With the All-Star break and Home Run Derby upon us, let’s take a look under the hood and examine our MLB home run leaders. Statcast doesn’t just count the bombs—it measures the quality of each one. We’ve analyzed the top 10 players in home runs as of July 14, looking at actual vs. expected home runs (xHR), and how many of those were nukes (no-doubters) versus soft (doubters). Here’s what the data reveals.
10. Junior Caminero (TB)
• HR: 23
• xHR: 19.7
• HR – xHR: +3.3
• Doubters: 6 (26.1%)
• No-Doubters: 12 (43.5%)
Caminero is showing that his pop is more than hype, outperforming expectations by over three home runs. He’s benefiting a bit from favorable conditions, but nearly half his homers left zero room for doubt.
9. James Wood (WSH)
• HR: 24
• xHR: 22.8
• HR – xHR: +1.2
• Doubters: 4 (16.7%)
• No-Doubters: 13 (54.2%)
Wood’s power looks legit — low doubter rate, strong xHR alignment, and more than half of his blasts were no-doubters. He’s not just a future star—he’s already there.
8. Riley Greene (DET)
• HR: 24
• xHR: 20.2
• HR – xHR: +3.8
• Doubters: 7 (29.2%)
• No-Doubters: 11 (45.8%)
Greene’s numbers suggest he’s slightly outpacing his raw power metrics, but with nearly half of his homers being no-doubters, the talent is real.
7. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)
• HR: 25
• xHR: 22.9
• HR – xHR: +2.1
• Doubters: 12 (48%)
• No-Doubters: 9 (36.0%)
Crow-Armstrong is flashing surprising pop, but a high doubter rate and low no-doubter percentage suggest he might regress unless he starts squaring up more consistently.
6. Seiya Suzuki (CHC)
• HR: 25
• xHR: 23.2
• HR – xHR: +1.8
• Doubters: 7 (28.0%)
• No-Doubters: 11 (44.0%)
Suzuki continues to provide solid power from the right side, with a well-balanced HR profile and a small edge over expected totals.
5. Kyle Schwarber (PHI)
• HR: 30
• xHR: 27.7
• HR – xHR: +2.3
• Doubters: 3 (10.0%)
• No-Doubters: 17 (56.7%)
No one questions Schwarber’s strength — his no-doubter rate is among the highest in the league. His low doubter count makes him one of the most dangerous hitters in any park.
4. Eugenio Suárez (AZ)
• HR: 31
• xHR: 29.4
• HR – xHR: +1.6
• Doubters: 8 (25.8%)
• No-Doubters: 19 (61.3%)
Suárez is back to his slugging ways, and the data confirms it: over 60% of his homers were no-doubters — elite power.
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
• HR: 32
• xHR: 26.8
• HR – xHR: +5.2
• Doubters: 11 (34.4%)
• No-Doubters: 15 (46.9%)
Ohtani isn’t just hitting bombs — he’s obliterating expectations. A +5.2 HR differential and elite hard contact make him a top performer.
2. Aaron Judge (NYY)
• HR: 35
• xHR: 34.5
• HR – xHR: +0.5
• Doubters: 10 (28.6%)
• No-Doubters: 18 (51.4%)
Judge’s consistency is unmatched. While he’s right in line with expectations, his power profile is rock solid with more than half of his HRs leaving no doubt. Thanos is inevitable.
1. Cal Raleigh (SEA)
• HR: 38
• xHR: 30.1
• HR – xHR: +7.9
• Doubters: 12 (31.6%)
• No-Doubters: 16 (42.1%)
Raleigh is the league leader in home runs and by far the biggest Statcast overachiever, crushing nearly 8 more homers than expected. His blend of aggressive loft and fly ball power is clearly working —but can it hold through the dog days of summer?
