Baseball is a game of inches—and in the Statcast era, those inches are measured in exit velocity, launch angle, and expected outcomes. Statcast continues to reveal which hitters are crushing expectations, which are falling flat despite loud contact, and which defy logic altogether. And while some diehards view Statcast as a departure from the traditional ways they’ve learned to understand and appreciate the game, engaging with the data is valuable — even for traditionalists — because it deepens our understanding of why things happen on the field, not just what happened.
So, let’s take a look “under the hood.” From under-the-radar sluggers barreling everything in sight, to some struggling big-names – here are a few studs, duds, and Statcast anomalies that are rewriting the story behind the box score.
STATCAST STUDS
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (OF)
When reviewing Statcast data, the phrase “blood red” is used to describe metrics that are in the 95th percentile and above – meaning, really damn good. Aaron Judge’s Statcast is just about as bloody as they get, with 100th percentile rankings in nearly all batted ball metrics – expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, barrel %, hard-hit rate, and bat speed. None of us are surprised, as Judge is Thanos, and the numbers have been astronomical.
Juan Soto, New York Mets (OF)
Juan Soto continues to demonstrate why he’s one of the premier pure hitters in baseball. His elite exit velocity, barrel rate, and sweet-spot launch angle consistently generate high-quality contact, and his expected metrics suggest that run production and hit totals should remain robust. Even with some underperformance in actual outcomes early on in 2025 (and let’s be honest, who could live up to the expectations $750 million put on a player), Statcast indicators confirm he’s hitting the ball better than nearly anyone else in the game.
Shohei Ohtani, New York Mets (OF/DH/P)
Shohei Ohtani’s Statcast profile—highlighted by elite exit velocity, a superstar-level barrel rate, and optimized launch angles—correlates directly with his remarkable power, discipline, and run production. His expected stats confirm he’s an absolute monster, and that he continues to crush elite-quality contact and deliver at the plate. Ohtani pairs his raw power with refined plate discipline to produce elite expected outcomes, making him one of the most complete offensive threats in baseball.
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (2B)
Ketel Marte’s 2025 Statcast profile shows high-quality contact at a better-than-average exit speed, elite-level barrel rates and launch angle effectiveness, and strong alignment between expected and actual metrics, signaling consistency. All these indicators combine to support his expected batting lines (.312 expected average and .615 expected slugging) and elite run creation (.423 wOBA). Marte’s batted-ball profile confirms he’s not just lucky — he’s hitting the ball hard, in the right direction, and often enough to sustain high performance.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (DH)
Kyle Schwarber’s 2025 Statcast profile highlights elite bat-to-ball skills – he hits the ball harder and barrels more often than most hitters in MLB and his launch angles are locked into the optimal zone (driving consistent fly balls and line drives), While some variance exists between expected and actual output, the underlying quality of his contact consistently fuels high offensive performance—reflected in his strong wOBA and slugging numbers. And the crazy thing – his expected metrics show repeatable contact quality with the potential for even more explosive output.
STATCAST DUDS AND ANOMALIES
DUD – Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves (2B)
Although his launch angles are acceptable, the insufficient power behind contact results in consistently low output in terms of BA, SLG, and overall offensive value. His expected metrics closely mirror outcomes, as well. Both actual wOBA (.280) and xwOBA (.290) are low and closely aligned, indicating that Albies is performing roughly in line with the quality of contact he’s generating. However, since that contact is weak, outcomes are consistently poor. Similarly, his BA and SLG align with expected values (.235 BA; .300 xSLG), underlining that there’s no hidden issue — his contact quality is the driver.
DUD – Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (2B)
In 2025, José Altuve is producing below-league-average contact in key batted-ball metrics. His low exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage mean he struggles to generate power or consistent offensive value. His launch angles are also misaligned from optimal zones. With actual outcomes mirroring expected metrics, it’s clear his output reflects weak underlying contact —not fluke bad luck. His outcomes remain lackluster because contact quality is lackluster.
ANOMALY – Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (SS/OF)
Oneil Cruz is exhibiting premium bat-to-ball skills—elite exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel rate. His expected metrics suggest considerable offensive upside, but his lower actual production shows he’s not fully capitalizing on the quality of contact. Improvements in luck, batted-ball direction, or situational hitting could unlock significantly better results and turn his quality contact into video game numbers. Closing the gap between expected and actual metrics could unlock performance on par — or beyond — that of elite peers like Soto and Judge.
ANOMALY – Vladimir Guererro Jr., Toronto Blue Jays(1B)
Remember what I said about blood-red? Yeah. Vladdy Jr. is square in that category across the board. And While Guerrero Jr. is already making elite contact — as reflected in his exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel rate — he hasn’t fully converted that into top-tier production. His xwOBA (.414) is well above his actual wOBA (.361), indicating a performance disconnect and a strong case for potential power and run creation gains. If outcomes align more closely with his underlying metrics, his overall offensive value should rise appreciably.
ONE MORE ANOMALY – Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics (1B)
Tyler Soderstrom’s Statcast indicators reveal an above-average exit velocity and hard-hit frequency, strong barrel and launch angle metrics, and healthy expected offensive values that outpace actual stats. And the numbers are decent, don’t get me wrong. But with the abundant red in his profile, I would expect him to be producing at a higher level. And the underlying metrics agree with me –a clear ceiling for higher-level production. If his quality contact begins to align more consistently with outcomes — through improved launch angle/distribution, or simply better luck — these metrics suggest his batting average, slugging, and overall value may rise sharply in the near future.
