Do you have trouble making start/sit decisions within your team? Worse yet, do you often find yourself making the wrong decisions? Does this create angst that takes fantasy football from fun to frustrating?
I hear the catchphrase “Trust the Process” regarding start/sit decisions; however, upon drilling down, most players don’t really have an idea of what that process looks like. There are many different processes that can work, and I continually refine my Start/Sit process each year; however, I do this in the off-season, not during the season, as I’ve already made sound decisions, and I owe my process a 14-week sample.
In the 2021 season, I had an agonizing decision with 3 possible players to start in one start. I naturally crowd-sourced the information and started the wrong person that week, which lost the week, and had a team that finished in 7th place and out of the playoffs. If I had started either of the other 2 WR there, I would have won that week, then just played the rest of the season the same way. I would have won every round of the playoffs, having more points than any playoff team week 15, 16, & 17. My takeaway was probably different than most other owners, and it was simply this….. Crowdsourcing creates luck as it isn’t a system; it’s adding variance to the situation.
Moving into the 2022 season, I took the “expert” who had recommended the wrong player and used his weekly rankings across all my leagues to create start-sit decisions. My winning percentage increased exponentially, which took what was a hobby to a part-time job that actually earned taxable income. I continued to follow this exact “expert” in 2023 & 2024 for start / sit decisions. I simply start the highest-ranked guy each week. I don’t play for upside, as that is baked into rankings. I want to play for the midpoint with the ultimate goal of playing in week 15.
Most leagues I play in, half the teams make the playoffs, and with that said, I try to build a team that gets to 8 wins. The earlier in the season I can get to 8 wins, the better my chances of being profitable. My process is to draft upside and play weekly to maximize points. Swinging for the fences allows for too many strikeouts. You need to keep compiling points all week, every week. Keep the Main Thing the Main Thing, getting more points than your opponent, and in Median leagues, scoring in the top half of the league.
In 2025, I made a decision to change which “expert” I use for rankings; however, the important thing is to stay consistent. Start / Sit decision has never been a strength for me, so I outsource this service to my favorite “expert” so I can focus on where my strengths lie.
Develop a process for start / sit and eliminate the following traps from your start sit decisions: take a chance, shoot for upside, swing for fences, & trust your gut. These aren’t real processes; they are all lottery tickets or 16-game parlays. Sure, they win once in a while, but over time, the patient, methodical, process-based player will beat you and take your money.
