When it comes to Dynasty fantasy football, running back may be the toughest position to approach. A truly elite running back is the biggest edge you can have if you’re pushing for a championship … but those are few and far between, and even if you manage to land one, who knows how long they’ll last (friendly reminder: 2018 Dynasty RB1 Todd Gurley is only 29 years old).
When I did this article for quarterbacks and wide receivers, I felt confident selecting players who seem destined to last in the top 10 for the foreseeable future (which isn’t even all that true for those positions, but it at least feels true). For this list, I’ll be happy if even half of the names I list are still here two years from now. After all, here are some players who were being drafted as top-10 Dynasty RBs in 2022: Najee Harris (RB2!!), D’Andre Swift (RB4), Javonte Williams (RB5), Austin Ekeler (RB6), Joe Mixon (RB7), Dalvin Cook (RB9), Nick Chubb (RB10). Spoiler alert: None of those names will be on my list today.
Top 10 Dynasty Running Backs
1. Breece Hall, New York Jets
This was a very tough decision between Hall and Bijan Robinson, the consensus top two Dynasty RBs no matter where you look. And most places will actually have Robinson, the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and one of the best running back prospects of the last decade, in the top spot. But I have to give the edge, however slightly, to Hall, for one simple reason: We’ve seen him put up elite fantasy numbers. In his rookie year, Robinson was just the RB20 in points per game (RB17 if we look just at his full games). And yes, there are lots of excuses to be made for that lackluster production: Atlanta’s offense was terrible, his usage was inexplicable, etc. I’ve even said myself that I’m in on the breakout narrative for Robinson heading into 2024 with a new head coach and quarterback. But when Hall, just half a year older, an elite talent in his own right, and coming off a top-four season, is also available, why bother banking on a breakout? You could argue that Bijan has higher upside … but keep in mind that Breece was the RB4 last year despite coming off an ACL tear, having Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle as his QBs, and seeing ONE attempt inside the five-yard line all season. Hall’s upside is as high as anyone’s, and he grabs the top spot.
2. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Given that I spent over half of my blurb for Breece trying to justify giving the top spot to anyone but Robinson, I don’t think I need to say much here. Robinson is barely 22 years old and being drafted as either the RB3 or RB2 in early Redraft ADP. I don’t have him as my Dynasty RB1, but it’s very close.
3. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
CMC is far older than the top two names on this list, and he’s going to remain the oldest player in my top 10 when all is said and done. So how does a decrepit 27-year-old like McCaffrey find himself third in rankings for a Dynasty format? Simple. By scoring just an absurd amount of points. In a Half-PPR format, McCaffrey outscored the next RB by over 100 points in 2023, and that was after he took Week 18 off. I said in the intro that nothing gives you a bigger edge than a truly elite running back season, and nobody gives you a better shot at one heading into 2024 than CMC. He has been a top-three RB in each of his last four healthy seasons, including two absurd RB1 overall finishes. Since he was traded to the 49ers midway through the 2022 season, he has racked up 570 Half-PPR points. Only one other player (Derrick Henry, 430) is above even 400. For what it’s worth, McCaffrey also projects to age relatively well thanks to his elite receiving ability, but I don’t really care about that. At such a volatile position in such a volatile league, sometimes you just have to take the guy who is going to score the most points right now, and that’s McCaffrey.
4. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Most places you look will have Gibbs above CMC, and that’s fair — on a rebuilding team, I’d make the same call. Hell, I was drafting him in the first round of Dynasty Startups last year, before he had even stepped on an NFL field. But, as I’ve already mentioned this offseason, I’m ever so slightly down on last year’s 12th overall pick compared to consensus at this point. Gibbs’ rookie season was very impressive: He ranked in the top 15 in each of yards created (per SumerSports), yards over expected (per NextGenStats), and PFF Rush Grade (per PFF, duh). He also excelled in two key areas for fantasy production, racking up an impressive 63 targets and ranking top-five in every measure of explosive play rate. However, he lagged behind in two even more key places: volume and goal-line work. After fellow Lions RB David Montgomery returned from injury, Gibbs averaged just 11.2 rushing attempts per game, and he was out-carried inside the five-yard line 19 to 10 (including eight to zero in the playoffs). Montgomery is a talented player in his own right and is still on a two-year contract with the Lions. As long as he’s around, I find it hard to see Gibbs reaching the truly elite upside that I’m chasing … but his combination of talent and age still lands him as my Dynasty RB4.
5. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
This is where things get tricky. For me, Hall and Robinson are a clear Tier 1, while Gibbs and CMC get the second tier to themselves. But the next five running backs can all be lumped into one big tier. Each of these backs comes with their own pros and cons, and picking which to target will likely be a matter of preference and team situation. I cannot stress enough how I’m really splitting hairs here, and my preferences within this tier literally shift from day to day. For today, though, Taylor earns the final top-five spot because I’m the least concerned about his “flaws” out of this group. Taylor has the pedigree (he was an early second-round pick in the NFL Draft), proven fantasy upside (an RB1 overall finish in 2021), and talent (his efficiency has slid in the last two years with injuries, but it was elite prior to that and picked up as 2023 was finishing). Yes, he’s a little older than some players on this list, doesn’t catch as many passes as some others, and Anthony Richardson might steal some touchdowns. But each of the other potential names for this spot comes with a flaw that concerns me more, so JT lands here.
6. Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Kyren’s fatal flaw is that he doesn’t have the pedigree of the other names on this list. A fifth-round pick in the 2022 draft, he was barely on the fantasy radar before he exploded to an RB6 finish (RB2 in points per game) in 2023. With that in mind, it is tempting to dismiss his success as just a product of a truly insane workload and Sean McVay’s system. But Williams also ranked fourth in yards created, seventh in yards over expected per carry, and third in PFF Run Grade. Not just any running back can do that, no matter how much volume they see. He did grade out horrendously as a receiver (second-worst among 61 qualified RBs according to PFF and 57th in yards per route run), but he still saw 48 targets in just 12 games. Yes, his volume is likely to regress, as it was unsustainably high last year. But I don’t buy that third-round rookie Blake Corum is a real threat to Williams’ workhorse role, at least on the ground. Coming off an elite season at 24 years old, the pros for Kyren outweigh the risks for me.
7. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
This ranking may seem low for a 25-year-old former first-round pick coming off a top-three year, especially once you consider that I’ve already argued we shouldn’t put too much stock into Etienne’s lackluster finish to the 2023 season. I’m actually slightly higher on the Clemson project than consensus for Redraft leagues. But I’m slightly more concerned about ETN for Dynasty leagues for one key reason: His rushing efficiency numbers in 2023 were closer to just good, or even mediocre, than elite, making him a large outlier on this list (aside from Taylor, who I’m giving a slight pass due to injury). Volume is king for running backs, and I expect Etienne to hold onto workhorse volume for at least another year or two … but NFL teams aren’t stupid, and a lack of elite efficiency will almost inevitably lead to a lack of elite volume. In a Dynasty format, that’s worth worrying about … but I’m still not worried enough to drop Etienne out of my top seven Dynasty RBs, so maybe it’s not that big of a deal.
8. Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
In a way, Barkley is a lot like Etienne. The second-overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft is one of the older names on this list at 27, and he’s coming off a slightly underwhelming year in terms of efficiency, at least by his standards. On the other hand, his new home in Philadelphia should be a very fantasy-friendly one, where he will dominate touches for an elite offense. Barring injury (and he has had his fair share of those), I expect Saquon to provide a few more RB1 seasons, making him a very valuable option for any contending Dynasty team.
9. De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
If Barkley and Etienne are elite Dynasty assets due to raw volume and despite mediocre efficiency, Achane is the polar opposite. No matter what rushing metric you pick, he probably ranked at the top of it in his rookie season. To pick just two, he more than doubled the next qualified player in rushing yards over expected per attempt and averaged a truly mind-blowing 7.9 yards per carry. His efficiency translated to fantasy points, too, as he averaged 20.8 Half-PPR points across his eight regular-season games with at least a 40% snap share. However, those two qualifiers point to the issue with Achane: At 5’9″ and 188 pounds, he was injured repeatedly in his first season in the NFL, and even when he did play, he never saw a full workload. This makes him perhaps the single most high-risk/high-reward player we’ve seen in recent years in fantasy football. If you guaranteed me that Achane was going to maintain anything close to his rookie-year efficiency on even a moderate lead-back workload, he would be near the top of this list. But it also wouldn’t be shocking to see him spend most of his career in part-time roles (or injured). If that is the case, Achane will need to maintain outlier-level efficiency to be a true fantasy stud, and I’m always going to bet against that happening.
10. Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
I’m not going to lie, Walker earns this spot mostly by default. Where the gaps between each of the five previous names were razor-thin, I see a large gap between Walker and any other back on this list. My biggest concern with Walker is the presence of Zach Charbonnet in Seattle — having another talented, young RB on your team is never good, especially when a new coaching staff is coming in. Walker ranked fourth-lowest in the share of his runs that went for more yards than expected according to NextGenStats in 2023; what if Mike MacDonald and Co. prefer Charbonnet’s consistency to Walker’s boom-or-bust style? And even in a lead role last season, Walker’s fantasy production was just okay. On the other hand, Walker is still a 23-year-old running back with very good draft capital who ranked in the top 12 in both PFF Rush Grade and PFF Receiving Grade last season. He has his red flags, but every other option for this spot has more, so I’m happy rounding out this list of runners with a Walker.
