This draft is a crap shoot. To some degree, that can be said about every draft. Let’s face it, the best player in the history of the game was drafted with the 199th pick. Of course, I’m talking about the New England Patriots drafting Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 draft.
There are busts in every draft, but missing on a random lineman is far different than missing at QB…see Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Akili Smith, and Johnny Manziel. Cam Ward is the consensus first QB to come off the board. And at this point, it seems like a fait accompli that he’ll be going to the Tennessee Titans with the first overall pick.
I’m not interested in Ward, though; I care more about where the rest of the quarterbacks will be going and which one will be the best of the lot. I am extremely proud of the fact that I nailed the last two quarterback drafts. Two years ago, I correctly predicted that CJ Stroud would be the best quarterback to come out of that draft. Last year, I correctly predicted that Jayden Daniels would be the cream of the crop.
Let me be the first to say that Ward will not be a successful NFL quarterback. I hate using the word “Bust,” but he will not be worthy of the top pick in the draft. The popular view is that Shadeur Sanders will still be the next quarterback taken, but everyone has him falling. I’ve seen him go as low as No. 21 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I’ve also seen Ole Miss QB, Jaxson Dart, go anywhere from the top of the second round, all the way into the top 10, leapfrogging Sanders. Dart is too inconsistent in the pocket and relies on his legs too often, and too quickly. He is often compared to Josh Allen for his scrambling ability, but he won’t even amount to a poor man’s Allen in the end.
The next three QBs set to go off the board are Texas’s Quinn Ewers, Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard, and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. They are projected to be second-day players, taken in the second or third round. Drafts all have an ebb and flow and can build on momentum. I can see a scenario where all of these QBs go in the second round.
Beyond them, a handful of QBs are set to go outside the top 100, in the fourth round or beyond. Names like Will Howard, Dillan Gabrial, and Kyle McCord will be called out by teams needing to take a flyer and throw a Hail Mary.
But for this exercise, let’s focus on Sanders, Dart, Ewers, Leonard, and Milroe. I still believe that Sanders will go to the Raiders with the sixth pick. Brady worked with Sanders, and he knows the kid very well. They just signed Geno Smith to a deal with a two-year guarantee of $66.5 M. He’ll be 37 years old by then, and Sanders will be ripe to take the helm at that point.
As I said, drafts have a momentum all their own. Often, teams panic and take their guy a round too early to ensure snagging him. There is a chance for two other QBs going in the first round. Two teams desperately need one. The Steelers need one immediately, while the Rams will surely need one sooner rather than later. Matthew Stafford is 37 years old and can’t be overly motivated now that they have relieved themselves of his main target, Cooper Kupp. The Steelers pick No. 21, and the Rams have the 26th pick. Both Dart and Milroe could go in the first round for them. Dart is the logical choice to go to the Steelers, with the Rams taking Milroe. In my estimation, he is clearly better than both Ewers and Leonard. But the question is, is he better than Dart? Leonard or Ewers could be taken by the Browns with the first pick in the second round, with the other lingering a bit longer.
But whoever lands Milroe will have the best QB in this draft. It may be a huge stretch, but I would seriously consider him with their 21st pick. The urgency may not be as great if they had a second-round pick, but they don’t. After the 21st pick, they don’t pick again until no.83. They can’t afford to wait that long.
Within the last week, comparisons to Lamar Jackson have been whispered about. The 6’2 205lb QB has a bazooka of an arm, throwing the best deep ball of anyone in the draft. And his speed is truly being compared to Jackson’s. Although I see him comping closer to Jalen Hurts. Either way, whether he most resembles Jackson or Hurts on a football field, whoever gets him will have a gem in their hands.
The 22-year-old QB played four seasons at Alabama, and it can be argued that if he came out last year, his stock would have been higher. His completion percentage was in the 65% range in each of his last two seasons, but his TDs were down and his INTs were up. I attribute that to simply trying to do too much on the field. He did manage to score 20 TDs on the ground. Did I mention he has lightning speed? He ran a 4.37-second 40-yard dash. Only superheroes run that fast.
The Browns have been speculated to take Travis Hunter with the second pick in the draft and a quarterback at no.33. They seem to like Milroe if he’s there, but they may have to settle on someone else…unless they intend to trade up back into the first round.
Milroe may not make it all the way into the first round on draft night, but every year, players drop and players rise. Milroe will be one of the risers and prove to be the best QB in this draft.
