This season, college football is embarking on yet another postseason structure. For the first time ever, 12 teams will make the playoffs. The league champions from the Super 5 conferences will get in, followed by the next seven ranked teams. This is in an attempt to avoid having a no.5 and/or no.6 seeded team staying at home, who may have a legitimate argument of being in the top 4.
This new structure will go deeper than ever to hopefully eliminate this argument and debate. But I think we all know that a worthy team ranked no.13 is just on the cusp, and outside the top 12, they will have a gripe in a few months…it’s inevitable.
The top four teams will get a bye, with no.5 vs. no.12, no.6 vs. no.11, no.7 vs. no.10, and no. 8 vs. no. 9. The winners play the top four seeds to get to the semifinals, and ultimately the Championship Game. This is as close as the NCAA will most likely ever get to a real and undisputed champion. A team that was ranked fifth or sixth could make an argument that they should have been in the four-team playoff structure and worthy of a championship…(Last season’s Georgis Bulldogs, for instance). But going all the way down to no.12 should eliminate most debate.
This is still so much different than the NFL, where a true and rightful champion hoists the Lombardi Trophy at the end of every season. This still doesn’t necessarily prove the best team or the team with the best record…but it does produce a champion, and certainly, the team who is playing the best when it matters most, in the playoffs, and finally in the Superbowl.
That said, even though the playoffs aren’t based on the power rankings but actual standings, having a weekly NFL Power Ranking is a fun exercise to see where your team may be at that moment in time during the season and whether they appear to be on the rise or heading down the list.
This is the first Power Ranking of the season, and the initial game will be played in Kansas City, with the Chiefs hosting the Ravens. This matchup between two of the top five ranked teams in the league is a fantastic way to kick off the season dynamically.
This initial Power Ranking will rely heavily, but not exclusively, on Las Vegas’ preseason odds to win the Superbowl.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Wrestling legend and, in my opinion, the GOAT, Ric Flair, famously said, “To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.” Until proven otherwise, the Chiefs are “The Man”. They are back-to-back Superbowl Champions and could very well be the first team to three-pete.
San Fransisco 49ers:
Las Vegas has the Niners listed at +600, which is the second favorite behind the Chiefs. But other than the fact that I can’t legitimately see any other team here, San Fransisco is the default No. 2 team. They have to contend with the curse of Superbowl losers in the following season. Although they are a lock to make the playoffs, I think the Los Angeles Rams could end up winning the NFC West.
Detroit Lions:
Don’t look now, but the Lions are a legitimate top-five team. Vegas has them fourth, at 12/1, but I have them here at no.3, and an argument can be made for Baltimore or a couple of other teams in this spot. They will go as far as HC Dan Campbell can take them…I fear his coaching decisions will cost them in a pivotal moment.
Houston Texans:
The Texans are one of five teams between +1100 and +1500. I am extremely high on them and believe CJ Stroud will lead them to the Super Bowl this season.
Baltimore Ravens:
I am not as high on Baltimore as others are, and when the smoke settles, I think Cincinnati will overtake them in power rankings and end up being division winners. I believe in a healthy Joe Burrow more than Lamar Jackson in a big spot.
Cincinnati Bengals:
Speaking of the Bengals…the team’s success lies solely at Burrow’s feet. He’s had two season-ending injuries in his short four-year career, but he’s already been to one Superbowl, something Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have never done.
Buffalo Bills:
And speaking of Allen…no good team seems to rely on its quarterback as much as Buffalo does with Allen. Sure, if Mahomes were to get hurt, it would be devastating for the Chiefs, but their system is such that another quarterback could be plugged in and keep the team serviceable. Allen freelances so much that it feels like if he went down, the team would be completely lost.
Green Bay Packers:
In the AFC, the Texans are the darling team this season that announced themselves last year as the team on the rise. In the NFC, that team is the Packers. They, like the Texans, are led by a young and dynamic QB. Houston has Stroud, while the Green Bay has Jordan Love. I actually have them facing the Texans in this year’s Superbowl, which is a 70/1 bet. They are one of four teams listed in that next tier at 18/1, sitting at no.11. I believe they must be a top 10 team and have them ahead of the Jets, Cowboys, and Eagles.
Philadelphia Eagles:
And speaking of the Eagles…Vegas is actually very high on them this season to have a rebound. They have them with the fifth-best odds to win the Superbowl at +1300, but I am a bit skeptical. The second half of last season was alarming. They are in a division that still has the Dallas Cowboys, who always seem to win 12 games in the regular season. And they will have two games against an improved Washington team, who has the next Jalen Hurts in rookie Jayden Daniels.
New York Jets:
There is a ton of hope this season in the Big Apple. This is about the same place the Jets were last season at this time. But then, about five minutes into the season, Aaron Rodgers went down along with all the city’s hopes and dreams. It’s interesting: The Bills have better odds of winning the Superbowl, but the Jets are favored to win the AFC East.
Miami Dolphins:
Miami has the talent to crack the top 10, but they always fade at the end of the year. They will have a hard time winning the division, which would make them a wildcard team heading into the playoffs. Las Vegas has them at +2200, which aren’t terrible odds. The offense is still stacked, and if Tua Tagovailoa can stay upright, they have a chance to finally break through.
Dallas Cowboys:
The team just spent a fortune on Cee Dee Lamb, and I’m sure Jerry Jone’s leash is quite short regarding the team’s success. He still has to make a decision about QB Dak Prescott, and if the team doesn’t get off to a good start, HC Mike McCarthy’s job will definitely be in jeopardy.
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams have Cooper Kupp back healthy, and with Matthew Stafford still getting him the ball, this tandem broke records a couple of seasons ago on their way to a Superbowl. The offense has a chance to be scary good this year with second-year WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams. They are my longshot team to win it all; they are sitting at +3000.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
The Jaguars are all that separates the Texans from winning the division. They are the only team with talent at their skill positions and a still-young Trevor Lawrence at quarterback who can compete with Houston. Vegas has them even lower than I do, with them sitting at 45/1.
Atlanta Falcons:
The Falcons are another “It” team this season. They were lacking at quarterback and signed Kirk Cousins in the offseason. They have one of the best young RBs in the game, Bijan Robinson, as well as a solid WR core led by Drake London. They have a talented and young TE, Kyle Pitts. They are in the very mediocre NFC South, which they should win.
Indianapolis Colts:
The Colts are the last team to crack the top half of this list. They will have a hard time making the playoffs with two teams (Houston and Jacksonville) ahead of them in the division.QB Anthony Richardson is back healthy, and it will be interesting to see how the team performs with him back at the helm. With Jonathan Taylor at RB and WR Michael Pittman, for Richardson to get the ball to, the team will be in the mix for most of the season.
Cleveland Browns:
The Browns were forced to start multiple quarterbacks last season due to injuries. HC Kevin Stefanski did a remarkable job, leading the team to a playoff berth. Deshaun Watson is seemingly back healthy, which will give some stability at quarterback, but unfortunately for the Browns, they are in an extremely difficult AFC North division. This feels like a season of regression for the Browns.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
Sports are all about expectations. The Browns are coming into this season with fairly high expectations, which may lead to a letdown, while the Steelers don’t have many expectations leading into the season. They have Russell Wilson, who is well past his prime, and most pundits have them finishing in last place. However, since HC Mike Tomlin seems to always have his team finishing above .500, I can see another 9-8 season, which will exceed expectations.
Los Angeles Chargers:
With Jim Harbaugh at the helm as first-year HC, there is a ton of attention in Los Angeles this season. To begin with, the start of Justin Herbert’s career hasn’t gone as planned. He has put up video game numbers and is great for fantasy owners, but the team underperforms year after year. Harbaugh is bringing a more balanced approach to the offense, and it will be interesting to see how the loss of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen will affect the team.
Chicago Bears:
Hope is one of the best things for a sports team to have…even more than talent or expectations. Hope allows for a team to not do well but still keep the interest of their fans. If a team is just bad, they can lose the fans, and the airwaves will be filled with negativity. But, for a team with hope, they can get a pass. Such is the case this year for the Bears. They have the No. 1 pick in QB Caleb Williams to go along with a promising offense around him. Don’t get me wrong, a 2-15 season will be unacceptable, but if they can get to seven or eight wins with signs of promise, the city will throw them a parade.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
The biggest benefit the Bucs have is that they play in the same division as the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons, none of whom are serious contenders. Every team in the division tends to be 9-8 or 8-9, except for the Panthers, who win four games. A 9-8 record may be all that’s needed to win this division, and that’s a record the Bucs have a shot at reaching.
Seattle Seahawks:
If it weren’t for Bill Belichick leaving the Patriots, the loss of Pete Carroll on Seattle’s sidelines would be much bigger news heading into the offseason. The team has an average quarterback in Geno Smith, who may be replaced by Sam Howell by the end of the season. They are in a difficult NFC West, where the 49ers and Rams are at the top. And it’s no surprise they find themselves outside the top 20.
New Orleans Saints:
If I were to tell you that the 49ers and Cowboys had the best point differential in the NFC last season, nobody would be surprised. If I were to tell you the next team in third place was the Saints, I think everyone would be surprised. They only finished the season at 9-8, and with a +75 pt differential, they should have made the playoffs with a much better record.
Minnesota Vikings:
The loss of Kirk Cousins will hurt this team. Although he is excruciating to watch at times, he is a serviceable and talented quarterback. Atlanta liked him enough to make him the centerpiece of their offense, while Minnesota chose to rebuild at quarterback by taking JJ McCarthy. It will be interesting to see which team ends the season with a better record and if either team can snag a playoff spot.
Washington Commanders:
The odds of all of these remaining teams are over triple digits, at least 100/1. None of them are threats to win the Superbowl or even make the playoffs. Of the bunch, Washington has the best chance, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels leading the way.
Arizona Cardinals:
Even with Kyler Murray back healthy, the Cardinals are the fourth team in the NFC West behind the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks.
Tennessee Titans:
The Titans opted to replace Ryan Tannehill with Will Levis and Derrick Henry for Tony Pollard. They also fired HC Mike Vrabel.
Carolina Panthers:
It will be interesting to see how much progress second-year QB Bryce Young will have. Vegas doesn’t believe he will make much improvement, setting the team’s Superbowl odds at 250/1 with an o/u of 5.5.
Denver Broncos:
The Broncos are in full rebuild mode, dumping Russell Wilson for rookie QB Bo Nix. And like Carolina, their o/u is only 5.5.
New England Patriots:
It’s hard to believe that we are five years removed from Tom Brady in New England. It’s also amazing how much damage can be done to a franchise in only five years. Vegas actually has them as the longest odds on the board to win the Superbowl, but living in Foxboro, I just can’t have them at No. 32.
New York Giants:
The Giants lost QB Daniel Jones last season, but he is back healthy. It still remains to be seen if he can lead the team to the promised land. They have lost Saquon Barkley and don’t have a ton around Jones. HC Brian Daboll is known as a brilliant offensive mind, and he’ll have to use all his talent this year to stay out of the NFC East’s basement. Another lousy season for the Giants will mean the end of Daboll in New York.
Las Vegas Raiders:
I’m not sure why Tom Brady wants a piece of this lousy franchise. I doubt even his brilliance can change the fates in Las Vegas. They are in that last group of eight teams that are at least 100/1. I think they are the worst of the lot heading into opening week.
