Last week, we went 4/5 OUTRIGHT in our upset picks, our best mark of the season. Let’s see if we can keep our hot streak going this week!
Texas over Ole Miss
Ironically enough, schedule symmetry has worked out perfectly to tell the tale of the current play of these two teams — Texas is coming off of wins vs Missouri and Texas A&M, while Ole Miss has lost to those same two teams. Both of these two teams will look to drain the shot clock and play tough-minded basketball, and I think Tre Johnson’s shot creation will play a large part in Texas being able to pull off the upset.
Arizona State over Arizona
The last time we saw the Sun Devils, they were very competitive against Iowa State before foul trouble took its toll in the 2nd half. They also got 4-star freshman Joson Sanon back from injury in that game — he certainly makes this team better — and they will be playing on their home floor. Arizona is a team that I think is ripe to be upset in general, as they are fairly dependent on difficult shot-making by Caleb Love offensively.
North Carolina over Pittsburgh
I faded the Tar Heels last week, but am back on them to pull off this upset. When you look at the Tar Heels’ season as a whole, they have had issues defending bigger guards and post-scorers. Pitt has neither. I also think UNC could be due for some shooting regression after shooting under 27% from 3 in two of their last three games.
Dayton over St Bonaventure
The Flyers may actually be a road favorite by the time this game tips off, but right now, they project as a slight underdog. All of Dayton’s metrics are skewed by a 3-game losing streak in conference play where they really played poorly offensively and ran into some hot shooting from other teams. They have since switched up their starting lineup by inserting freshman Amael L’Etang and gone on a 3-game win streak, whereas the Bonnies have lost 3 straight.
Vanderbilt over Oklahoma
Oklahoma is a team that started out the season 13-0 with neutral floor wins over Arizona and Michigan. But once conference play started, they have regressed. They have only beaten South Carolina and Arkansas in conference play, the two worst teams in the loaded SEC. Defensively, Oklahoma has a very similar profile to Kentucky — good at defending the 3-point line but soft on defending shots inside the arc. And Vanderbilt just beat Kentucky last Saturday. This is a bet on Vandy being able to copy and paste their game plan and Oklahoma not being as good as they are perceived to be.