In case you hadn’t heard, the Mets acquired Juan Soto this winter. Soto is one of the best hitters in the game and will instantly boost New York’s lineup. Bringing back Pete Alonso also helps as they team up with Francisco Lindor and an ascending Mark Vientos. Pitching will be critical here as Clay Holmes transitions to the rotation and Kodai Senga works his way back from injury. Being without Sean Manaea for a few starts and Frankie Montas for a few months could test the Mets. Ultimately, they should be strong enough to overcome it while contending for a division title.
Breakout – Brett Baty
For the past three seasons, Brett Baty has struggled whenever given a chance at the major league level. In 169 games, Baty has just a .215 average with 15 home runs and 55 RBI. His performance in the minor leagues, along with his prospect pedigree, has told a different story, though. Last year, Mark Vientos surged past Baty, but to the latter’s credit, he expanded his defensive versatility. That means he can start the season at second base while building on a strong spring.
Sleeper – Clay Holmes
Previously a strong closer, Clay Holmes found himself out of the role by September last year. This winter he signed with the Mets and decided to transition back to being a starting pitcher. Holmes has the velocity and pitch mix to be successful here, and New York will put him in the best situation possible to do so.
Bust – Jeff McNeil
Prior to injuring his oblique this spring, there was talk about Jeff McNeil improving his approach at the plate. This is a story we’ve heard on multiple occasions and often subpar results. McNeil hasn’t been able to get back to the 23 home runs he hit in 2019 although he did hit .326 in 2022. Last year, McNeil was just .238 with 12 home runs and 44 RBI. With Baty starting the year at second base and Luisangel Acuna in the mix, it’s possible McNeil won’t regain regular playing time.
Hitting Prospect to Know – Jett Williams
Based on the Mets’ depth, they’ve done a good job of increasing Jett Williams’ versatility in the field. While short in stature, the former first-round pick is a player to watch after he bounces back from injury woes last year that held him to just 33 games. In 2023, though, Williams hit .263 with 13 home runs, 81 runs scored, and 45 stolen bases in 121 games. With just six games at Triple-A to this point, Williams still needs a little more seasoning before we see in New York.
Pitching Prospect to Know – Brandon Sproat
The Mets were aggressive last season with Brandon Sproat as he progressed from High-A to Triple-A. In the first two levels, Sproat dominated with ERAs of 1.07 and 2.45. When he got to Triple-A, Sproat was overmatched and finished with a 7.53 ERA over seven starts in 28.2 innings. The lack of success shouldn’t be a poor reflection on Sproat as he now got those adjustments out of the way. He’s capable of striking out more than a batter per inning, and now he just needs some more refinement as he adjusts to a higher level of baseball. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the big leagues towards the latter part of 2025.
C: Francisco Alvarez
Prediction: .240 AVG, 20 HR, 65 RBI, 45 R, 0 SB
Let’s hope that Francisco Alvarez got this year’s injury absence out of the way early. A broken hamate bone means Alvarez’s season will get off to a delayed start as he looks to bounce back from some struggles in the power department last year. Alvarez’s ISO decreased from .228 to .166, although his batting average did improve to .237. In 100 games, Alvarez hit 11 home runs with 47 RBI after finishing with 25 home runs and 63 RBI over 123 games in 2023. Youth and power upside are still on Alvarez’s side as he continues to find his footing at the major league level.
1B: Pete Alonso
Prediction: .250 AVG, 37 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 3 SB
Free agency didn’t quite work out as planned for Pete Alonso, but now he gets another crack at it this year in all likelihood. For as much as we want to call it a down year for Alonso, he still finished with 34 home runs, 88 RBI, and 91 runs scored. Perhaps more concerning was seeing his ISO decrease from .287 to .219, but there’s still some real power here. Alonso still had a 13% barrel and 45.9% hard-hit rate, and we should feel good about him heading into 2025.
2B: Brett Baty
Prediction: .245 AVG, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 50 R, 1 SB
It has been a rough few years for Brett Baty and his prospect status, but youth and talent is still on his side. An injury to Jeff McNeill has opened up second base to Baty, and to his credit, he’s done a great job of expanding his defensive versatility. He continues to succeed at the minor league level, but Baty has yet to put it together in the big leagues. After hitting .252 with 16 home runs and 45 RBI in 62 games at Triple-A last year, Baty looks to parlay that into MLB success. So far this spring, he’s doing a good job of that, though, hitting .308 over his first 43 plate appearances.
3B: Mark Vientos
Prediction: .255 AVG, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 80 R, 0 SB
Talk about seeing an opportunity and taking advantage of it. Mark Vientos certainly did that last year, hitting .266 in 111 games with 27 home runs and 71 RBI. He did so with a .249 ISO and 14.1% barrel rate, and both support continued success in 2025.
SS: Francisco Lindor
Prediction: .265 AVG, 30 HR, 90 RBI, 105 R, 30 SB
Maybe this year, Francisco Lindor will get the credit he deserves and make an All-Star team. Each year, the production is there by the time we get to September, but Lindor has gotten off to some slow starts. In 2024, he posted career highs with a 13.4% barrel rate and a 47.4% hard-hit rate to go along with a .227 ISO. Lindor slugged .500, and his .528 xSLG offers up even a little more upside. After finishing one stolen base shy of a 30/30 season (33 home runs), look for Lindor to hit that mark this year while benefitting from batting in front of Juan Soto.
LF: Brandon Nimmo
Prediction: .250 AVG, 18 HR, 75 RBI, 85 R, 7 SB
We seemingly got past the foot issues for Brandon Nimmo but now we have a knee issue to worry about. I wouldn’t expect the 15 bases Nimmo stole to continue as his focus will be on remaining healthy and batting in the middle of the lineup also comes into play. The new norm for Nimmo is an 11.2 degree average launch angle and 47.4% hard hit rate as he continues to be a solid contributor.
CF: Jose Siri
Prediction: .215 AVG, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 55 R, 15 SB
If only Jose Siri did a better job of making contact. His other skills attempt to make up for a 37.9% strikeout rate, but it’s too futile when it comes with a .187 batting average as it did last year. In 130 games, Siri finished with 18 home runs and 14 stolen bases with his .179 ISO and 14.6% barrel rate catching our attention.
RF: Juan Soto
Prediction: .285 AVG, 40 HR, 110 RBI, 115 R, 7 SB
At this point, what hasn’t been said about Juan Soto this offseason? He seamlessly fits in the Mets’ lineup. There are few players with a better plate approach, as evidenced by Soto’s 18.1% walk rate compared to his 16.7% strikeout rate last year. He’s coming off a career-high .281 ISO, which led to 41 home runs. It should be no surprise that his barrel rate spiked to an insane 19.1%, along with a career-high of 56.8%. Soto truly is one of the best players in the league.
DH: Jesse Winker
Prediction: .260 AVG, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 60 R, 12 SB
After a strong start to his career in Cincinnati, the pace slowed down for Jesse Winker, and injuries certainly played a factor. At a minimum, he should receive all the playing time against right-handed hitters. In 508 plate appearances last year, Winker hit .253 with 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases, as he brings a solid mix of power and speed.
SP1: Clay Holmes
Prediction: 3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 150 K, 11 W
A year after closing games for the Yankees, Clay Holmes is now starting Opening Day for the Mets. In 14 innings this spring, Holmes has a 1.29 ERA as he’s done a good job of acclimating to the rotation. He’ll have to adjust to facing opposing hitters three times a game and pitching deeper in each outing, but he’s generally good for a strikeout per inning. Ultimately, his 65% ground ball rate and 5.6% barrel rate should work in his favor.
SP2: Kodai Senga
Prediction: 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 170 K, 12 W
The big thing for Kodai Senga is to stay healthy and find his comfort level in his return to the rotation. In 2023, he made his presence felt with a 2.98 ERA, although it came with a 3.87 xERA. We should see around a 50% ground ball rate from the right-hander with a high strikeout totals, but walks (4.17 per nine innings) could be a concern. Working in Senga’s favor, is his 6.8% barrel rate against as hitters weren’t able to truly square him up.
SP3: David Peterson
Prediction: 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 140 K, 11 W
Not only is David Peterson’s hip in good working order, but he found a groove as part of New York’s rotation. At this point, though, Peterson’s ceiling is likely linked to his 3.42 walks per nine innings after posting a 2.90 ERA in 2024 (4.59 xERA and 3.67 FIP). His 50.1% ground ball rate helps, but there’s no upside in the strikeout department.
SP4: Tylor Megill
Prediction: 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 120 K, 7 W
Once again, Tylor Megill finds himself in New York’s rotation to begin the season. Megill settled in last year and finished with a 4.04 ERA (3.55 FIP) while bringing his walk rate down from 4.13 to 3.69. While it’s still higher than we’d like it to be, it’s a step in the right direction as the right-hander did strike out over 10 batters per nine innings.
SP5: Griffin Canning
Prediction: 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 110 K, 5 W
It’s been an up and down career for Griffin Canning as he looks to find his footing. Last year, he did pitch 171.2 innings while making 31 starts, but the results were rough. Canning had a 5.19 ERA although it did come with a 4.74 xERA. Of greater concern, is seeing Canning’s strikeouts per nine innings decrease from 9.85 to 6.82 while his walks rose from 2.55 to 3.46. A change of scenery to New York with their pitching lab could serve Canning well.
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Prediction: 2.85 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 95 K, 35 SV
It was an up-and-down year for Edwin Diaz in 2024 as he worked his way back into form. He only finished with 20 saves but there’s some clear upside in his 3.52 ERA as it came with a 2.49 xERA. Diaz still struck out 14 batters per nine innings and had a barrel rate of just 6.4% with a 30.3% hard-hit rate. We’re still dealing with one of the elite closers in the game here.
SU1: AJ Minter
Prediction: 3.20 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 75 K, 3 SV
AJ Minter appears to be fully recovered from his hip injury which means he can get back to being a strong set up man. The southpaw is equally as good against right-handed hitters while striking out a batter per inning overall and generating a 45.9% ground ball rate in 2024. With a 6.9% barrel rate, hitters generally didn’t square the ball up against him either.
SU2: Reed Garrett
Prediction: 3.65 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 80 K, 2 SV
Last season, Reed Garrett was a revelation for the Mets’ bullpen. Garrett was generally pretty good last year with a 3.77 ERA, but he was able to work through a .349 BABIP, as evidenced by his 3.19 xERA. An elite strikeout rate of 13.03 per nine innings certainly helped here but a 5.3% barrel rate played a large factor as well.
