While the Minnesota Twins continue to be a strong team, they didn’t do anything to improve themselves this off-season. Seeing Pablo Lopez pitch the way he did the second half is important for the Twins as is having a healthy Joe Ryan. Unfortunately, this isn’t an original thought for 2025, but Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa also need to stay healthy.
Breakout – Trevor Larnach
Last year, Trevor Larnach failed to hit a home run in his 23 at bats against left-handers. That lines up to his .203 career average against southpaws with just three home runs in 172 at bats. Against right-handers, though, Larnach shows off his power. With a 10.1% barrel rate and 45.1% hard-hit rate, good things happen when Larnach makes contact. Batting cleanup should help Larnach improve on his 52 RBI and 15 home runs from a year ago.
Sleeper – Carlos Correa
This all comes down to staying on the field for Carlos Correa. Last year, Correa played in just 86 games, but he did hit 14 home runs and 54 RBI. Correa also hit .310 and .207 ISO, and we know what he’s capable of when healthy.
Bust – Willi Castro
Expectations were set after Willi Castro stole 33 bases in 2023. The problem, though, is that Castro followed that up with just 14 last year. In 158 games, he hit just 12 home runs, so his value and production are limited. The fact that Castro can play multiple positions helps, but he’s really just a step above being a top-notch utility player.
Hitting Prospect to Know – Emmanuel Rodriguez
The fact that Emmanuel Rodriguez is now on the 40-man roster helps his case for a promotion in 2025. After dealing with a thumb injury last year, Rodriguez had surgery, and the top prospect should be ready to go for the upcoming season. In 37 games at Double-A last year, Rodriguez reminded everyone of his upside as he hit .298 with eight home runs and nine stolen bases.
Pitching Prospect to Know – Andrew Morris
After finishing the season in Triple-A last year, Andrew Morris is next in line for a promotion to Minnesota should there be an opening in their rotation. Over 133 innings, it’s difficult to argue with a 2.37 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, even if Morris doesn’t come across as a true top prospect.
C: Ryan Jeffers
Prediction: .235 AVG, 25 HR, 70 RBI, 50 R, 2 SB
Considering Ryan Jeffers played a career-high 122 games last year, it’s not surprising that he tailed off in the second half of the season. Jeffers did finish with 21 home runs and 64 RBI, so he was a solid power threat. This is despite dips in both his barrel (8.3%) and hard-hit (33.5%) rates. With a refreshed Jeffers more accustomed to the increased playing time, we should see improvements in 2025.
1B: Ty France
Prediction: .250 AVG, 14 HR, 60 RBI, 55 R, 1 SB
At this point in his career, Ty France is what he is. And that is a solid veteran placeholder. With a .132 ISO last season, France doesn’t bring much power to the table, but he is capable of being a solid run producer based on where he hits in the order. The problem for France is that he’ll likely be in the bottom third when he’s in the lineup.
2B: Brooks Lee
Prediction: .250 AVG, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 60 R, 4 SB
The former top pick has found success in the minor leagues, but he’s been slow to adjust to major league pitching. It’s still early in Brooks Lee’s career, but we also should note that his power potential is limited after he hit 16 home runs in 125 minor league games in 2023. Lee’s ISO last year was just .099 with a 4.1% barrel rate, but he did limit the strikeouts to 14.6%.
3B: Royce Lewis
Prediction: .260 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 80 R, 3 SB
For Royce Lewis, the biggest thing is that he needs to stay healthy. He’s yet to prove it to this point, but when Lewis is on the field, the production is there. Last year, in 82 games, he hit 16 home runs to go along with 47 RBI. Lewis only hit .233, but his .246 xBA offers some upside, and with an 11.2% barrel rate, the quality of his contact is high. While he doesn’t run, a healthy Lewis is a good source of power.
SS: Carlos Correa
Prediction: .285 AVG, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 75 R, 0 SB
If only Carlos Correa could stay healthy. After playing in between 135 and 148 games the last three years, he dipped to 86 last year. Correa was still productive, hitting .310 with 14 home runs and 54 RBI while making strong contact. When he’s in the lineup, Correa continues to produce.
LF: Trevor Larnach
Prediction: .245 AVG, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 55 R, 2 SB
When the bat meets the ball, Trevor Larnach can do some damage. The problem, though, is that Larnach had just 22 at bats against left-handed pitching last year. When facing right-handers, Larnach hit .261 and likely slots in as the cleanup hitter in those situations. Over 400 plate appearances last year, he hit 15 home runs with 52 RBI, so this comes down to his workload and his ability to handle southpaws.
CF: Byron Buxton
Prediction: .265 AVG, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 75 R, 5 SB
The Twins clearly like to have situations that require qualifiers. Byron Buxton has legitimate talent in all areas except staying on the field. Last year, though, his 102 games were his most since 2017. He doesn’t run anymore, which is perfectly fine if it keeps him on the field after he hit .279 with 18 home runs and 56 RBI last year. With a .245 ISO and 13.2% barrel rate, there’s no disputing his batted-ball skills.
RF: Matt Wallner
Prediction: .240 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 65 R, 2 SB
After a 36.4% strikeout rate last year, Matt Wallner is an interesting option as a leadoff hitter. It likely will just be against right-handers as he hit .184 in his 44 plate appearances against southpaws last year. With the platoon advantage, Wallner did hit .275, but his power caught our attention. Between his .264 ISO, 17.5% barrel rate, and 53.2% hard-hit rate, there’s a real upside going on here.
DH: Willi Castro
Prediction: .250 AVG, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 70 R, 20 SB
Versatility is Willi Castro’s greatest asset. The utility player logged real playing time at shortstop, second base, third base, and in the outfield last year. Castro has limited power, so it was concerning to see his stolen base total dip from 33 to 14 last year. Based on where he bats, though, Castro could also be a strong source of runs.
SP1: Pablo Lopez
Prediction: 3.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 200 K, 14 W
It was a tale of two halves for Pablo Lopez last year after his ERA dropped from 5.11 to 2.77. Overall, there’s room for improvement to his 4.08 ERA based on Lopez’s 3.67 xERA. He reached a career-high with a 95.1 mile-per-hour average fastball velocity last year while striking out more than a batter per inning and walking less than two.
SP2: Joe Ryan
Prediction: 3.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 180 K, 12 W
The right-hander is healthy as Joe Ryan looks to bring his 3.60 more in line with his 2.87 xERA from a year ago. With a 0.99 WHIP, Ryan provided real ratio relief while benefitting from keeping runners off the basepaths. Walking just 1.53 batters per inning while striking out more than a batter per inning also helps drive Ryan’s success.
SP3: Bailey Ober
Prediction: 3.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 185 K, 10 W
While Bailey Ober isn’t overpowering, with an average fastball velocity of 91.7 miles per hour last year, he still struck out 9.62 batters per nine innings. Ober keeps hitters off balance as he works mostly through the air with a low quality of contact against (33.9% hard-hit rate). Coming off a 3.98 ERA last year, there’s some room for improvement based on Ober’s 3.22 xERA. Being able to limit the walks, 2.17 per nine innings, also helps to drive Ober’s success.
SP4: Simeon Woods-Richardson
Prediction: 4.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 125 K, 7 W
Last season, Simeon Woods-Richardson emerged as a dependable member of Minnesota’s rotation, making 28 starts. He had moderate success with a 4.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, and it’s unclear whether Woods-Richardson has any more upside to offer.
SP5: Chris Paddack
Prediction: 4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 105 K, 6 W
Health will be just one of the factors determining whether Chris Paddack remains in Minnesota’s rotation all season. Based on his 4.19 FIP from last year, his 4.99 ERA should be lower, but his 1.39 WHIP means that he’s consistently pitching with runners on base. The good news is that with just 2.14 walks per nine innings, the opposition is hitting their way on base. We won’t see an overabundance of strikeouts, but Paddack isn’t a complete liability, either.
Closer: Jhoan Duran
Prediction: 2.65 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 75 K, 25 SV
On paper, Jhoan Duran looks like one of the best closers in baseball. However, the Twins haven’t necessarily treated him that way, and he’s saved 27 and 23 games in the last two years. Duran’s ERA was on the higher side at 3.64 last year, but that should come down based on his 2.76 xERA. Duran averages 100.4 miles per hour with his fastball and generated a 60.9% ground ball rate last year while allowing a barrel rate of just 3.5%.
SU1: Griffin Jax
Prediction: 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 85 K, 6 SV
After saving 10 games last year, Griffin Jax should be in the mix for some saves once again. Regardless of that, he’s one of the better set-up men there is. Last year, hitters couldn’t touch Jax as he finished with a 2.03 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He struck out 12.04 batters per nine innings last year while walking only 1.90. It should be another strong season for Jax.
SU2: Cole Sands
Prediction: 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 70 K, 2 SV
Last year, Cole Sands had some success saving four games while posting a 3.28 ERA. Sands was a true contributor in Minnesota’s bullpen over 71.1 innings while striking out 10.72 batters per nine innings. He also kept runners off the bases with just 1.51 walks per nine innings, which is a recipe for success.
