One of the most jarring things an NFL team can do is switch QBs midseason. When a QB goes down with an injury, the backup is thrust into duty out of necessity, but when a QB switch is made due to ineffectiveness, it can have a plethora of ripple effects in the locker room.
Invariably, some will stay loyal to the previous starter, while others look forward to the switch. If a WR isn’t getting the ball as much as he’d like, he may really look forward to a fresh start with the new QB.
It has happened this week. Head coach Raheem Morris has made the bold decision to bench veteran Kirk Cousins and replace him with rookie Michael Penix Jr. When the Falcons drafted Penix in the first round this past year, it was scoffed at after giving Cousins a 4yr/$180M deal…and Cousins wasn’t too happy with the decision either.
He must have seen the writing on the wall and projected to this week when the rug was pulled from him. The decision wasn’t without warrant; Cousins has been extremely ineffective the last handful of weeks and appears to have an injury that is affecting his arm strength. In the last few weeks, he has thrown nine interceptions with only one touchdown pass. Realistically, he has played his last game for the Falcons.
His contract included a base pay of $12.5M this season with a $50M signing bonus and $100M guaranteed money. Some team will surely take a flyer on him in a trade ahead of next season. But there’s no way the Falcons can bring him back now.
It is a bold move that can make or break a HCs career, and Morris is really going all in on Penix Jr. By all accounts, he has looked solid in practices. At 7-7 the Falcons are currently outside of the playoffs, with the no.9 seed in the NFC and 36% chance of reaching the playoffs. Their season is definitely not over.
They are giving him a soft landing spot at home against the Giants. It is a game that Cousins realistically would win, too, and if Penix doesn’t excel it will create total chaos. After the Giants they have the Commanders in wk.17, and then finish up with the Panthers. Based on records, they probably will win two out of their last three games, and end the season 9-8.
They won their two games against the Buccaneers and will win the division if they can somehow claw back to tie them in the standings. The Bucs have the Cowboys, Panthers, and Saints left. The Cowboys have been playing better of late and could pull out a victory. And there is a very real possibility the Bucs and Falcons are each 8-7 by week’s end.
Again, at this stage of the season, with the schedule laid out the way it is over the last three weeks, the safe move was to keep Cousins under center and play it out. As a first-year HC Morris’ job is most likely safe, regardless, which is another reason this move is so bold. The safe move would be to play it out. If Cousins could somehow right his ship and get the team into the playoffs and possibly even win a playoff game, everything would be status quo heading into 2025, with Penix still waiting in the wings. If Cousins stayed at the helm and the team continued to falter, missing the playoffs, they could make this move in the offseason, elevating Penix and moving on from Cousins. But if this move backfires, and Penix looks awful in these last three games, the Falcons may have boxed themselves into a corner heading into 2025.
In that scenario, they will have a disgruntled veteran QB who they still owe millions of dollars, and a second year QB who may not be “the guy”. This is why GMs and HCs get paid millions of dollars, to make these kinds of decisions. Cousins will most likely land on his feet with another team willing to give him a shot…maybe a team like the Browns or Giants. And hopefully Penix does well in these last three games regardless of whether they get into the playoffs. Fortune often favors the bold, and in this case, Raheem Morris is about as bold as a HC can be.
