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The Five-tastic Picks | UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales

Apr 13, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; A couple kisses in front of a UFC logo prior to UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Fight week is back in Vegas and I’m writing this on Thursday prior to our Fight Club of Pain show, tonight. If you’re reading this and have not watched that, you should head over to the Dr. Roto network on YouTube, X, or Facebook, to hear our latest bets and so much more. This week we have a lot of one-sided fights on Saturday which mean finding good bets may be hard like last week. When I say hard I mean that last week we only hit on odds that were around +500 to +900. The previous week we hit on +2300 and +2600 odds which is what I like to suggest, if the fight theory is there. For now, let’s get to this week’s picks so we can Bring the Pain to the competition. Have a great day everyone and may the fights be with you.

Matheus Camilo

Matheus Camilo faces off against Gabe Green, who isn’t  a great fighter by any stretch. That means the moneyline is a great bet and using Camilo for DFS is almost a must. If you’re feeling froggy, hit the under 2.5 rounds or distance for a chance at extra money and even a great parlay.

Mezquizael Costa

Mezquizael Costa is one of those fighters we have become accustomed to seeing since he fights so much. That can be worrisome but Julian Erosa isn’t that scary. There is a path of victory for Erosa but let’s play it safe for DFS and take Costa. If you want to get froggy you can play submission with points for Erosa for +200. As for Costa, I’ll be taking his second and third round knockout prop which is sitting at a +450 currently.

Nursultan Ruziboev

Nursultan Ruziboev is another fighter we have been winning money with on the Fight Club of Pain, so why stop now. Ruziboev is fighting Dustin Stolzfus, who is another average fighter, at best. With Ruziboev having a three to one odds right now, you’ll have to search for ways to make money off this fight. Don’t worry because if you play him in DFS and grab his knockout prop you should be able to make a little extra money off this fight. For full analysis, you’ll need to watch the Fight Club of Pain in how we broke this fight down.

Rodolfo Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato is one of the heavy favorites on this card making him a must start for DFS. Bellato is facing Paul Craig who is another up and down fighter who has had flashes but on Saturday the only flashes he’ll see are the lights, when he’s looking up at them. Bellato is going to knock out Craig so you’re going to want to grab his first round knockout for +185 and hedge yourself with the first and second round knockout for -115.

Michael Morales

Since we started doing content for the UFC, a lot of fighters in the main event have been near the middle for DFS. Not this week as Michael Morales is the most expensive fighter on the card. That means veteran Gilbert Burns shouldn’t have a chance, especially with the sportsbooks giving out negative odds for under 3.5 rounds. Dan and I have out some wild props for this fight but in the end this fight also ends in a knockout. Right now, Morales is sitting at +110 for a first, second, and third round knockout. If you’re going to play the single round knockout prop, I like the second round knockout for +550 odds right now giving you another way to cash, if you want to take the chance.