Simply put, it has not been an NCAA Tournament to remember for anyone making BOLD predictions. We were left with an Elite 8 that had 7 combined 1 and 2-seeds. The best players in the country played like the best players in the country. The best conference in the country performed the best. But now that the dust has settled, we are left with the four best teams in the nation and should be treated to two great games on Saturday. So let’s see if we can get BOLD in predicting what will happen in these two games.
1. The Khaman Maluach breakout game
Duke center Khaman Maluach may not be a household name just yet, but he is going to be. The 18-year-old, who played for South Sudan in the Olympics and is likely to be a first-round NBA draft pick this June, has quietly been the 5th starter on this Duke team. But Maluach is a 7-footer who is coming into his own lately, playing 31 minutes and putting up 14 points and nine rebounds against Alabama. Statistically, he’s the 7th-best offensive rebounder in the country, and I expect him to be able to grab quite a few against a Houston defense that ranks outside the top 100 in defensive rebounding rate and features no frontcourt player taller than 6’8”. Remember the name now.
2. BOTH games go UNDER
I am calling my shot that both games go under their Vegas total Saturday. First, in general, teams tend to shoot worse in domed football stadiums than in the friendly confines of the arenas they’re used to playing in all season long. Secondly, these are expected to be close games, both with a spread of less than 5 points. Close games late in the NCAA Tournament tend to slow to a screeching halt in the second half, as teams know the gravity of the moment and want to generate the best shot possible offensively. I think these two combinations, along with every team ranking in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency, will cause these games to see fewer total points than expected.
3. Florida beats Auburn by double-digits
I think Florida has a few things going for them against Auburn: first, they already beat Auburn 90-81 AT Auburn, without starter Alijah Martin. Secondly, I envision Auburn struggling with foul trouble in this game. Florida has considerably more depth in the frontcourt than Auburn, so I expect them to attack Auburn early and often in the post and get Auburn’s bigs in foul trouble, and I expect them to cruise to a double-digit victory.
4. Cooper Flagg struggles (and Kon Kneuppel shines)
Don’t get it twisted – I think Cooper Flagg is one of the best freshmen we have seen in college basketball in a long time, and I think he’s going to be an outstanding NBA player. But I don’t know if this game is going to be his best. I expect Flagg to be guarded by Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year Joseph Tugler. When you look at his game log, Flagg has struggled this season when guarded by physical, bigger players, and I would classify Tugler in that group. I do think there are creative ways that Jon Scheyer will look to get Flagg touches within sets, but I don’t think it’s as simple as calling a Flagg isolation every possession like some of their games can be. Also, as a corollary, Kon Kneuppel traditionally shines when Flagg struggles (or was out due to injury), so I think those two things go together.
