Florida over Texas Tech
While a potential injury to Alex Condon does hurt the Gators, my entire premise on them all season long has been that they have so much depth and so many different pathways to victory that I don’t think it will stop them on Saturday against a Texas Tech team that just spent all of their physical and mental energy coming from behind to beat Arkansas. I could make the argument that Maryland poses more matchup issues for Florida than Texas Tech does, and the Gators dominated the glass and controlled the second half of that matchup without a major scare.
Duke over Alabama
This one is scary. Because what happens if Alabama makes 25 3-point shots like they did against BYU? Well, they would win. But I don’t think that happens against this Duke team. From a simple strategy standpoint, BYU was sending defenders under ball screens, whereas Duke likes to switch. The Blue Devils are simply the best team in the sport right now with very little weakness. And credit to their coaching staff – you rarely see this Duke team get caught out of position defensively or make mistakes with the ball offensively, which makes a team that already has an abundance of talent really difficult to beat.
Auburn over Michigan State
I genuinely believe that Michigan had a better chance of beating Auburn than their in-state rivals do on Sunday. Michigan could match up with the overall size and strength of Auburn, and I don’t know how Michigan State can do so. Michigan State’s most recent two losses both came against teams with great size 1-5, which is a trait that Auburn (and a few other potential opponents down the road) do indeed have. I can’t even make the hot 3-point shooting argument like I made for Alabama, because Michigan State is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation. If Michigan State were to win, it would be a complete Tom Izzo master-class of coming up with a game plan for a team that is out-manned.
Houston over Tennessee
The real winner here is lovers of defensive basketball. Put the kids to bed before this one comes on, because it’s going to be a physical slugfest that would look more appropriate being settled in the back alleys of Indianapolis than Lucas Oil Stadium. The Tennessee guards have been tremendous so far in this NCAA Tournament, but it’s hard for me to pick a team that is trying to beat Houston at their own game. Their last two NCAA Tournament losses have come against teams with elite offensive prowess that can out-score Houston, both ranking in the top-10 in Offensive Efficiency, and I still think that is the formula for beating them, not getting into one of their patented rock fights.
