With just three weeks remaining, the playoff hunt has gotten a bit clearer after a couple of teams were officially eliminated last weekend. The Chiefs and their fans have now entered unfamiliar territory. For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, they will be spending the holidays watching bowl games to scout college offensive linemen rather than watching NFL games to see who they will be playing in the playoffs. To add injury to insult, Mahomes tore his ACL with just 20 seconds left in last week’s contest, so he will spend the off-season rehabbing for a return that I predict will not be nearly as deep into the season as most other players who have suffered similar injuries this late in the season. Keep an eye out for the early Vegas odds on Mahomes for the comeback player of the year award in 2026. Joining the Chiefs in the land of the officially eliminated are the Dolphins, Vikings, and Bengals. Meanwhile, the Broncos and Rams both managed to hold onto their spots at the top of each conference. While the Broncos need just one win and a little help to lock in the first-round bye in the AFC, the race for the top spot and the bye in the NFC is anybody’s to grab among the Rams, Seahawks, Bears, and 49ers. The Thursday night game between the Rams and Seattle will go a long way in either clarifying or muddying those waters. Let’s dive into these matchups and see if we can make heads or tails of week 16.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)
The last time these two teams played, the Rams eked out a 2-point home win, which still stands as the difference between these two squads in the standings. I expect another close game, but this time it will be Seattle that gets the win. Matt Stafford is playing at an elite level, but the potential loss of Davante Adams, along with home-field advantage and a better kicker, will be just enough to swing the advantage Seattle’s way. This likely isn’t the last time these two teams play each other this year. I’m taking the home team getting points all day here.
Seahawks 23 – Rams 21
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders (+6.5)
The Commanders are playing out the string with Marcus Mariota at QB. That was enough to beat the Giants last week, but this team isn’t the Giants. I don’t foresee the Eagles missing multiple field goals, dropping touchdowns, or doing whatever else it is the Giants do each week to manage to lose games. Philly is going to handle their business here and win this one by more than a touchdown. Lock that in.
Eagles 30 – Commanders 17
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+1.5)
Poor Micah Parsons. The dude tears his ACL and is gone for the season, and he managed to do it in a week when he was just the other guy in the NFL who hurt his knee. While his name may not carry the same weight as Patrick Mahomes’s, he is every bit as important to the Packers defense as the Chiefs’ signal-caller is to their offense. Meanwhile, the Bears just don’t get much respect from Vegas despite winning every week. Well, every week except for the game two weeks ago, when they lost to this same Packers team. This game is going to go the other way this time, and Chicago will even their season series at a game apiece. It feels very similar to the Rams/Hawks game. Give me the home team getting points all day.
Bears 23 – Packers 20
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Our first home team that’s actually favored to win… and it’s the Saints? Yep, that’s how the Jets’ season has been going, and it isn’t showing any signs of getting better. Meanwhile, the Saints are, dare I say, hot. They’ve won two straight games and 3 of their last 5. They’ve singlehandedly made the NFC simultaneously interesting and pathetic over the past two weeks by beating both the Bucs and Panthers, who now sit tied at the “top” of the division at 7-7 (we’ll get to them later). Tyler Shough has been fun to watch and is capable of getting the ball to Chris Olave and Juwann Johnson. That’s more than we can say for anyone on the Jets’ offense, so I’m picking the Saints to further screw themselves out of any shot at drafting Fernando Mendoza with a win over Gang Green. This is a no-fly game for me with the sports books.
Saints 19 – Jets 16
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns (+10)
Is there a team more fun to watch than the Bills? Specifically, Josh Allen? The Patriots were well on their way to beating Buffalo in Foxboro last week to reclaim the mantle of King of the East, but Allen and his teammates had other plans. The Bills now sit as the 6 seed in the AFC and are just a game behind New England for the AFC East title. They aren’t going to mess around with Cleveland this week. The Cleveland defense has been run on for the last two weeks in cold-weather games, and that’s exactly what’s going to happen this weekend. Shadeur Sanders isn’t the answer, and I don’t see this team managing to keep up once they fall behind by two scores.
Bills 31 – Browns 13
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
What do we think Patrick Mahomes is worth in the points spread for this game? If he were playing, even with his team eliminated, the Chiefs would be favored by more than a touchdown. Unfortunately, he’s not playing, and the team has been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time in 8 seasons. This won’t just be the first time Kansas City hasn’t made the playoffs in 8 years with Patrick Mahomes leading the offense; it will also be the first time they haven’t made it to the conference championship game. It’s just insane how amazing this run has been. Nobody outside of Chiefs kingdom will be shedding any tears for Andy Reid and his boys, certainly not any of the Titans faithful in the crowd in Nashville this Sunday. Gardner Minshew isn’t nearly as good as Patrick Mahomes, but he’s certainly every bit as good as Cam Ward is right now. The fact that he is under center may actually help the Chiefs in this particular game from a betting standpoint, as a Mahomes-led team may have struggled to cover a larger number. I’ll take Minshew to have a solid game this week and for the Chiefs to take this game down as they battle to finish the season on a positive note with a couple of wins.
Chiefs 27 – Titans 19
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
The Cowboys lost at home last week to the Vikings in a must-win game. That’s it. That’s all I need to know. There’s no way this team should have lost that game in that situation, yet the Cowboys just had to Cowboy things up. They allowed J.J. McCarthy to set a new career high in passing yards while leading the team to the most points they’ve scored with him under center. Justin Herbert is better than J.J. McCarthy, and the Chargers need this game to stay in the AFC playoff picture, as they still have an outside shot at catching Denver for the top spot in the West. As with all Cowboy games, I expect a high-scoring affair with the Bolts coming away with the win, even though the game is being played at Jerry World.
Chargers 38 – Cowboys 31
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (+3)
The dream season continues for Big Blue, and they have come up with a multitude of ways to lose games every week. It’s actually impressive at this point to see how they can not only blow leads but also motivate teams that have seemingly lost their will to play football into becoming winners, if only for one week. After this game, the poor Vikings fans may actually start to think they have their quarterback of the future in J.J. McCarthy. The Giants’ defense is getting shredded on the ground, so don’t be shocked if Jordan Mason steps up and has the type of game his fantasy owners were hoping for when they drafted him this year. I expect a big game from both Aaron Jones and Mason, as this game has sneaky shootout potential. It will end up being a close game, but the Giants will live up to their “Big Blew” nickname when all is said and done.
Vikings 31 – Giants 28
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Carolina Panthers (+3)
The showdown of the week? What a roller coaster it has been this year for both franchises. It seems neither team actually wants to win this division, so don’t be shocked if they set a new NFL record by tying each other twice in the next three weeks. That’s right, they play twice over their final three games to determine who will represent the NFC South in the playoffs. The Bucs have a slight edge in this “playoff race” because their other game is against the Dolphins, while Carolina will host the Seahawks in Week 16. I expect these two teams to split these two games, and since it makes sense to pick the home team in each matchup, I’m going with the road Bucs in this game. The return of Mike Evans was the shot in the arm Tampa and Baker Mayfield needed last week, even though it didn’t result in a win over Atlanta. After losing 5 of their last 6 games, it’s now or never for the Bucs, who can clinch this division with two straight wins and a likely Panther loss against Seattle.
Bucs 31 – Panthers 27
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins (+1.5)
This line is a little tough for me to figure out, since both teams were “officially” eliminated last week and are now playing out the string. Joe Burrow will remain under center for now, but he may not get Tee Higgins back, as Higgins sat out last week’s game with his second concussion in just three weeks. Quinn Ewers gets his first career start for the Dolphins after Coach McDaniel has finally given up on the Tua Experience in Miami. The rookie isn’t going to be asked to do much, but Tua wasn’t able to do much anyway. He will be able to do some damage against this Bengal defense by getting the ball to Waller and WaddleThat damage will pale in comparison to what De’Von Achane will be able to do as he stretches his legs in the sunshine after an impressive performance in the cold on Monday. It will be a higher-scoring game. Give me the home team getting a point and a half again.
Dolphins 31 – Bengals 30
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (-3)
AFC Championship game preview? These two teams perfectly encapsulate this year’s NFL. From week to week, we have seen them win games, but for the first 10 weeks of the season, we never really believed they were for real. Yet they kept winning, sometimes in ugly fashion, and now they sit among the top three teams in the conference. The Jags looked great last week, but that was against the Jets, while Denver won their 11th straight game in impressive fashion over the Packers. This is an important game for both teams, but the Broncos seem more battle-tested right now. It would be an impressive win for Jacksonville if they could get it, but I’m leaning toward the home team here. The number seems right, so this is a no-fly game for me with the books.
Broncos 24 – Jaguars 21
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Talk about a game that’s for the birds. Yeah, don’t worry, I punched myself in the face for you. These two teams are both long removed from any postseason aspirations, and both have been under the leadership of their veteran backup quarterbacks for weeks now. Jacoby Brissett has looked pretty solid, but that hasn’t translated into wins for Arizona. He may have helped your fantasy team (especially if you drafted Trey McBride), but the Cardinals have lost 7 of his 8 starts. Meanwhile, the Falcons just managed their second win in four games with Kirk Cousins, following an impressive comeback win over the Bucs in Tampa last Thursday. Two in a row seems a tad much to ask from Kirko, and I think the Cards are due to grab a win over these last few games. In another close matchup, I’ll take the home team yet again, this time getting a fat 2.5 points.
Cardinals 27 – Falcons 24
Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans (-14)
The Texans might be working on something big this season. They are sort of flying under the radar as teams like New England, Denver, and their division-leading Jaguars have gotten most of the headlines lately. To advance deep into the playoffs, you need at least one elite unit on either side of the ball, and this Texan defense qualifies. Houston has now won 6 straight games, and they showed us last week that they aren’t going to let down against an inferior opponent. The Raiders limp into town as an ever more inferior challenge than what Arizona posed last week, so I am expecting a similar result. The number looks like a lot, but I don’t think Houston has to even score 20 points to cover it. If you’re wondering, they will score more than 20 points against this Raider team that just got rolled by the Eagles.
Texans 27 – Raiders 9
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions (-7)
Both teams are 8-6, but only one of them is in the playoffs as of right now. Yet it’s the division-leading Steelers who are a full touchdown underdog to a Lions team that currently sits in 3rd place in the NFC North and is on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture. Pittsburgh is likely going to win that division, but they aren’t a particularly good team right now. Aaron Rodgers is good enough to lead their offense in frigid temperatures over a team like Miami, but on the road indoors, it will be a different story. Dan Campbell is still a meathead, and he’s not going to lead this team anywhere when all is said and done, but he will get them whipped up to play hard and beat up Rodgers this weekend. Before you get defensive about Campbell, go back and watch last week’s game against the Rams. When your head coach doesn’t know which plays are challengeable and which aren’t, and he loses your team a timeout in a must-win game against a tough team on the road, he’s not going to be able to handle a long playoff run. That’s how this Lions team will be remembered when all is said and done. They’re fun to watch and can bully weaker teams, but they aren’t ever going to win it all with Campbell as both head coach and play caller. They will win this game, though.
Lions 34 – Steelers 20
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Believe it or not, I’m very happy for the Patriots that they lost last week’s game to Buffalo in front of their home crowd at Gillette Stadium. This is exactly what a team needs before the playoffs begin: a nice, loud wake-up call. After winning 10 straight games and then jumping out to a 3-touchdown lead over the Bills, I was getting nervous that they would run the table through the end of the season without being truly tested. Mike Vrabel can now remind them of last week’s game as they prepare for each game, preparing for the playoffs rather than having to remind them that they were actually one of the Raiders two wins this season. The Ravens beat the Bengals last week, but I don’t know if we can draw any conclusions from these AFC North games. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry didn’t have to do very much as the Bengals just didn’t show up. The Pats are very much going to show up this weekend, and I’m not quite sure how the books see Baltimore as 3-point favorites. If we’ve learned anything from this football season, it’s that when things don’t seem to make much sense, then it probably makes perfect sense. The Patriots are just a better team than the Ravens right now at almost every position. I expect them to bounce back and win this game, but the line has me a bit spooked to actually put any action on it. I’m putting this game on my no-fly list, but I’m picking the Pats to win in an “upset”.
Patriots 27 – Ravens 24
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts (+6)
The Philip Rivers “comeback experience” was fun, wasn’t it? The Colts did a great job in Seattle to keep the game close, but in the end, they weren’t able to move the ball consistently with Old Man Rivers under center. They did score the only touchdown of the contest, but Seattle piled up enough points thanks to Jason Meyers’ leg to come away with the victory. Maybe the rest of the league’s coaches were watching and learned that those pesky 3-point shots add up and that you can win games by kicking field goals. While last week was interesting, it isn’t going to work well enough to beat talented teams. The 49ers are a talented team that has won 4 straight games and will make it 5 this Monday night in Indy. Take the 49ers in a low-scoring game.
49ers 20 – Colts 12
Check out more of our articles: DrRoto.com Blog Articles
Here is a look at some other great Articles: The Big Lead
