While I am writing this, I feel like the most shocking sports news right now is Jon Rahm leaving the PGA Tour for LIV, but we are still in the thick of the NFL season and must stay focused. Nothing should shock us in the world of sports they say.
We are in Week 14 of the NFL season, and these games are really starting to count and need to be taken seriously. There are just two teams on bye this week: the Arizona Cardinals and the Washington Commanders. That should not have a huge impact this week as we still have many game environments to exploit. Some may be very obvious, and some may have a blurry path to succeed, but I have a few players that I will have locked and loaded this weekend. These will not be available in your Seasonal leagues, but if you are undecided between two players and one of them is someone I mention, go with that guy. Most importantly, I would strongly suggest you consider these guys if you want to win money in DFS this weekend.
Christian McCaffrey, San Fransisco 49ers
As I say weekly, CMC is a special kind of player who deserves consideration against any team. He is my absolute favorite spend-up this week over any other player at any position. Just a couple of weeks ago, when these two teams met in Seattle, CMC gashed the Seahawsk for 139 yards and two touchdowns. This meeting will take place at CMC’s house, and I expect a little more out of him, especially if the 49ers get up early and go to the ground more.
The Seattle run defense ranks 19th in DVOA and 18th in yards allowed per carry. They gave up 17.30 fantasy points to Tony Pollard just last week, which was Pollard’s fourth-best performance of the season. I expect another two-touchdown game from CMC this week.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
Hockenson has had double-digit fantasy scores in all but two games this season. He is more of a wide receiver in terms of scoring points, although also in terms of DraftKings salary at at $6,000. Hock has been targeted 108 times for 80 receptions, 786 yards, and five touchdowns. Minnesota has one of the highest pass rates in the league, airing it out over 37 times per game on average. Minnesota has also been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the red zone, so I expect Hockenson to be a main target for at least one of those attempts.
Justin Jefferson has been activated to the active roster from the IR, and all signs are that he will play in this week’s game against the Raiders. I still think Hockenson will be the alpha receiver until Joshua Dobbs and Jefferson get more live-game exposure to one another. Dobbs is simply more comfortable with Hock as of now. With the Raiders’ defense allowing the seventh-highest catch rate to opposing receivers, T.J.’s upside is looking good.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
As a transplant from Wisconsin now living in Illinois, I don’t love the Bears. With that said, I love Fields this week in a matchup that he should be able to exploit with his arm and legs as he did the last time these teams met in Week 11. The even better part for DFS is he is $100 cheaper than he was in that game. He is also $400 cheaper than he was in the last game he played in Week 12 against the Vikings and well-rested coming off a bye this week. Discounts of any kind are always in your favor in DFS.
The Lions’ pass defense ranks 13th in DVOA and 26th in yards allowed per pass. They also lost their top interior pass rusher, Alim McNeill, to IR last week. McNeill was ranked second on the team in pressures at 33 and had the highest sack total at five. This should buy Fields a little more time and open things up for passes to D.J. Moore, who should also have a nice game. Fields has a QBR of 98.7 when targeting D.J. Moore, the highest of any QB-WR duo in the league. Fields knows that he better put on his best play because otherwise he will be out of Chicago just like the last guy, so look for a big performance from him this week.
