There is only one week left in college basketball’s regular season, and then it will be conference tournament season. That means that all of the teams on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament have just a few opportunities left to prove that they belong in the field. We’re going to run through a few bubble teams with varying levels of bubbliness to give you a great lay of the land two weeks before Selection Sunday.
Just win one more: Baylor
The Bears have been in a bit of a tailslide since losing Josh Ojianwuna to injury, but with two quadrant one games remaining in the regular season and the Big 12 tournament, the Bears will hear their name called on Selection Sunday as long as they win one more game.
Stock up: Georgia
After a 4-game losing streak that saw the Bulldogs fall out of the field in the eyes of many bracketologists, Mike White’s squad now owns wins over top-10 Florida and fellow bubble team Texas and now find themselves squarely in the field and will be favored to win each of their last two games.
Might not have to win your conference tournament: VCU
The Rams have been on a bit of a roll and now rank 29th on KenPom and 29th in the NET. The top 30 in the NET is normally pretty secure for an NCAA Tournament berth, so if the Rams win their last two regular-season games, they may not need to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament (which is historically a haven for underdogs and bid-stealers) to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
Start looking at hotels in Dayton: Indiana
The Hoosiers have rattled off 4 straight wins, and I do believe that they would be in the field if the tournament started today. With two games remaining, against Oregon and Ohio State, a 1-1 finish would likely keep them in place, which would likely lead to a First Four matchup in Dayton as one of the last four teams in the field.
Might want to win that Conference tournament: Drake
The Drake Bulldogs have been to the NCAA Tournament two years in a row by virtue of winning the Missouri Valley Tournament. If they fail to do so this year, they will find themselves with a sweat on Selection Sunday. The Bulldogs boast only one win against a projected NCAA Tournament team, a neutral-site win over Vanderbilt. And with a current NET ranking of 59, which is worse than much of the current bubble, Drake may want to go ahead and win “Arch Madness” if they want to keep their streak alive.
One win could change it all: Wake Forest and North Carolina
I am grouping these two ACC squads together – because both sit in a similar position. Both would almost certainly NOT be in the field of 68 teams if Selection Sunday were today. But both can change the entire complexion of their season in the last week of the season. Wake Forest visits Duke on Monday, and North Carolina hosts Duke on Saturday. If either were to claim victory over the Blue Devils, they would instantly see themselves in the field in mock brackets as the ACC’s 4th team in the tournament.
Must win out: Texas
I dread calling games “must-win games.” Because let’s be honest, every game is a “must-win” game to a varying degree. But the Texas Longhorns lost not one but two “must-win” games this week against fellow bubble squads Arkansas and Georgia. With a NET ranking of 45 and ranking 51st on KenPom, the Longhorns aren’t dead yet but would likely need to beat both Mississippi State and Oklahoma to close the regular season, as well as win a game in the SEC Tournament, in order to find themselves back in the field.
Bubble burst: SMU
Andy Enfield’s Mustangs have seemingly been on the NCAA Tournament bubble all season long, and I think we can finally put that to rest. SMU is currently 0-5 in quadrant 1 games without another opportunity on the schedule. You just don’t see teams earn at-large berths to the NCAA Tournament without any wins over the rest of the NCAA Tournament field, and that is where the Mustangs stand. The loss at Stanford over the weekend has now sealed the Mustangs’ fate with having to win the ACC Tournament to go to the Big Dance.
