mariota often seems to throw to just the wrong spot, while Pitts seems to be giving up on routes and catchable balls. For the worst example, they failed to connect on what should’ve been a 70-yard TD pass to take the lead late in the fourth — did Mariota overthrow it, or should Pitts have seen the space and broken vertical? Does it even matter? With over 200 air yards this week, the opportunity is there for Pitts, but something’s always off. He’s a bench stash for now.
- I am absolutely kicking myself for not picking up Justin Fields in one league because I thought I was set with Justin Herbert. Herbert himself doesn’t look that bad, this week’s interception was entirely on Joshua Palmer … but that’s a big part of the problem. Relying on Palmer as his WR1 and a decline in the Chargers’ O-line has killed Herbert’s efficiency; his average depth of target, yards per attempt and TD% are all way down. An insane 43.9 attempts per game is keeping him afloat as a fantasy option, but he’s hardly a must-start option.
- Cordarrelle Patterson led Atlanta’s RBs in snaps and targets in his return … with 39% and one. Two goal-line TDs (including one highlight-worthy truck-stick) made for a solid fantasy outing, but both those numbers will need to trend up for CPatt to be more than a flex option. They certainly might as he works back from injury, but it’s no guarantee.
Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears
- Jeff Wilson Jr. outsnapping Raheem Mostert just five days after joining the Dolphins is one of the most notable stats of the week. Mostert did get most of the third-down and red zone snaps so he’s not dead to us just yet, but Wilson is a must-add if he was dropped in your league after the CMC trade.
- Last week I said: “Go add Justin Fields immediately. That kind of rushing work is game-breaking.” Well, this week he broke the game. It might be an overreaction, but I’ll happily place him in the Allen/Hurts/Lamar/Mahomes top tier of QBs going forward. He’s still available in a decent chunk of one-QB leagues, but that will all change when waivers run tonight.
- Despite leading the league in total targets, Tyreek Hill came into this week with just two end zone targets on the season, tied for 72nd in the league with names like Josh Oliver and Zander Horvath. He saw his third in this one, getting wide open for a three-yard game of pitch and catch with Tua Tagovailoa and scoring just his third TD of the season. My point is this: Cooper Kupp needs to watch out, as Hill’s ceiling may be even higher than his current WR3 overall ranking in PPR as more red zone work and positive TD regression come his way.
Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Since becoming the Panthers’ WR2 in Week 7, Terrace Marshall leads the league in end zone targets with five, nearly two a game. They have all been essentially identical, with first PJ Walker and then Baker Mayfield clearly having a green light to simply chuck the ball in his direction upon entering the red zone. And it worked this week, as Marshall hauled in a garbage-time jump ball from Mayfield to secure his second straight week of double-digit fantasy points. With this usage, I love him as a deep-league add and DFS value play.
- This Joe Mixon explosion was not a fluke. Prior to this week, he was second in fantasy points below expectation according to PFF. He had 12 carries within the five, the most in the league, for just two touchdowns. Both of these stats were admittedly skewed by the fact that many of those carries came back to back, giving Mixon two (or even three) extremely high-value carries where a different back may have just scored the first one. But he scored them this week, showing his upside in this offense. Of the top six scoring offenses, Mixon is the only lead back not to have his upside hamstrung by a running QB (Bills, Eagles, Ravens), a lack of pass-catching ability (Seahawks) or a timeshare from Hell (Chiefs). It won’t always be pretty, but Mixon is a lock to finish in the RB1 range.
- D’Onta Foreman’s snap share dropped from a pretty great 68% to a pretty yikes 43%. On the other hand, while there’s no official stat for this, his “While this was still a real football game” snap percentage is certainly much higher. Chuba Hubbard practiced fully today, which may throw a wrench in the gears, but Foreman is still a flex candidate.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- Aaron Rodgers looked awful on Sunday. He also looked for Allen Lazard at every possible opportunity and especially in high-leverage situations. Gotta-have-it third down? Lazard. Fourth down? Lazard. End zone? Lazard. With Romeo Doubs ruled out for at least four weeks, look for Lazard to produce WR2 numbers.
- At least the Lions warned us, but it still hurts fantasy managers to see a supposedly healthy D’Andre Swift total just five touches. To make matters worse, one of those touches was a great route and catch for 12 yards down to the one-yard line … where Jamaal Williams promptly got the goalline carry, and the two-point conversion attempt two plays later. With this usage split, Swift is a big-play-dependent flex, while Williams is a TD-dependent RB2.
- Christian Watson was shut down early in this game, but it was reportedly precautionary as he avoided suffering another concussion. While his rookie season has been an injury-riddled disappointment so far, Watson looks explosive with the ball in his hands on an offense desperate for playmakers. He’s a potential stash in deep leagues and a trade target for me in Dynasty.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Here are some of Travis Etienne’s stats over the last three weeks (aka the post-James-Robinson era) and where they would rank among RBs over the full season: 80% snap share (2nd), 22 rushing attempts per game (2nd), 126.3 rush yards per game (1st) and 22.6 fantasy points per game (1st). He’s a top-five back going forward in all formats.
- Davante Adams had nine receptions for 146 yards and two touchdowns in the first half, thanks in part to Andre Cisco slipping on his second 38-yard score … he finished the game with 10 receptions for 146 yards and two touchdowns. And it’s not like he wasn’t getting chances: Derek Carr looked his way eight times after the break. Some of those targets weren’t great, but Adams also had a few drops (by his standards anyway). In general, something seems off with the connection between the college teammates, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more relatively down weeks in Adams’ future … on the other hand, he has the talent and the volume and just finished as this week’s WR1. Shrug.
- Christian Kirk had a big day, but his snap share did not rebound like I was hoping it might. Obviously, the production is nothing to look past, but back-to-back weeks of 78% and 75% snaps after not dropping below 90% through the first seven weeks of the season is concerning. He’s a sneaky sell-high candidate for me.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
- Here’s a two-team take, which might be a first for this column: I like the talent that rookies Tyquan Thornton and Alec Pierce have flashed, but until they pass the guys above them (Kendrick Bourne and Parris Campbell) to at least be their teams’ WR2s, they don’t belong on fantasy rosters.
- Along with the rest of the Colts, Deon Jackson was a disappointment this week. But he played 63% of snaps despite playing just one in the garbage-time fourth quarter. His 73% RB rush share is also good. If Jonathan Taylor stays out, he should bounce back in Week 10 against the hapless Raiders.
- This could easily come back to bite me, but I still don’t buy it from Rhamondre Stevenson. Yes, he’s put up five straight top-15 RB finishes and is now the RB8 on the season. But when Damien Harris is fully healthy (Weeks 1-4 and 8), he still sees at minimum 40% of both snaps and carries. And I don’t have faith in this Patriots offense to support an RB1 on less than full workhorse volume. I’d flip him for RB1 value if he can fetch it.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
- While the biggest worry for Josh Allen’s fantasy managers is the severity of his elbow injury, Allen wasn’t exactly lighting it up even before he was rubbing his elbow. He started the game with a truly head-scratching interception, had another in the third, and could have had one more. Of course, he ran for 86 yards and two TDs to finish as the week’s QB3. The biggest impact Allen’s passing struggles (which aren’t entirely isolated to this one game) have for fantasy is hurting his secondary targets like Dawson Knox and Gabe Davis.
- Garrett Wilson played on 92% of snaps this week, his new season high and a continuation of an upward trend. The Jets are looking to get the ball in his hands on short routes, and he also has the talent to win down the field. He’ll be a starting option for fantasy when the Jets return from a bye in Week 11.
- Nyheim Hines played just four snaps in his debut for Buffalo, an outlier in a week of players immediately contributing for their new teams. It would be shocking if that doesn’t trend up, so he’s a hold for now.
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders
- Outside of a 49-yard TD that only happened because a ref tripped Vikings safety Camryn Bynum, Curtis Samuel had just 32 yards on two catches and one rush, while Taylor Heinicke would have finished with around eight fantasy points. Neither belongs in lineups except in deep or two-QB leagues against the Eagles next week.
- T.J. Hockenson playing 91% of snaps in his Minnesota debut is incredible. There was at least one play where he seemed to run the wrong route and ended up in the same space as another Viking TE, but they clearly wanted him out there regardless. It showed on the stat sheet as well, as Hockenson caught all nine of his targets for 70 yards. Further integration into the offense will lock him in as a weekly TE1.
- J.D. McKissic was inactive this week with a neck injury that sounds as though it may pose problems beyond just this week. If so, that turns the Commanders’ backfield from a fantasy irrelevant three-headed committee to a two-headed committee with a glimmer of hope. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson were the only RBs to play a snap this week, even playing together a few times to reach 44% and 58% snap shares respectively. It will still be ugly, as Gibson is more explosive and will dominate valuable receiving touches but Robinson leads in both red zone carries (10 to five) and carries inside the five (two to none) since his debut, so he will likely score more TDs. But there may be flex value for both of them, with a preference for Gibson in any PPR format.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
- In his most impactful contribution as a Cardinal thus far, Robbie Anderson committed a false start that wiped a DeAndre Hopkins TD off the board. Even without that score, Hopkins finished with a respectable 11.6 points. His average of 18.3 points per game has him at WR4 for the season, add in the touchdown and his hypothetical 20.3-point average would tie Cooper Kupp atop the list. He’s already a locked-in WR1 and is one more big week from securing his spot in the truly elite tier.
- Kenneth Walker set his career high with four targets this week, catching three of them for 20 yards. A lack of true receiving work is the only thing keeping him out of the top tier of running backs, but a couple more multi-reception games could change that. Regardless, the rookie is obviously an RB1 at this point.
- James Conner returned and immediately reclaimed a 71% snap share in the Arizona backfield, including almost every third-down snap and both snaps inside the 10. He should put up high-end RB2 numbers going forward and is a good trade target if a manager was disappointed by his seven-carry and 8.9-fantasy-point outing.
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Reminder to go check your waiver wire for Kyren Williams. Chances are it amounts to nothing: He’s a small, slow rookie coming off a high ankle sprain to play behind a terrible offensive line. But there were murmurs preseason that he would get the start in Week 1 prior to his injury, and anyone with a shot to be a starting RB is worth a stash in deep leagues.
- A CBS sideline reporter noted during the game on Sunday that Leonard Fournette was “extremely frustrated” at being replaced by Rachaad White for a drive late in the first half. This probably amounts to nothing, and Fournette still easily led in snaps with 62%. However, he saw just one more carry than the rookie White (although he did earn seven targets to White’s three). On an offense looking for a spark, White may continue to be more involved.
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
- The longest run any Chiefs RB had in this game was three yards. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes attempted a nearly record-setting 68 passes. Jerick McKinnon may have the best path to fantasy relevance due to his pass-catching role (eight targets in this one), but I don’t want any Kansas City back in my lineups.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine led Titans WRs in routes and snaps for the second straight week. Does this mean he’s worth adding? Probably not. It does mean Robert Woods is even more droppable than he already was.
- With 12 targets this week, JuJu Smith-Schuster now has six games of at least eight targets. Only his teammate Travis Kelce, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs have more (seven each). With that kind of volume from the best QB in the league, he should be a solid WR2 going forward.
