The Lions are absolutely loaded with fantasy football options, so this is going to be a long one. Let’s get right into it.
Ground Rules: Check out the first edition here for a full explanation of what’s going on. All scoring is Half-PPR, Week 18 stats are not included (so a full season is 16 games), and only players currently being drafted in the top 200 of Underdog Best Ball drafts are covered.
Quarterback
Jared Goff
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 282.3; QB8
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 17.6; QB16
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 16
- Points Per Full Game: 17.6; QB16
Jared Goff’s 2023 season is exactly why we evaluate fantasy players using points per game instead of total points. His QB8 total points rank makes him seem like a solid QB1, but QB16 in points per game is closer to the truth: Goff is a high-tier QB2. He adds essentially no value with his legs, averaging just 10 fantasy points per season on the ground since his move to Detroit. But he also ranks fourth in the league in passing yards over that span, and he has finished in the top six in passing TDs in each of the last two years. And it’s not just total stats: Especially since the arrival of Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson in Detroit, Goff has been a solidly above-average QB in terms of passing efficiency (he ranked seventh in adjusted yards per attempt this season).
Takeaway
Unfortunately for us, the rest of the fantasy community has not been fooled by Goff’s “stay healthy and accumulate top-10 stats” ways. His current ADP of QB15 is exactly where he finished in 2023 PPG among quarterbacks not named Joe Flacco. However, while that may seem like a fair price, I don’t see myself ending up with many shares of Goff. In my view, he is the most expensive option in a large tier of solid, low-upside QB2s, and I would much rather draft from the bottom of that tier (think Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Russell Wilson) than the top. And even that is only for 2-QB or Best Ball leagues. In traditional 1-QB formats, Goff is nearly worthless as the prototypical replacement-level quarterback. Given that very similar production will almost certainly be available on the waiver wire, let your league-mates waste a mid-round pick on the “safety” that Goff provides. If you still want to draft a backup QB, I’d recommend taking a risk on a more unknown quantity, like any of the highly drafted rookies in this year’s draft; you may just find the next C.J. Stroud, and if not, you don’t miss out on much by passing on Goff.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 207.1; RB9
- Games Played: 14
- Points Per Game: 14.8; RB7
Beyond The Box Scores
- Games Played Over 40% Of Snaps: 12
- Points Game Over 40% Of Snaps: 16.1; RB5
- Games Played With David Montgomery Healthy: 10
- Points Per Game Played With David Montgomery Healthy: 13.9; RB11
When I feel the need to make two separate splits for a player, they are normally a player with plenty of narratives, and that is certainly the case for Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s hard to remember now, but fantasy players were calling for Dan Campbell’s head thanks to Gibbs’ lackluster usage a few weeks into last season, especially in the passing game. It took an injury to David Mongomery (after suffering one of his own) for Gibbs to really get going. Then there were a few weeks in which the Lions were running over everyone, leading many, myself included, to anoint the thunder and lightning teammates as “both must-starts in all formats.” However, the good times didn’t last forever: The duo managed just six top-20 finishes over the last seven weeks of the season (Week 18 included), three apiece … and that was despite them combining for 11 touchdowns in those seven weeks. To be fair, they were still the RB11 (Gibbs) and RB16 (Montgomery) over that time span, but they didn’t exactly disprove the theory that you can’t have two consistent fantasy backs from the same backfield.
Focusing back just on Gibbs, his role following Montgomery’s second return from injury was good, but not great. Including the Lions’ three playoff games, the 2023 12th-overall pick averaged a 41% rush share (11.2 attempts per game, not great) and a 13% target share (4.3 targets per game, excellent) on a 53% snap share (not great) over the Lions’ last 12 games. He played 55% of Detroit’s passing-down snaps (good) but trailed Montgomery 10 to 19 in goal-line carries (bad), including zero to eight in the playoffs (very bad). In those games, he averaged 14.9 Half-PPR points, especially impressive considering three of them were against theoretically tougher-than-average playoff defenses. On the efficiency side, Gibbs ranked somewhere between great and elite in every rushing efficiency metric I checked, including third in breakaway run rate and fifth in straight-up yards per attempt. His receiving metrics weren’t as impressive as you might expect, but they were still solidly above average (26th of 61 qualified RBs in yards per route run) on elite volume (he ran the seventh-most routes and saw the fourth-most targets at the position).
Takeaway
I love Gibbs as a player, but he’s overvalued as the RB4 in current Underdog ADP. Efficiency can only take you so far in a game where volume is king. Gibbs can still be an RB1 — he was last year — thanks to his receiving-heavy usage and explosiveness on an elite offense. But I can’t get on board with taking him over a player like Jonathan Taylor, who is just as talented and also all but guaranteed to see a larger share of his team’s opportunities. Gibbs does have RB1 overall ceiling if Montgomery suffers a long-term injury, but otherwise I find it very unlikely that Detroit will move away from how they used their running back duo to great success down the stretch last year. With that in mind, I would rank Gibbs closer to RB8 or RB9 than in the top five.
David Montgomery
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 189.2; RB14
- Games Played: 13
- Points Per Game: 14.6; RB8
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 11
- Points Per Full Game: 15.8; RB5
I already gave the Cliff Notes version of Montgomery’s 2023 season above: He started as the Lions’ lead back, dealt with a few injuries, and eventually settled into an early-down and goal-line role in a timeshare with Gibbs. Along the way, he racked up an absurd 13 rushing touchdowns in 13 games (including multiple affected by injuries). And before we dismiss this as a number destined for regression, remember that Jamaal Williams scored a league-leading 17 touchdowns (again, exactly 1.0 per game) in a similar role for the Lions in 2022.
However, if we look at those same final 12 games when both backs were healthy that we looked at for Gibbs, some things aren’t too promising for Montgomery. He averaged just a 50% rush share (13.7 attempts per game) on a 44% snap share. That wouldn’t be too bad if paired with healthy receiving usage (as it was for Gibbs), but Monty saw under two targets per game in that span. As a result, despite still racking up rushing touchdowns (nine in those 12 games), he averaged just 12.9 points per game. That still would be good for a top-20 ranking on the season, but it’s a far cry from the top 10 numbers he averaged when you include early games before Gibbs was established in the Lions’ offense. On the other hand, we should note that Montgomery’s early-down and goal-line-heavy role means he is more likely to be affected by the fact that this split included the Lions’ three playoff games. We also can’t dismiss Montgomery as the plodding veteran to Gibbs’ explosive youngster — while he wasn’t as explosive, Montgomery isn’t that far behind his rookie teammate in many efficiency metrics, and he actually ranked higher than Gibbs, and among the league’s top backs, in success rate and PFF Rush Grade.
Takeaway
I often see fantasy players (and analysts) make the mistake of assuming you have to pick one or the other between pairs of talented teammates (Montgomery vs. Gibbs, Kraft vs. Musgrave, Evans vs. Godwin, Dell vs. Collins, etc.). But that is not the case. Just because I was out on Gibbs at cost doesn’t mean I have to be in on Montgomery … but I am. RB19 is a very fair price to pay for a player coming off a top-five finish on a points-per-healthy-game basis. And while we all love getting excited about younger, more explosive players like Gibbs, Montgomery was a very efficient back in his own right in 2023. He’s not just going to disappear from this offense. At the very least, he should still be the lead goal-line back in an offense that has racked up 50 rushing touchdowns over the last two years. It is true that I normally stress chasing upside, and Montgomery doesn’t have the same clear path to upside as Gibbs, or even as some other backs in his ADP range … unless the 199-pound Gibbs gets hurt, that is, in which case he would immediately be a top-five back. Even if both backs stay healthy, I don’t think the 26-year-old Montgomery is going to lose the role he had to finish last season, which should lead to him finishing with double-digit TDs and a solid RB2 season.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 247.5; WR3
- Games Played: 15
- Points Per Game: 16.5; WR4
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 15
- Points Per Full Game: 16.5; WR4
Here are some metrics in which Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked among the top five receivers in the league in 2023: targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, PFF Grade, targets per route run, and fantasy points. If we expand to the top eight, he also adds both yards per route run (seventh) and adjusted yards per route run (eighth). And while he has a reputation as a slot-only WR, he actually ran only 55.3% of his routes from the slot in 2023. Even better, he was actually more efficient from outside the slot, with an obscene 3.03 yards per route run on non-slot routes, the fourth-best in the league.
Takeaway
I’ll admit it, I used to be a doubter of Amon-Ra St. Brown (In my defense, take a look back at St. Brown’s rookie-year metrics — he wasn’t always this good). But I have since repented my sins, and now I praise the Sun God. ARSB is right at home surrounded by some of the league’s biggest stars as the WR5 in ADP.
Jameson Williams
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 68.3; WR81
- Games Played: 12
- Points Per Game: 5.7; WR72
Beyond The Box Scores
- Games Above 50% Route Participation: 7
- Points Per Full Game: 6.5; WR68
Let’s start from the beginning, as you almost have to in order to understand Williams’ story. He was the 12th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft despite tearing his ACL in his final college game (the National Championship). He appeared in just six games as a rookie, finishing with just one carry and one catch … but they each went for over 40 yards. Given that he was clearly still an elite athlete coming off his injury, Williams was a popular breakout pick heading into his sophomore season, but a four-game gambling suspension delayed his 2023 debut. When he did finally take the field, the results were obviously lackluster; this article series is all about context, but I can’t think of the context that would make a WR72 PPG finish look appealing. Williams never secured a full-time role in the Lions’ offense, averaging just a 43% route participation rate in his healthy regular season games. And even when he was on the field, Williams was not the difference-maker fantasy managers were hoping for: His yards per route run landed him 62nd among 96 qualified receivers, right in between Wan’Dale Robinson and TuTu Atwell. He was used primarily as an occasional deep threat, with the fifth-highest ADOT of any wide receiver but only once more than a 12% target share. There’s also no real indicator that he deserved a bigger role: PFF graded him 74th out of those same 96 receivers. If we’re looking for a silver lining, Williams did get more involved as the season went on, especially in the playoffs. He averaged a 78% route participation rate over the Lions’ three playoff games, higher than he managed in any single game during the regular season. On the downside, he still never recorded more than four targets, two receptions, or 35 receiving yards in those three games … although he did add another hit to his highlight reel.
Takeaway
I don’t see any justification for Williams’ WR47 ADP. From what we’ve seen in the NFL, he’s a big-play threat in a part-time role, nothing more. That’s valuable for an NFL team, but it’s not for fantasy managers (even in Best Ball, just one big play every few weeks and nothing else isn’t all that helpful). I don’t care how good a prospect he was, I’m not touching a guy for whom “he will push to be a full-time starter” counts as good news in the top 100 picks of a fantasy draft.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 184.9; TE1
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 11.6; TE1
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 16
- Points Per Full Game: 11.6; TE1
Obviously, LaPorta’s rookie season was amazing. He finished as the TE1 in both total points and points per game, singlehandedly killing the “rookie tight ends don’t produce” narrative. But as far as TE1 seasons go, there are a few nits to pick with LaPorta’s 2023. For one, his 11.5 points per game (counting Week 18) wouldn’t have ranked as the TE1 in any of the previous five years. In fact, he would have finished outside the top three tight ends in points per game in four of those five years. For another, he ranked “just” fourth in PFF Receiving Grade at the position, as well as sixth in yards per route run. He also wasn’t particularly explosive for a heavily utilized receiving TE, ranking 10th in YAC/reception and 11th in yards/reception among the 15 most-targeted tight ends. LaPorta also had one of the least fantasy-friendly roles on a per-snap basis of that group, ranking second in pass-block rate and fifth in terms of the percent of his routes that came from in-line (traditionally a less valuable place to run routes from). He was also TD-reliant, with 29.2% of his fantasy points coming thanks to his 11 touchdowns, well above the position average, around 20% … but did I mention that he scored 11 touchdowns? LaPorta scored seven red-zone TDs on 15 targets (fourth-most among TEs) and added four more from outside the 20 for good measure. He also finished among the top three tight ends in each of targets, receptions, and yards. At the end of the day, he was awesome, and he likely won quite a few people their fantasy leagues.
Takeaway
In case you couldn’t tell from all the nit-picking (some might call it hating) I just did of his historic season, I’m not in love with LaPorta heading into 2024. His touchdown total seems destined for regression, his role isn’t ideal for fantasy, and he’s never going to be his team’s top target with the Sun God in town. With that said, all else equal, he’s probably still the tight end I’d most like on my fantasy team. The problem is that all else isn’t equal. LaPorta is going as not just the TE1, but the clear TE1. His current Underdog ADP is 32.7, nine picks ahead of Travis Kelce at TE2 and 18 picks ahead of the TE3, Trey McBride. Given the difference in opportunity cost that just a few picks can make in that range of the draft, I would much rather have either of those guys, not to mention Mark Andrews (who outscored LaPorta in his healthy games in 2023…) if I’m going to draft an elite tight end.
