The madness is almost here! On Saturday, we will flip the calendar over to March, and on Sunday, we will be two weeks away from having a bracket! But there is still plenty of basketball left to be played in the regular season and surely plenty of chaos to unfold. Let’s see if we can pick off a few upsets this week!
Wednesday February 26
NC State over Syracuse
If this game were played on a neutral floor, NC State would probably be a 1.5-point favorite, but I expect them to be an underdog on the road. The Wolfpack looked great on Saturday in a win over tournament-hopeful Wake Forest, largely thanks to moving Freshman Paul McNeil into the starting lineup. I think the Wolfpack may continue to roll with McNeil in the starting 5. I also hate narratives like this, but no team in the ACC will be more motivated than NC State over the next 2 weeks, as they have to improve their spot in the standings just to qualify to defend their ACC Tournament crown.
Vanderbilt over Texas A&M
My only cause for concern in picking this upset is the fact that Vanderbilt has been much better in the friendly confines of Memorial Gymnasium as opposed to road games this season. But, stylistically, it makes a lot of sense that they can beat Texas A&M. The Aggies play a physical brand of on-ball defense that can stifle individual shot-makers, but Vanderbilt is a balanced team that doesn’t depend on one scorer. Vanderbilt is also a team that forces opponents to take a ton of 3-point shots, and Texas A&M is one of the worst shooting teams in the entire country.
Cal over SMU
This is a story of two teams that are in the exact inverse scenario of each other. SMU is playing for a spot in the NCAA Tournament, Cal is playing for a spot in the ACC Tournament. SMU is likely to be without their starting point guard in Boopie Miller, and Cal just got theirs back healthy in Andrej Stojakovic. SMU has lost two of their last three. Cal is in the middle of a 4-game slide but is 3-1 against the spread in that stretch. I think that Cal gets a boost with Stojakovic, and SMU gets a knock without Miller, and that makes this an upset ripe for the picking.
Saturday March 1
Kentucky over Auburn
Yes, I’m doing it. I’m picking against Auburn. Hear me out: Kentucky has the exact type of profile of a team that could upset the Tigers. They shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and they make them at a high clip – 37.9% on the season. They’ve also shot the ball much better on their home floor than on the road. If we just get a hot shooting night from the Wildcats, the recipe for an upset is there.
UCF over TCU
It is starting to look like a lost season for the Knights, but that has actually led to a little bit of a youth movement in their rotation as they have moved Mikey Williams into the starting lineup and are featuring Keyshawn Hall offensively. This change in mindset resulted in a win over Utah, which is a team that ranks six spots ahead of TCU on Ken Pom. UCF also won the first meeting between these two teams by 27 points.
