The 4th of July is behind us and training camps are on the horizon. Dynasty owners find themselves with very little to do now and so they can tend over react to the minimal news that comes out. We are just on the heals of two trades in this relatively quiet time. Jonnu Smith to the Steelers and Darren Waller to the Dolphins. I’ve listened and read as many ideas as possible and have formulated my ideas based on those crowd sourcing ideals but the biggest takeaway is that over reaction and over spending has become prevalent. I’ve seen as high as 65% of season long faab budget spent on Waller as well as another owner having $0 left in FAAB for the entire season but they have Waller. I’m not sure if Waller had a season like Bowers last year would that bid payoff with no flexibility with injuries. The likelihood of Waller being Bowers would also be low. The likelihood of that team having no injuries or not need to use FAAB (min $1 bid) for the full season and win are so low that I can’t even explain it. This means that league I play vs 10 players not 11 and I didn’t do a thing. This is an example of a team losing in July. If you have 70 teams like I do you can even get over it but if you have 5 or 10 you will seriously not only lose but also guarantee a loss of money in July.
Some owners tend to try to acquire players like Jonnu by trade, but I caution a dynasty owner to not make a move because if you have Jonnu why not wait and see the role and see if he can be a part of what wins you a championship. If you don’t own him he now became a volatile asset as we can’t know how he will fit into the steelers offense. I’m not sure what this means for my Washington shares but even as the TE3 I’m not convinced he’s a zero but what I know is my acquisition cost is virtually free so he either will be viable or not and if not then I break even if he’s viable I use him or move him. I view Freiermuth the same, as I’m not convinced he’s at least Dawson Knox in Buffalo so I don’t want to sell him currently as his value has dropped in the market. This is the time to only make grandfather trades not try to accomplish goals.
This brings me to the focal point of what I’m currently doing with my dynasty teams as we speak. I’m going through each team and not only looking at my roster but also the 14 week schedule and taking an honest look at what I expect my record to be in that league. I’m personally doing the bold step of naming my team name the projected record so I can do my normal look in during the season and staying focus on how I’m performing vs what I thought I could do. I do like to look at teams at very specific times to keep myself from being reactionary to one or two games but look at my franchises with a long term look. The challenge to each of you is to look at your 14 game regular season schedule and take an honest look at your record for each of your dynasty leagues. Is this a playoff record if you perform to expectations? If it is then the goal is to manage the team to the playoffs by winning the games you are supposed to win. If you project your record to be 4-10 then its about looking at 2026 and beyond. Each faab add and trade is building you a better 2026 team.
The discipline of not being a go all in or a big rebuild is critical, these types of statements tend to lead to overreacting and then making mistakes. Each trade or FAAB move made needs to be with purpose. Making a record projection at a time with no emotion or player bias helps keep you consistent throughout the season. Most championships are lost with emotional biased decisions not following a well thought out blueprint. As the season moves forward revisiting this record projection becomes very valuable as you learn about yourself as a fantasy player. Its like relationships you have to first learn about yourself and make sure you are very secure with your personal process. The goal ultimately is to shift the odds to winning championships and money at a higher than average rate. Stay tuned for more details on the journey of building dynasty franchises.
