The Madness rolls on! Even though there will be less overall volume of games in the tournament this weekend, the quality of the games themselves is only going up. This Saturday, there will be 8 tickets punched to the Sweet 16. We’re going to see if we can call those 8!
McNeese over Purdue
Will Wade threw the kitchen sink at Clemson, mixing in multiple different zone and man-to-man defenses to keep the Tigers confused all game. Given that Purdue has one method of offense — the Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn pick and roll — I expect McNeese to throw enough coverages at them to get them out of their comfort zone, and McNeese’s multiple Power-5 quality players will be able to score against Purdue’s 348th-ranked 2-point defense.
St Johns over Arkansas
On Thursday night, Kansas lost the round of 64 matchup as much as Arkansas won it. I don’t expect St Johns to give the Razorbacks the same courtesy, as they are much less prone to mistakes and much better defensively. Omaha hit St Johns with the ole “dare you to shoot” strategy, which worked for a half but the Red Storm did make enough shots and get enough stops to pull away in the second half.
Michigan over Texas A&M
Texas A&M is a team that is highly dependent on scoring via second-chance points because they are simply a poor shooting team. You can say what you want about Michigan’s track record this season, but they know how to take away a team’s strength and win a close game, even against superior opponents. I expect Michigan’s 7-footers to control the glass and the Wolverines to cruise to a victory.
Texas Tech over Drake
The Drake Bulldogs have been one of the better stories of the NCAA Tournament to this point, but I think the train stops here. One of Drake’s glaring weaknesses is their lack of size and depth down low, and Texas Tech should be able to make them pay with the duo JT Toppin and Darrion Williams.
Auburn over Creighton
I do think that Creighton will pose a unique challenge to Auburn, but it’s not one that the Tigers won’t be able to overcome. Creighton has one of the best interior defenders in the nation in Ryan Kalkbrenner. If they put Kalkbrenner on Johni Broome, this would be a matchup to watch. But also, Kalkbrenner’s ability as a rim protector allows Creighton to play drop coverage on pick and rolls, and Auburn’s guards will have to hit shots off the dribble to make them pay.
Wisconsin over BYU
I think this one has a simple explanation — I don’t see anyone on BYU that is going to be able to contain John Tonje and John Blackwell. And I do think that Wisconsin’s bigs will be at least a wash down low against BYU’s. The Cougars are one of the hottest teams in the country coming in, but I think Tonje and Blackwell will serve as the cooler.
Gonzaga over Houston
This is a game that I have been calling my shot on since the bracket was released. Houston has a very simple blueprint to winning basketball games: play physical defense, control rebounds, and rely on physicality and shot-making ability offensively. Gonzaga’s overall size and offensive firepower pose direct issues to this gameplan, because the Zags will be able to score on Houston and will limit second-chance points. And I don’t know if Houston’s tough shot making ability will be able to score enough against a Gonzaga team that will generate clean looks at the basket.
Tennessee vs UCLA
These two teams play very similar styles to one another, and this game could easily turn into a rock fight where the first team to 50 wins. But I think that Tennessee is better at that particular style, with Chaz Lanier as the best offensive player on the floor and better individual defenders. UCLA finally played talented backup big Aday Mara 20 minutes against Utah State, but his rim-protecting ability could be nullified by the amount of perimeter shots that Lanier can take (and make) and his post-up offensive game will be put to the test against Felix Okpara.
