We’re down to four. Only four teams are left in the NCAA Tournament bracket, and this is arguably the best group of four teams that we have ever seen at this stage of the tournament. This is the 2nd time in history that all four 1-seeds have advanced to the Final Four, and I would make the argument that this year’s crop is much better than that of 2008. KenPom.com has been ranking and rating college basketball teams since the 1997 season, and this year’s Final Four are all in the top 10 in their database all-time. These four teams would all be good enough to easily win a national championship in another year, but here they are all together competing for this year’s trophy. With all four teams being so great, I can make a convincing argument that any of the four can win it all, so let’s go ahead and do that! Here’s how each Final Four team can cut down the nets next Monday night!
Auburn
1. Johni Broome goes nuclear: This Final Four boasts what should be (in my opinion) the top 3 vote-getters for National Player of the year in Johni Broome, Walter Clayton Jr., and Cooper Flagg. Broome has the ability to take over a game in a variety of ways – primarily as a post-scorer, but also as a floor spacer, and elite top-level rebounder. He carried his squad in the Elite Eight matchup against Michigan State, putting up 25 points and 14 rebounds. Another two performances like that from Broome could be the difference in the Tigers cutting down the nets.
2. Learn from their mistakes: Auburn has a unique distinction of having lost to two of the potential three opponents remaining thanks to regular season losses to Duke and Florida (for what it’s worth, they also beat Houston back in November). It is very difficult to beat a quality opponent twice in college basketball because the losing team has the benefit of seeing what didn’t work in game one and adjusting their game plan. Auburn could be afforded this opportunity in back to back games, should Auburn beat Florida and Duke beat Houston.
3. The bench mob takes over: Of all the Final Four teams, I think Auburn has two of the best bench players remaining. Chaney Johnson is a versatile two-way forward who contributes in a variety of ways. But the headliner is Tahaad Pettiford, a true freshman certified bucket-getter who can be a spark plug for a struggling offense. Pettiford is the type of guard who could go on a two-game tear and win the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player Award. No one else has this caliber of player coming off the bench.
Florida
1. A balanced attack: Florida is the one team left in the bracket that has the most players who can take over a basketball game. They’ve got three great guards in Clayton Jr., Martin, and Richard. They’ve got depth and athleticism in the frontcourt with Condon, Haugh, and Chinyelu. The scariest part of this Florida team is that you can’t just focus in on shutting one guy down. You have to stop the entire army of depth that they have.
2. The “Kill Shot”: Advanced basketball analytics sites refer to a 10-0 run as a kill shot. Florida is one of the best teams in the country at generating kill shots. They exemplified this in both of their second-weekend games, with a kill shot against Texas Tech in addition to a 12-2 run to re-take the lead with around a minute to play. No lead is safe with this Florida team because of their ability to go on a run, and they have the ability to take a game that was in doubt and end it with one as well.
3. Walter Clayton Jr. makes his best Steph Curry impression: If you had not seen him play much this season until the Elite Eight, you were probably dumb-founded at some of the shot selections of Walter Clayton Jr., But these are shots that he has taken and made all season long, not unlike how Steph Curry of the Golden State Warriors takes and makes shots like these. If Clayton Jr. can keep this up for two more games, Florida is very likely to be the team cutting down the nets Monday night.
Duke
1. Size Matters: Duke ranks as the nation’s tallest team in terms of average height. Their entire starting lineup is 6’6” or taller, and their entire rotation of players is 6’5” or taller. This size across the board gives them immense switch-ability on ball screens, and can often bother shooters who are used to getting their shots up and over smaller defenders. Think this doesn’t matter? Well, Duke ranks 1st in the nation in Effective FG% defensively, showing that their size clearly bothers opponents. Even the best teams in the nation are not used to dealing with this factor when they play the Blue Devils.
2. The Youth Movement: With 5 freshmen in the rotation, Duke is the least-experienced team in the Final Four. That makes them dangerous – because it also means that they are the team that has also developed the most since the start of the season. The development of freshman Khaman Maluach has been particularly intriguing, as he turned from simply a shot-blocker to now a better than average screener and lob threat offensively, and elite switchable defender and paint protector on the other end. These freshmen are better than they were in November, and that could play out this week.
3. Cooper Flagg rests his case on being the #1 draft pick: In my personal opinion, Cooper Flagg is the best “one and done” prospect to come through college basketball in the last two decades. He’s a great shooter and scorer at all three levels, and is a top-tier defender as well. His size and athleticism as a two-way player is simply something that you don’t see every day, and he also demonstrates great decision-making with the basketball and rarely forces bad shots or passes. He’s already projected to be the number one draft pick in this June’s NBA draft, but he has the chance to rest that case with a great performance this weekend.
Houston
1. Defense Wins Championships: If you believe in the old adage, then Houston should be your team this weekend. They rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency on KenPom, and they exemplified this by holding Tennessee to 15 first-half points in their Elite Eight game. This was a record for the NCAA Tournament – a number one or two seed had never been held to 15 points in any half of any NCAA Tournament game ever. This is a veteran team that plays physical defense like a bunch of grown men playing pick-up at the park, and this defense will have to show up if they want to cut down the nets.
2. Board man gets paid: Despite not having a rotation player taller than 6’8”, Houston is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, ranking 11th in offensive rebounding rate. This speaks to the level of effort and toughness that they play every possession with, and they have won the rebounding battle by an average of 11.5 rebounds per game in this NCAA Tournament. You don’t have to shoot the ball at a high percentage to still score the same amount when you are generating extra shots via offensive rebounding.
3. The guards get hot: Houston ranks 3rd in the nation in 3-point percentage offensively, yet the oddity is that they don’t take a lot of them, ranking 291st in 3-point rate. But they have 3 guards who could get scorching hot in any game, as Milos Uzan, LJ Cryer, and Emanuel Sharp all shoot over 40% from 3. All it would take is for one or more of these guys to get hot to make it really tough for an opponent to keep up – two timely threes from Emanuel Sharp sealed the victory and ended Tennessee’s comeback hopes in the Elite Eight.
