Two weeks ago, I pondered whether we’d sooner know who the Superbowl Champ would be or where Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman would go going. By Superbowl Sunday we did find out that Alonso would be heading back to Queens, re-signed with the Mets. That’s a formidable top of the lineup; with Francisco Lindor leading off, Juan Soto batting second, and Alonso batting third.
The signing of Alonso effectively left Bregman as the final big chip unsigned. In a somewhat surprising move, the Red Sox won out. There are still 83 free agents out there, as well as a couple of trade chips probably moving on from their current teams…With Nolan Arenado leading the way.
But back to Bregman; this a solid deal for each side. Bregman was looking for a six-year deal. But no team met his per-season salary demand. The Red Sox swooped in with the three-year offer and elevated AAV. Bregman is now the seventh player in history to have an AAV of $40M or more. And, he is the fourth hitter, with Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge also cracking the $40M plateau. Bregman is a good player…but he’s not a $40M talent. The contract includes two opt-outs, that could become a 3yr/$120M deal. The problem with opt-outs is, that if he doesn’t perform or gets injured, he won’t opt-out. But if he has a fantastic season, he’ll most likely demand more money from the Sox or simply seek greener pastures elsewhere.
The Sox did what they had to do to snag their man. The team is still too left-handed heavy. They desperately needed a right-handed bat, and Bregman was the last one available on the board. I would have preferred Alonso, but Bregman is a decent alternative.
But being the Red Sox…even after getting their man, the celebration lasted about 48 hrs. The incumbent third baseman, Rafael Devers, has already come out, saying he is the team’s third baseman. He signed a huge contract at the start of last season…a 10-year/$313M contract, which has 9-year/$286 M left on it.
Bregman is a gold-glove third baseman, far superior to Devers. The logical move is to replace Bregman at the hot corner, with Devers sliding to DH. Devers is a young man to be a full-time DH, entering his age 28 season. I can see the tea leaves…this situation is going to boil over if Devers isn’t at third base on opening day. Realistically, Bregman will move off of third, and slide over to the other side of the diamond, playing second base. That would give the Sox a solid infield of Christian Casas at first base, Bregman at second, Trevor Story at shortstop, and Devers staying at third.
They do have Kristian Campbell, a 22-year-old moving up their prospect list, currently ranked second behind Roman Anthony. He is waiting in the wings, projected to be their long-term option at second base. If Campbell has a solid camp, it will be tough to keep him at AAA. At some point, coming soon, the Sox brass are going to have some major decisions on their hands.
It’s not often that a team’s star who just signed a huge contract, gets traded. But I can see a scenario that the Sox do move on from Devers. An interesting option would be to move Devers to the Blue Jays for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Devers is making $27M this season, while Guerrero Jr is making $28.5M this season, and will be a free agent at the end of the year.
Realistically, this is Guerrero’s last year in Toronto, whether via trade or free agency. The Blue Jays must realize the price tag for Guerrero is going to be north of $500M…taking on Devers is a huge financial saving for an above-average lefty bat. Guerrero is better than Devers, but the difference isn’t huge.
Devers has averaged 122 games per year, compared to Guerrero’s 136 games. Guerrero has the edge in runs scored, 79 to 77 runs. He has a two-HR edge, 27 to 25 per year, and an 84 RBI to 80 RBI edge. The difference in average is also close, with Vladdy having the edge, from .288 to .279. Lastly, he has an OPS advantage of .863 to .856. So, across the board, Guerrero is better, but this could prove to be a huge win for the Blue Jays. And for the Red Sox, it would give them the entire season to try to put together a long-term deal with Guerrero Jr.
They say the only things that are guaranteed are death and taxes. There is a third; constant chaos at Fenway Park.
