This game is a matchup of two head coaches who used to work together in Los Angeles (O’Connell was the OC for McVay). These two teams run very similar offenses, and they should have an excellent idea of what each other wants to do. Here is how this game should play out:
When Minnesota has the ball:
The key for the Vikings is for Sam Darnold to make good decisions when facing the Rams defensive pressure. The Rams have a terrific pass rush and can force a lot of bad throws from Darnold if they can get him to be a little skittish in the pocket.
Jones or Akers? Or both?
Aaron Jones has run well, but as of late, it seems like the Vikings are leaning on Cam Akers especially in and around the goal line. Akers is very familiar with the Rams, as he used to play there. Both running backs will be used interchangeably.
Vikings Best Matchup:
The Rams are the best team against slot receivers in the NFL, so the Vikings may lean more toward using Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson than Justin Jefferson. Against the Lions, Sam Darnold was not able to find Jordan Addison (only one catch). This cannot happen as the Rams really struggle against the deep pass where Addison should shine.
When Los Angeles has the ball:
If there is anyone who can withstand the Vikings pass rush, it’s Matthew Stafford. He’s not afraid to take a hit, and he’s at his best when teams pressure him.
Kyren Is Key:
The Rams want to establish the run with Kyren Williams, but Minnesota has one of the toughest run defenses in the league. They sometimes suffer against explosive running backs such as Jahmyr Gibbs, but Williams runs inside the tackles and not outside like Gibbs does. Look for McVay to give Williams about 18 to 22 touches, mainly to keep the Vikings defense honest.
Can Kupp Be Impactful?
The Vikings struggle against slot receivers so this could be one of those games where Cooper Kupp goes off. He’s been pretty non-existent over the past few games but this should be a game where they rely on him more than usual. Tight End Tyler Higbee is back and healthy again and could be a good target in the red zone. Puka Nacua is the engine to the Rams’ offense and they will move him around to make sure that the Vikings don’t shadow him with Stephon Gilmore.
Conclusion:
Even though the Rams are the higher seed, the Vikings are a 2.5-point favorite. This game is completely about Sam Darnold. If he plays well, Minnesota should win; if he plays like he did against Detroit, they will likely lose. For the Rams, Stafford just needs to be Stafford. He is great in big moments.
