Beyond The Box Scores 2023 Retrospective: Baltimore Ravens

I triple-checked my alphabetical order this time: Next up are the Baltimore Ravens (Has anyone ever noticed that the first three teams in alphabetical order are all bird teams?). They had their fair share of narratives in 2023, most notably the impact of new Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken on their offensive philosophy. Let’s get right into looking back at the things worth remembering from the Ravens’ 2023 season.

Ground Rules: Check out the first edition here for a full explanation of what’s going on. All scoring is Half-PPR, Week 18 stats are not included (so a full season is 16 games), and only players currently being drafted in the top 200 of Underdog Best Ball drafts are covered.  

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson

The Box Scores

• Total Points: 338.2; QB3
• Games Played: 16
• Points Per Game: 21.1; QB4

Beyond The Box Scores

• Full Games Played: 16
• Points Per Full Game: 21.1; QB4

Well, I guess you can say that Todd Monken’s offense worked for the 2023 NFL MVP. Importantly, Monken did rely more on Lamar’s passing ability than previous OC Greg Roman. While the Ravens still ranked fifth in overall run rate, that was just because they dominated so many games. They ranked 11th in pass rate over expected, which doesn’t sound that high until you realize that their ranks over the first five years of Jackson’s career were 30th, 31st, 31st, 15th, and 23rd. Here’s a quick look at how that change impacted Jackson’s per-game stats compared to the rest of his career as a starter (playoff games included):

That’s a lot of numbers, so here’s a quick summary. Under Monken, Lamar dropped back more often, seeing significantly fewer designed runs but a slight uptick in scramble attempts. He had a lower ADOT but made up for it with increased efficiency to have more yards per pass attempt. And, most importantly, he averaged just about one fewer fantasy point per game. However, I don’t think it would be fair to conclude that Monken was bad for the MVP’s fantasy value. Quarterback scoring was down across the league this year, so Lamar actually had his best finish in terms of PPG ranking since his bonkers 2018 campaign.

Takeaway

I just threw a lot of numbers and words at you, but I don’t actually have much to say about Lamar’s value for 2024. If we ignore Joe Flacco’s small-sample magic, he was the QB3 in points per game last season behind only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. He is currently being drafted as the QB3 behind only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. If I had to guess, he will finish somewhere around QB3 in 2024, potentially behind Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

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Running Back

Keaton Mitchell

The Box Scores

• Total Points: 65.4; RB56
• Games Played: 7
• Points Per Game: 9.3; RB37

Beyond The Box Scores

• Full Games Played: 6
• Points Per Full Game: 10.7; RB28

In Week 14 I said this about Mitchell:

Keaton Mitchell saw nine carries to Gus Edwards’ six … but both were outsnapped by Justice Hill, who played 42% of snaps despite this game being close throughout. Why? Well, Hill blocked on 12 of his 30 snaps, while Mitchell, who has a putrid 35.9 PFF pass-blocking grade for the season, gave up two pressures and a sack on his seven pass-blocking snaps. Mitchell is clearly the most explosive member of this committee, but he’s only a risky flex play with goal-line and passing-down work (the two most important pieces of usage for fantasy) dominated by Edwards and Hill respectively.

In Week 15, he unfortunately tore his ACL. With that in mind, that final blurb makes for a solid summary of Mitchell’s rookie season. He was incredibly explosive, with 10.3 yards per reception and a league-leading 8.4 yards per rush. But a lack of size and pass-blocking ability meant he never passed a 46% snap share or 11 touches in a given game. He also saw just four red zone attempts, zero at the goal line

Takeaway

Although RB54 feels like a cheap price to pay for last year’s most efficient rusher in the league, I’m out on Mitchell. The Ravens are certain to add to their backfield this offseason, potentially with a big name. And we saw last year that Mitchell’s ceiling was heavily capped as a change-of-pace back even with absolutely minimal competition (no offense to the Gus Bus). Once you factor in that he will be recovering from an ACL injury, far too much would have to go exactly right for Mitchell to be more than a boom-or-bust flex play.

Gus Edwards

The Box Scores

• Total Points: 178.2; RB19
• Games Played: 16
• Points Per Game: 11.1; RB27

Beyond The Box Scores

• Full Games Played: 15
• Points Per Full Game: 11.5; RB25

Gus Edwards had a productive 2023 season as the Ravens’ de facto lead back, mostly thanks to one thing: goal-line touchdowns. Among the top 36 running backs in Half-PPR scoring, the Gus Bus ranked first with a whopping 43% of his production coming from his 13 rushing touchdowns. And all 13 of those TDs came from within 10 yards, 12 came from within the five-yard line, and seven came from just one yard out. His usage away from the goal line oscillated throughout the season, but it mostly ranged from uninspiring to just straight-up bad. And where he has at times in his career been quietly very efficient, most advanced rushing metrics graded Edwards’ 2023 as mediocre.

Takeaway

Edwards barely makes the cut for this article at a current Underdog ADP of 187, but even at that low price I wouldn’t take him in Redraft leagues. Currently a free agent, there is essentially zero chance Edwards has a role in 2024 anywhere near as good as the one he saw last season. He does seem like the kind of guy who could have a solid stretch of games following an injury to the lead back wherever he lands, but I’m not going to recommend drafting him and hoping for that outcome.

J.K. Dobbins

The Box Scores

• Total Points: 10.7; RB106
• Games Played: 1
• Points Per Game: 10.7; RB28

Beyond The Box Scores

• Full Games Played: 1
• Points Per Full Game: 10.7; RB28

As I’m sure you know, Dobbins made it just one half into his fourth-year season before tearing his Achilles. Admittedly, that one half was encouraging, as he finished with 10 touches for 37 total yards and a TD. But this certainly wasn’t the bounceback contract year he was hoping for after missing all of the 2021 season and half of 2022 with injuries.

Takeaway

Dobbins is currently a free agent, and no team is going to sign a back coming off an Achilles tear to be their RB1, or likely even their RB2. D’Onta Foreman is the closest thing we’ve seen to a post-Achilles success story at the RB position in the NFL, and it took him multiple years to return to relevance. Perhaps a great landing spot and some good news out of camp could change things, but Dobbins is off my draft board for now.

Wide Receiver

Zay Flowers

The Box Scores

• Total Points: 167.9; WR27
• Games Played: 16
• Points Per Game: 10.5; WR34

Beyond The Box Scores

• Full Games Played: 16
• Points Per Full Game: 10.5; WR34

Phew. After three straight fringe running backs, it feels good to be back to a player who is undeniably fantasy-relevant heading into 2024. The 2023 22nd overall pick had an interesting rookie season. He exploded out of the gate with nine receptions (plus two carries) in his first NFL game, but a lot of his early usage was gimmicky, with nine of his first 13 NFL receptions coming behind the line of scrimmage. Flowers then slowed down dramatically over the middle of the year before exploding to finish the season, with all four of his games over 15 Half-PPR points coming over the last five weeks.

It’s possible this was just a coincidence, but we can make a compelling argument that Flowers’ fantasy fortune was largely based on the presence (or lack thereof) of Mark Andrews. Flowers averaged 12.7 points in games where Andrews played less than 20% of snaps but just 8.2 points in nine contests with the All-Pro tight end. In Flowers’ defense, the biggest driver in that difference in scoring was touchdowns. His target share with Andrews, while lower than his 26.2% without him, was still a very healthy 23%. All in all, I think a WR34 points-per-game rank is a pretty fair reflection of Flowers’ rookie year, while his WR27 total points rank is a bit inflated by his clean health.

Takeaway

I just said WR34 was a fair reflection of Flowers’ rookie season, so I don’t love his current WR30 ADP. On the other hand, we used to talk about “third-year breakouts” at the wide receiver position; it isn’t all absurd to expect a step forward from the 23-year-old. My biggest worry right now with Flowers is that the Ravens are certain to add to their wide receiver room. Rumors of 31-year-old Michael Thomas aren’t that scary, but another first-round rookie from this loaded class could cut into Flowers’ target share, which is already capped by the presence of Andrews.

Rashod Bateman

The Box Scores

• Total Points: 60.5; WR84
• Games Played: 15
• Points Per Game: 4.0; WR92

Beyond The Box Scores

• Full Games Played: 15
• Points Per Full Game: 4.0; WR92

I was honestly annoyed to see Bateman sitting at an ADP of 197.0, just high enough to mean I have to write him up. Once a Dynasty darling, Rashod Bateman’s 2023 was a huge disappointment even by lowered standards. He often found himself behind Nelson Agholor and/or Odell Beckham Jr. in snap counts, and he was outproduced by both in terms of receiving yards. Even if we look at things just on a per-route basis, Bateman was flat-out bad, ranking 87th out of 120 qualified receivers in adjusted yards per route run according to SumerSports (honestly, 87 out of 120 is even worse than it sounds once you look at the names around him).

Takeaway

I have been burned by Bateman before, and I am not ready to get hurt again. Yes, his WR84 ADP is essentially free, but he averaged FOUR fantasy points last season. There’s a chance a full offseason of health is what he needs to finally live up to his potential, but I think it’s much more likely another bad year in 2024 is the final nail in his coffin as a fantasy-relevant player.

Tight End

Mark Andrews

The Box Scores

• Total Points: 112.9; TE12
• Games Played: 10
• Points Per Game: 11.3; TE4

Beyond The Box Scores

• Full Games Played: 9
• Points Per Full Game: 12.2; TE1

I only mentioned Mark Andrews three times in the in-season editions of this column … and all three times were in another player’s blurb. And while this may seem strange, it’s easy to see why: Mark Andrews is an elite fantasy tight end. Everyone knows Mark Andrews is an elite fantasy tight end. He dealt with some injuries, but he was consistently elite when he played. If you want some stats, he saw a 23% target share in his nine full games, which would rank second to only Evan Engram over the full season. Even if we count Week 11, in which he played just seven snaps, Andrews’ 1.4 red zone targets per game land him second at the position to only Jake Ferguson.

Takeaway

Currently going off the board as the 54th overall player and TE4, Andrews is undervalued, and I will draft him all day as the final member of the “elite” tier at the position. Once you adjust for the time he missed, he was either the first or second-best tight end in pretty much every key stat in 2023, and I see no reason he can’t replicate that performance in 2023.

Isiah Likely

The Box Scores

• Total Points: 74; TE25
• Games Played: 16
• Points Per Game: 4.8; TE30

Beyond The Box Scores

• Games Played Without Andrews: 9
• Points Per Game Without Andrews: 7.7; TE14

Obviously, the key thing to consider with Likely is how he performed as the Ravens’ lead tight end when Mark Andrews was sidelined. When Andrews was healthy, the second-year TE averaged an absolutely useless 1.4 Half-PPR points on one target a game. With Andrews out, he was a borderline TE1 on 3.9 targets per game.

Takeaway

I can’t make any sense of Likely’s current TE21 ADP. There have been theories that the Ravens could move on from Andrews to unleash their younger tight end … but I spend a lot of time on NFL Twitter, and finding that article (which appears to be entirely speculation) on Google just now was the first I’ve heard of this possibility. When Andrews was healthy, Likely was entirely worthless. Even when Andrews was out, he wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. While I love his talent and think he could eventually be a solid fantasy option, I will likely (get it?) have zero shares of Likely given his current situation and price.