Now that the NFL fantasy season’s trade deadlines are upon us and the playoffs are only a few weeks away, as a sports fan, it’s always important to look ahead. And aside from the NFL season winding, it’s also the time of year when the baseball season ramps up. The GM meetings will take place within a month, and we are now in the Hot Stove Season.
We are also in the silly season…when crazy trades are proposed, and massive contracts are doled out. Unlike many sports, MLB free agents tend to drag on all the way into the new year and often into Spring Training.
This season, there has been a ton of early chatter for the jewel of this year’s free agent class, Juan Soto. And even though he’s a Scott Boros client, there are signs this may get done by Thanksgiving. Teams are flying out to meet Soto and Boros; big numbers have been mentioned. Of course, with the numbers flying around, only big market teams are in the mix. And Boros is a master at playing one team against the other.
After losing the World Series and trading a ton to acquire him, the Yankees do need to be the team to sign him. They have the money and used to have the swagger when Daddy Steinbrenner was around, but George’s sons are looking more and more like Fredo Corleone. And it remains to be seen if they have what it takes to pull this off. They did re-sign Aaron Judge, but that contract, (9yr/$360M), pales in comparison to the numbers that are being bounced around for Soto.
The other New York team has all the money in the world to spend on him, as do the defending World Series champion Dodgers. And the Red Sox have reportedly flown out and met with Soto for three hours. There may not have been a more fateful three-hour tour since Gilligan and the Skipper got on the SS Minnow.
But this begs the question…is Soto worth the money and the hype? The best way to answer the question is yes…and no. To begin with, he’s only entering his age 26 season, so he’s just presumably entering his prime years. But, this isn’t about what he’ll do in the next six years, it’s what he’ll do in second half of this contract. At age 26, Boros will surely want this to be a 15-year deal, taking Soto to age 40.
I’m sure most teams are proposing 10-12-year deals, and that just won’t get it done. This is going to realistically take some very creative financing, similar to what the Dodgers did with Ohtani. It may also take some options on the back end, whether they are player, team, or mutual.
There have been some famous contracts with deferred money, and Bobby Bonilla may be the most famous. It’s now known as “Bobby Bonilla Day,” the day the Mets still pay Bonilla $1.19M each year. The Mets will continue to pay Bonilla until 2035. But Ohtani’s deal takes the cake. He got a 10-year/$700M deal, with $68M deferred each year, paid to him from 2034 to 2043.
When negotiating contracts, players always want to surpass their most recent contemporaries to keep salaries going up, and that’s what their union wants, too. But Soto is not worth $70M per year, with or without deferred money. The way Ohtani’s deal is structured, and for the purpose of the Dodgers’ annual payroll and the luxury tax, his AAV is $46M.
Judge’s AAV is $40M, and Mike Trout’s is just a tick over $35.5M. Soto will want more than $40M per year, and he deserves it based on what he’s already accomplished in the game. His WAR is already 36.4, and he has already hit 201 HRs. And he has an OPS of .953. He legitimately can get to 600 HRs and 1800 RBIs and runs.
Only six men in history have accomplished this: Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Willy Mays. Frank Thomas missed the feat by 14 HRs…Ken Griffey Jr missed it by 138 runs. Barring something crazy or God-forbid, tragic, Soto will go down as one of the all-time greats.
Time to put my GM cap on, what is a fair deal that could actually get a deal done. Anything over $40M per season makes him the highest-paid position player, not named Ohtani. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander each had a short-term deal with an AAV of $43.3M. As GM, I wouldn’t want to guarantee money for his 40s. A 13-year deal takes him to age 38. Offering him $44M per season will give him the second-highest AAV ever, and over 13 years, the deal would be 13yr/$572M. And although I wouldn’t guarantee it, I’d build in two option seasons, which would take it over $600M.
But at some point, it gets to be the silly season, and a team just has to pass. In looking at other mega deals, is Soto worth two Bryce Harper’s (13yr/$330M) or Bobby Witt’s (11yr/$288M)? Is he worth two Jose Altuve’s who’ve gotten 12 years and $273M in his last two contracts? Is he worth three Julio Rodriguez’s (12yr/$209M)? Based on their contracts, he’ll have to be. So, although I’d love to have him, there comes a point when it doesn’t make fiscal sense for a team, regardless of how big their market is.
Some team will surely guarantee those extra years, taking him into his 40s, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Boros does end up making Soto the highest-paid player in the game, surpassing Ohtani’s $700M deal. Like I said, it’s the silly season.
