This week is a huge line of demarcation in the college basketball season. With most teams not in action over their winter break, there isn’t a whole lot of movement going on this week. However, the change in calendar comes with a change in scheduling as non-conference play comes to an end and conference play begins around the nation. Depending on who you are, that can be good news or bad news, but regardless, it will be a departure from a lot of the non-conference blowouts we have seen so far this season. Here are 6 teams that find themselves on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament heading into conference play and what they can do to either get off of the bubble or have it burst.
Nebraska
Fred Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers are riding high off of their Championship at the Diamond Head Classic. They currently only have 2 losses, to St Marys and Michigan State, and sit at 39th in Kenpom. Go 10-10 in the brutal Big Ten, and that should be enough to keep the Huskers dancing for the 2nd straight season.
Drake
The Bulldogs are an interesting case study in many ways. First off, their coach came from a Division II school and brought most of his starting lineup with him. So you have a bunch of guys from a D-II program that started the season 11-0 in non-conference play, which is impressive in its own right. But there’s a catch. They don’t boast any Quadrant 1 victories at the moment and would only potentially have one opportunity for one in the Missouri Valley on the road at Bradley. But at a certain point, the staggering win total would be enough to get them in the field, right? If the Bulldogs don’t want to test their fate with the committee, just win the Missouri Valley Tournament!
Northwestern
Chris Collins’ crew let two Quadrant 1 victories slip away already this season, blowing second-half leads on the road at both Dayton and Iowa, and the Wildcats now sit at 49th on KenPom. In my opinion, they’re just on the outside looking in at the moment but will have plenty more Quadrant 1 opportunities in Big Ten play. They’ve already taken advantage of one, beating Illinois at home.
Utah State
I wouldn’t blame you for not thinking of Utah State as NCAA Tournament mainstays, but they’ve made two in a row and are in a position to make it three, sitting at 11-1 heading into conference play. The Mountain West appears to be a very stratified league again this year, with the potential for a great win against the top teams or a bad loss against the bottom every single night. The Aggies will likely have 5 Quadrant 1 opportunities, so pick up a few of those, and if they can avoid stubbing their toe they should be in the field again.
LSU
The “Bayou Bengals” haven’t done anything to impress yet this season, with wins over Kansas State, UCF, and Florida State as the headliners. These teams are not close to hearing their names called on Selection Sunday. Fortunately for LSU, the SEC is a Quadrant 1 gauntlet, with all 9 of LSU’s conference road games projected to be Quadrant 1 opportunities, in addition to a few at home. There are plenty of opportunities for the Tigers to win their way into the field.
Louisville
Last week, we opined about SMU’s breakout opportunity in the ACC. I think Louisville has the same opportunity. There is room for a 4th great team in the ACC after Duke, Clemson, and North Carolina. Louisville has the talent and the coaching to become that team. Finish 4th in the ACC, and I think they’re likely to be in the field come Selection Sunday.
