They don’t call it March Madness for nothing. The annual festival of basketball tips off later today, and every year, we’re caught by surprise as favorites tumble, cinderellas emerge, and life-changing moments for players and coaches are realized. No one can predict all of the madness; it’s almost impossible. But we’re going to do our best to identify how and where the madness will occur in 2025.
1. A team seeded 12 or higher will reach the Sweet 16
This year, we have an unusually high-quality crop of 12 and 13 seeds in the bracket. More often than not, the first-round upsets in March are pulled off by teams who are on or shared the regular season in their conference. This is the case for 88% of the 12 and 13 seeds in this year’s bracket. All it would take is for one 12/13 combo to win in the same region, and we’re guaranteed to have one in the Sweet 16.
2. One of the First Four into the Sweet 16
Since the First Four became a thing in 2011, a winner from this round has advanced to the round of 32 in every NCAA tournament except for one (2019). This year, both North Carolina and Xavier advanced out of the round, and both have a case to be made for making a deep run. North Carolina simply has a more talented roster than a round of 64 opponents, while Xavier is coming off of a hot shooting performance against Texas and now faces the ultimate Jekyll-and-Hyde team in Illinois. Then, in the potential round of 32 matchups, both of the 3-seeds these teams would play (Iowa State and Kentucky) are dealing with injuries and are not at full strength. I think one of the two breaks through to the second weekend.
3. No Two seeds in the Final Four
This year has a unique identity amongst the top seeds in the tournament. We have one of the strongest crop of 1-seeds of all time. But the twos all have traits that traditionally disqualify them from making the Final Four:
No team unranked in the preseason has ever made the Final Four (Michigan State)
Being ranked outside the top 50 on one side of the ball is traditionally a red flag (St Johns ranks 64th in offensive efficiency)
In the last 15 years, only one team that ranks in the top 10 in tempo rating has made a Final Four (Alabama currently ranks 1st in tempo)
The University of Tennessee has never made a Final Four (Tennessee)
4. At least One 1-seed fails to make the Sweet 16
This is an elite crop of 1-seeds this year. They’re all very solid bets to make a Final Four individually. But there’s a reason that an all-1-seed Final Four has only happened once. And this year, I actually think the crop of 8 and 9-seeds are pretty good as well. We have 2-time defending champ UConn, a Louisville team that finished 2nd in the ACC and is playing an hour from home, and a Gonzaga team that ranks 9th overall on KenPom, among others! I just think that one of them breaks through and pulls off a major second-round upset!
