The biggest thing for the Atlanta Braves is health. Ronald Acuna needs to come back from injury without issue, however, we do need to allow for some patience. The presence of Drake Baldwin should help offset Sean Murphy’s absence, but the Braves need everyone to stay healthy. That also goes for Chris Sale after a dominant 2024 season. While there is plenty of talent in the minor leagues, the back end of Atlanta’s rotation certainly has its share of question marks with Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson both in the mix.
Breakout – Spencer Schwellenbach
Last year, Spencer Schwellenbach made his presence felt with a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts while making his MLB debut. Schwellenbach averaged 96.2 miles per hour with his fastball as he built on his minor league success. After being drafted in the second round in 2021, it’s been a quick trip through Atlanta’s system beginning in 2023. In any of his stops, Schwellenbach didn’t post an ERA higher than 2.63 while generally striking out a batter per inning. His rotation spot secure, the right-hander is slated to continue on that success.
Sleeper – AJ Smith-Shawver
The back end of Atlanta’s rotation is certainly questionable so that provides a strong path for AJ Smith-Shawver towards regular innings. On Thursday, Smith-Shawver struck out eight over four innings as he continues a strong spring. There is plenty of talent here but Smith-Shawver is still working on putting it together and generating results. He made his MLB debut last year with 4.1 shutout innings, but he failed to find success in Triple-A with a 4.85 ERA. We don’t have to worry about strikeouts here, but Smith-Shawver does have to harness his control.
Bust – Ronald Acuna
It pains me to say this, and by no means is it a knock against Ronald Acuna. There’s no disputing his talent, but we need to be fair here. It’s not easy to return from an ACL tear and we have to be patient with Acuna. Considering the Braves plan to play deep into October, it makes sense that their going to be cautious with their prized outfielder as it’s all about the long term outlook here. Acuna’s timeline currently sits at mid-May, and there’s a clear path for him to miss the first two months of the season. Plus, when he returns, his stolen bases are going to be lacking as he’s proven to have a clear hesitancy to run in the past when returning from major injury.
Hitting Prospect to Know – Drake Baldwin
Atlanta’s system is quite thin with hitting prospects, but Drake Baldwin has been thrust into the spotlight entering the season. Baldwin spent 52 games in Double-A last year in one of the worst parks for hitters which helps to explain his .249 batting average with four home runs and 35 RBI. After being promoted to Triple-A, Baldwin’s production jumped to a .298 average with 12 home runs and 55 RBI in 72 games. After a strong 2023 season in High-A, we can expect something else as he continues to climb through the Braves’ system.
Pitching Prospect to Know – Hurston Waldrep
When it comes to pitching prospects in Atlanta’s system, you can really just take your pick at this point. Hurston Waldrep had two rough starts with the Braves last year, but remains poised to make an impact in 2025. He struck out about an inning between Double-A and Triple-A last year had success with a 2.92 and 3.38 ERA, respectively. Waldrep does have to improve his control but the pieces are in place as he continues to develop his pitches.
C: Drake Baldwin
Prediction: .245 AVG, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 45 R, 0 SB
After Sean Murphy broke a rib, Drake Baldwin will start the season behind the plate. The top prospect will likely parlay that into additional playing time after a strong minor league season in 2024. Baldwin hit .276 with 16 home runs and 88 RBI in 124 games and he should continue that this season. With a 13.1% walk rate and 17.2% strikeout rate, Baldwin’s solid plate approach will help.
1B: Matt Olson
Prediction: .250 AVG, 33 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 1 SB
We saw Matt Olson’s ISO decrease to .210 last season, however it’s closer in line to his career levels. After hitting .247 last year with 29 home runs and 98 RBI last year, a slight rebound could be in store. Olson’s production, in a strong Atlanta lineup, is nothing to dismiss as he’s one of the best first baseman in the game. His 12.4% barrel rate and 47.4% hard hit rate should lead to continued success.
2B: Ozzie Albies
Prediction: .265 AVG, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 90 R, 12 SB
Nothing against Ozzie Albies, but whenever I look at him, I expect more in the way of power and speed. With that being said, he also deserves his share of respect for his RBI and runs scored ability. We do need to acknowledge that he’s not a 33 home run hitter as his ISO has been up and down over the past few years. For all of his production and skill, his 5.6% barrel rate and 32% hard hit limits that power upside.
3B: Austin Riley
Prediction: .270 AVG, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 90 R, 1 SB
After playing just 110 games last year, we’d like Austin Riley to remain healthy in 2025. When he was on the field though, he did produce with 19 home runs and 56 RBI. Riley’s 14.9% barrel rate and 53.4% hard hit supports future success and he’ll once again be one of the top third baseman.
SS: Orlando Arcia
Prediction: .235 AVG, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 60 R, 2 SB
There is nothing truly exciting about Orlando Arcia, but it works for Atlanta. He’s a dependable veteran who takes advantage of a strong lineup. In each of the last two seasons, Arcia has 17 home runs, so why not go for a third season. Arcia had just a 5.3% barrel rate last year while hitting .218 with a .206 xBA.
LF: Jurickson Profar
Prediction: .270 AVG, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 85 R, 10 SB
The outfielder is looking to build on a strong season with San Diego as he joined Atlanta this winter. Jurickson Profar’s ISO increased to .179 while his barrel rate jumped to 7.2% which led to 24 home runs and 85 RBI. Profar also stole 10 bases while scoring 94 runs. There’s nothing to suggest Profar can’t repeat that performance this year.
CF: Michael Harris
Prediction: .280 AVG, 21 HR, 80 RBI, 80 R, 20 SB
While there’s a lot to like about Michael Harris, it’s unclear how much more potential or upside he has at this point. Last year, Harris hit 16 home runs while stealing 10 bases in 110 games. Harris’ .155 ISO doesn’t foreshadow that large of an uptick in home runs but his solid 9.7% barrel should lead to continued production.
RF: Ronald Acuna
Prediction: .285 AVG, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 100 R, 27 SB
The biggest question here is when will Ronald Acuna return. We know that as soon as he’s ready, the Braves will insert their superstar right back into the lineup. However, how much will Acuna run and will they take it easy at first? At this point, we should plan on Acuna missing the first month of the season and then returning after a dynamite 2023 in which he hit .337 with 41 home runs and 73 stolen bases.
DH: Marcell Ozuna
Prediction: .270 AVG, 38 HR, 95 RBI, 85 R, 0 SB
Over the past two seasons, the power output from Marcell Ozuna has been insane. He hit 40 home runs while driving in 100 runs and then followed that up with 39 and 104 last year. His .302 batting average came with a .359 BABIP, but even still, Ozuna is far from a liability there. Between his 15.4% barrel rate and 53.3% hard hit rate, Ozuna simply punishes the ball.
SP1: Chris Sale
Prediction: 2.90 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 200 K, 15 W
I’d love to say that we can trust Chris Sale to stay healthy, and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t, but there has to be some doubts based on his history. In 177.2 innings last year, Sale struck out 11.40 batters per nine innings while walking just 1.98. When he’s mound, the left-hander is one of the best starters in baseball.
SP2: Reynaldo Lopez
Prediction: 3.35 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 160 K, 10 W
Last year, Reynaldo Lopez returned to the rotation in a big way. Lopez had a 1.99 ERA, but his other metrics showed a more diverse story with a 3.94 xERA and 2.92 FIP. He did benefit from an 87% strand rate, but Lopez proved he can be a capable starting pitcher while striking out more than a batter per inning.
SP3: Spencer Schwellenbach
Prediction: 3.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 155 K, 11 W
After tearing through the minor leagues, Spencer Schwellenbach started 21 games for Atlanta last year. Despite posting a ground ball rate in the mid-50% range throughout to this point, it dipped to 41.6% with the Braves. It didn’t impact him too much though as Schwellenbach finished with a 3.35 ERA (3.44 xERA) while setting the stage for 2025. He struck out more than a batter per inning, but of even greater importance, he walked just 1.67 batters per nine innings.
SP4: Grant Holmes
Prediction: 3.95 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 115 K, 7 W
Grant Holmes doesn’t strike us as a typical, young, high upside, Brave starting pitcher, but that doesn’t mean we should totally discount him. Last year, he had a 3.56 ERA in 68.1 innings after returning to the major leagues. He struck out a batter per inning while keeping opposing hitters both off the bases (1.98 walks per nine innings) and off balance (6.7% barrel rate).
SP5: Ian Anderson
Prediction: 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 90 K, 6 W
Who knows what we will get out of Ian Anderson this season. Due to injuries, it’s been two full seasons since we last saw him in the major leagues. In 68 minor league innings last year, Anderson did strikeout a batter per inning while posting a 3.44 ERA. Is he capable of picking back up where he left off?
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Prediction: 2.75 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 65 K, 30 SV
With 34 saves last year, Raisel Iglesias just continues to be one of the more dependable, and better, closers in the game. Not only did Iglesias lock down the game, but he did so with a 1.95 ERA (2.24 xERA) so there was little drama. He’s not over the top from a strikeout perspective, but we’ll take one per inning. With a walk rate of just 1.69 batters per inning, the basepaths are generally pretty clear.
SU1: Pierce Johnson
Prediction: 3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 75 K, 3 SV
Two years ago, Pierce Johnson did save 13 games, so he has some experience in the role. The problem though is that despite 10.70 strikeouts per nine innings, he does walk a tight rope at times. Last year, that was reflected in 3.99 walks per nine innings and a 3.67 ERA.
SU2: Aaron Bummer
Prediction: 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 65 K, 0 SV
Aaron Bummer outpitched his 3.58 ERA last year, 2.80 xERA and 2.23 FIP, and should continue with similar results this year. Bummer generates both ground balls (59.7%) and strikeouts (11.22 per nine innings) at a high level while keeping the ball in the park (0.33 home runs per nine innings). That’s what we want to see out of our relievers.
