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Early Best Ball Quarterback ADP Analysis: Top Overvalued QBs

Ted takes a look at quarterbacks being drafted higher in early 2024 ADP than their 2023 performances would indicate they should be.

CINCINNATI, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 17: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals is sacked by Jadeveon Clowney #24 of the Baltimore Ravens at Paycor Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The 2024 fantasy football season has officially begun. Maybe not for everyone, but as a sicko (and if you’re reading this Best Ball ADP article in January, you’re also a sicko, sorry to break it to you), I am very excited that Underdog has officially launched their first 2024 Best Ball drafts.

Even if you don’t want to draft yet, this is still an important milestone, as the ADP in these early Underdog drafts is the first real glimpse we get into how the fantasy community is valuing players heading into next year. With that in mind, I am going to be going through each position and comparing Underdog’s 2024 ADP to 2023 fantasy scoring, hoping to find some undervalued and overvalued players.

Obviously, this is not a perfect science. The NFL does not remain the same from year to year, and some of the players highlighted in this series as “overvalued” or “undervalued” according to the numbers may actually belong exactly where they are. For example, this metric returns Adam Thielen as the single most “undervalued” player … I don’t know about you, but I won’t be drafting him as a top-20 WR for 2024, even if he finished there in 2023. But it’s still interesting to identify these players, as well as attempt to identify why they are being projected so differently by the fantasy community heading into next season.

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In order to find these players, I will be taking their position rank in terms of 2024 ADP, and comparing it to their position ranks in terms of 2023 total points AND 2023 points per game. I considered using just points per game in order to account for injuries, but total points are actually arguably more predictive of future points. To determine a player’s “Value Score” (TM), I will subtract their 2023 PPG and 2023 Total Points ranks from twice their 2024 ADP rank. Is this methodology scientific at all? No. Is it unfair to players who were injured in 2023? Probably. Without further ado, let’s get into the most overvalued quarterbacks in early 2024 fantasy drafts.

Overvalued Quarterbacks 2024 Fantasy Football

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets — 2024 ADP: QB20; 2023 Total Points: QB71, 2023 PPG: QB71, Value Score: -102

Right off the bat, we have an excellent example of why this metric is, without context, nonsense. In 2023, Rodgers finished with a grand total of zero fantasy points. Obviously, I don’t expect him to repeat that performance in 2024. However, I think there is still a strong argument to be made that Rodgers is overvalued. In 2022, he finished as just the QB29 in points per game with 14.8. He was already the league’s oldest player heading into 2023, then he tore his Achilles. And while it’s unfair to judge one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time by the performances of Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian, we have to consider that the Jets’ offense has been terrible for multiple years. With not much upside and a real risk of missing more time entering his age-40 season, I think Rodgers is going closer to his floor than his ceiling at QB20.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts — 2024 ADP: QB7; 2023 Total Points: QB37, 2023 PPG: QB13, Value Score: -36

This is a case where I will disagree with the Value Score (which is, after all, a nonsense metric I just made up). Richardson already looks less overvalued if you account for his injury and only look at his QB13 rank in points per game. Once you consider that the rookie played a third or fewer of the available snaps in two of the four games he played, things get even crazier. In terms of points per quarter or points per dropback, Richardson is on another level. Yes, the sample size is small, but his dual-threat ability comes with game-breaking upside. Upside wins leagues, and I would be willing to draft Richardson as high as the fourth QB off the board.

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Daniel Jones, New York Giants — 2024 ADP: QB26; 2023 Total Points: QB42, 2023 PPG: QB43, Value Score: -33

I don’t have too much to say about this one. Danny Dimes played six games (exiting early in two) in 2023, and he played them badly. But given his contract situation (and the Giants’ lack of other options), he is likely to be a starting quarterback in 2024. Unless that changes, I think he is slightly undervalued at QB26; after all, he was a top-10 QB in both total points and points per game in 2022, and running quarterbacks are fantasy gold. But with the risk he loses his job and his uninspiring 2023 performance, I’m not going to argue too hard for Jones to go much higher.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals — 2024 ADP: QB10; 2023 Total Points: QB25, 2023 PPG: QB25, Value Score: -30

Four weeks into the 2023 season, Burrow was averaging 8.4 fantasy points. He heated up as he recovered from a preseason calf injury, averaging 22.2 points in Weeks 5-10 … and then he suffered a season-ending wrist injury. I think QB10 is a fair price for Burrow. You could even argue he should go higher, given he was the QB4 in his last healthy season in 2022, although I wouldn’t move him up more than a few slots.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns — 2024 ADP: QB22; 2023 Total Points: QB35, 2023 PPG: QB26, Value Score: -17

Watson is similar to Jones in a lot of ways. He didn’t play much in 2023, and when he did, he was awful. You can chase his past peaks and rushing upside (although he is much further removed from his glory days than Jones is) if you want, and QB22 isn’t much of a price to pay. Personally, I’m happy to leave him off my draft board from now until he exits the league.

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C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans — 2024 ADP: QB5; 2023 Total Points: QB12, 2023 PPG: QB11, Value Score: -14

Stroud is the first player on this list who didn’t miss multiple games in 2023, and with good reason. Going off the board at QB5, I think he is the single most overvalued quarterback in early 2024 ADP. Yes, he looks like the future of the league, but being a franchise quarterback doesn’t score fantasy points. Every other quarterback in the top seven in ADP either has elite rushing upside or is Patrick Mahomes (we’ll get to him shortly). I want to say picking Stroud at QB5 is drafting him at his ceiling, but I think it might even be above his ceiling. Fantasy gods forbid he has a sophomore slump; then you’ve spent premium draft capital on a replacement-level quarterback.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears — 2024 ADP: QB6; 2023 Total Points: QB17, 2023 PPG: QB8, Value Score: -13

Like with Burrow, I think Fields is more-or-less appropriately valued. He appears on this list because he missed four and a half games in 2022, but his QB8 ranking in points per game more or less speaks for itself. A true dual-threat QB, Fields will always be a great fantasy option … as long as he still has a job in 2024, which I think he will; it may not be in Chicago, but that could be a good thing.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs — 2024 ADP: QB4; 2023 Total Points: QB7, 2023 PPG: QB13, Value Score: -12

I hate to say it, as betting against Patrick Mahomes has never gone well for me, but I think Mahomes is slightly overvalued as the QB4. Similarly to Stroud, he is ranked right next to elite dual-threat QBs despite not adding much value with his legs and finishing as just a backend QB1 in 2023. However, we at least have seen seasons of truly elite production from Mahomes, and he is about as safe a pick as you can find. Given how lackluster his 2023 fantasy production was (in the regular season, anyway), I’d rather swing for the fences with Richardson or Fields, but I wouldn’t argue if you like Mahomes right where he is.

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