In some ways, things are getting clearer with only five weeks in the NFL season…but in others, they are as muddled as ever. Only 13 teams are over .500, with another four sitting right at .500 with 6-6 records. Those four teams are sitting in two divisions, and only the two division winners will be moving on, with the other two staying home for the playoffs.
The Chiefs and Bills are the only two teams to clinch a playoff spot, meaning only five more are up for grabs in the AFC. And in the NFC, not even the 11-1 Lions have clinched a playoff spot yet.
Two weeks ago, I mentioned that at this time of year, usually the better teams who have something to play for win, while the lower teams tend to lose. So, of course, what happens? There were a handful of upsets. This week was back to form, with 13 of the top 14 ranked teams winning. All nine of the lowest-ranked teams lost this week. And everyone in the middle jockeyed for position.
1. Detroit Lions
If they beat the Packers on TNF, they will certainly remain in the top spot for another week. If the Packers go into Detroit and win though, then chances are, they are going to fall. Their defense is dealing with plenty of injuries, and it’s starting to look like it could be their achillies heel.
2. Buffalo Bills
They are playing like the best team in the AFC, and they have an opportunity to win out and get the number one seed if the Chiefs lose even one game. Josh Allen is playing fantastic football, James Cook has taken the next step, and the defense is playing as well as it has all year.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs keep finding ways to win, but how long will it last? They easily could have lost each of their past 4 games, not to mention a handful of others earlier in the season. Patrick Mahomes is turning the ball over far too often, the offensive line is lacking, and although we know they can turn it on at any time, their lackluster play cannot be ignored.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
They could be the best team in the NFL after this win last week against the Ravens, but with Goedert hurt, Smith banged up, and inconsistent play from Jalen Hurts, they still have something left to prove over the next few weeks and into the playoffs.
5. Minnesota Vikings
This could be the Vikings or the Packers. They are both good teams, but are they great? It is yet to be determined; however, right now, they have a better record than the Packers, so it is only fair to put them ahead. Their pass defense could be a weakness, but their run defense is excellent, and they find ways to win.
6. Green Packers
They have a chance to show the world how good they are this week. They head to Detroit to take on the NFC North and NFC leading Lions. If they win, they will definitely move up a spot or two, and they will also bump the Lions down.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers offense looked as good as it has all season in week 13, and if they want to hold onto their division lead, they will need that to continue. They have an excellent defense, and if their offense can play at a high level, they can make a run to the Super Bowl.
8. Baltimore Ravens
They lost a tough one against a really good Eagles team, and the most surprising thing was how bad the offense looked. Perhaps this bye week will help get them back on track as they look to lock down a wild card spot and make a run at the top spot in the AFC North too.
9. Denver Broncos
Their defense struggled on MNF against the Browns, but they are headed on a much-needed bye. The good news is that their offense put up more than 40 points, and they still found a way to win. They are getting excellent QB play from rookie Bo Nix and have a real shot at a playoff spot if he continues to play this well.
10. Los Angeles Chargers
Big road win for them in Atlanta last week, and they have an even bigger game this week against the Chiefs. A win would definitely prove that they belong in the top 10 and could even move them onto the top 6-7.
11. Seattle Seahawks
They are on a roll and control their own destiny in the NFC West now. Geno Smith is playing great, they have a great group of receivers, and the defense has gotten hot again after starting the season strong and then looking like Swiss cheese for a handful of weeks.
12. Houston Texans
They are probably not the 12th-best team in the league, but they have a good record and are leading their division. They have a team that can make some noise come playoff time, but they need last seasons C.J. Stroud to come back.
13. Washington Commanders
They are on the bye this week but got a much-needed win last week against the Titans. They were starting to slip, but this bye should get them healthy and ready to make a final push towards holding down a wild card spot.
14. Tampa Bay Bucs
Had they not lost Chris Godwin for the season and Mike Evans for multiple weeks, they would be leading the NFC South. Still, they are in a position to win the division if they keep playing good football. Baker Mayfield is a gamer, and their run game has come on strong.
15. Los Angeles Rams
They have turned it on since they got Healthy and they have a proven winner at QB with Stafford.
16. Arizona Cardinals
They lost a tough one to the Vikings and now have a must-win game against the Seahawks. If they lose, they can kiss their chances at the division goodbye. They need to get better QB play from Murray.
17. Atlanta Falcons:
Based on tiebreakers, the 6-6 Falcons are currently the fourth seed in the NFC playoff picture…someone coming out of the NFC South will be, but if Cousins keeps turning the ball over, it won’t be the Falcons.
18. Miami Dolphins:
The Dolphins lost a tough game in Green Bay last week that they were never really in. Tua Tagovailoa just cannot win in cold temperatures.
19. Indianapolis Colts:
The Colts are doing what they have to do at this stage of the game. They beat another team that is worse than them and are sitting at 6-7 one spot outside of the playoffs at the moment.
20. Dallas Cowboys:
At 5-7 the Cowboys would be ninth seed in the AFC, but in the NFC, it only puts them at no.12. There are just too many teams to leapfrog.
21. San Francisco 49ers:
The same can be said of the 5-7 49ers, except because they are in the NFC West, they have twice the odds of the Cowboys sneaking into the playoffs…granted, the difference is 12% compared to the Cowboys 6%, “But you’re saying there’s a chance.”
22. Cincinnati Bengals:
The Bengals are 4-8 with only a 3% chance of making the playoffs, and if they defeat the Cowboys this week, their odds skyrocket to 4%.
23. New Orleans Saints:
The Saints are also sitting at 4-8 with virtually no shot at the playoffs and just lost Taysom Hill for the rest of the season.
24. Cleveland Browns:
The Browns put up a spirited game this week in Denver, but three Jameis Winston interceptions were just too much to overcome. At 3-9 they are clinging to less than a 1% chance at seeing the postseason.
25. Tennessee Titans:
The Titans are sitting in the exact same position as the Browns, 3-9, and less than a 1% shot. At this point, players on all of these teams need to audition for 2025.
26. New York Jets:
And the Jets are coming in at that same 3-9 record. Rodgers looks his age, and this season has been an utter failure.
27. Chicago Bears:
The Bears actually have four wins on the season but find themselves in the monstrous NFC North. And those wins all came in the first six weeks of the season…they have now lost six in a row.
28. Carolina Panthers:
The Panthers find themselves with the no.15 seed in the NFC and the last team not to be eliminated yet…or, to put it another way, the next team that will be eliminated in the NFC.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars:
The Jaguars season has seemingly been over for a while. Losing Trevor Lawrence for the rest of the year due to a concussion has put the final nail in their coffin for the 2024 season.
30. New England Patriots:
The Patriots have shown some heart this season, but the scoreboard is what the scoreboard is. Last season, they were 3-10, and this season they are 3-10.
31. Las Vegas Raiders:
At 2-10, the Raiders are truly one of the worst teams in the league…I feel vindicated because, before week one, I listed them as the no.32 team in the league, dead last.
32. New York Giants:
This Giants team is a disaster. The week after the drop Daniel Jones they lose Tommy Devito to an injury. At last year’s draft, they desperately tried to trade to move up and get Drake Maye but failed. They now don’t have Jones or anyone to replace him. This is literally a complete tear-down, all the way to the studs.
