We hit a few of our upsets in a big way last week, and we’re looking to continue that success this week. Not that anyone’s counting, but we are now less than 4 weeks away from Selection Sunday!
Tuesday February 18
Purdue over Michigan State
On a neutral floor, this would probably be considered a non-upset. But when homecourt advantage is factored in, Sparty will surely be favored, and I’m not sold. The only top-25 KenPom team that Michigan State has beaten is Illinois, whom they have swept this season (Purdue currently ranks 10th for context). The Spartans have also struggled against teams with interior scoring in Indiana, UCLA, and Kansas this season and will now have to deal with Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn. Give me the Boilermakers to get a bounce-back road upset here.
South Carolina over LSU
For Gamecocks fans, this is the matchup you’ve been waiting for. South Carolina has been in last place in the SEC since the start of conference play, and are yet to notch a conference win. Now, they get to take on 2nd-to-last LSU at their place. For the most part, South Carolina has been more competitive against the top teams in the league than LSU has this season. South Carolina will also boast the best player on the floor in Collin Murray-Boyles, and LSU has multiple injuries in their frontcourt. I think the matchup and timing are right for the Gamecocks to notch their first conference win.
Wednesday, February 19
Cincinnati over West Virginia
These two teams have already played once this season, with West Virginia scoring a 63-50 victory on Cincinnati’s home floor. So why would I pick the other side in the rematch? Well, in that game, West Virginia shot 50% from 3-point range, well over their season average of 32%. Cincinnati’s size should also be one of their best advantages against a small WVU frontcourt, and center Aziz Bandaogo only played 18 minutes while dealing with foul trouble. I just think that the first matchup could be chalked up to randomness, and I’m willing to take a chance on the second spin of this proverbial roulette wheel.
Saturday, February 22
Florida State over Louisville
Overall, I do like the season-long prospects of the Louisville Cardinals. They have a very effective starting 5 and are balanced on both sides of the ball. But in a one-game sample size, I think they are ripe for an upset. Louisville takes 3-point shots at the 7th-highest rate in the nation, but they only make 32.8% of them, which is below the national average and ranks 222nd in the nation. This means that all it would take is one off-shooting night for the Cardinals to get upset, and I think this game against FSU could be a good spot for it to happen. FSU is as athletic as they come and has already knocked off Wake Forest on their home floor.
Sunday, February 23
UConn over St Johns
This is an example of buying one stock that is at its lowest and selling another while it is at its highest. UConn is coming off of a very fluky overtime loss to the lowly Seton Hall Pirates, while St Johns is riding high after being nemesis Creighton on Sunday. These two teams have already played once, a 68-62 St Johns victory. St Johns is still one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation, ranking 352nd in that category. I just trust Danny Hurley to exploit this offensive weakness, and draw up intricate sets that will enable his team to get quality shots against St Johns’ 2nd-ranked defense. Plus, there is the added wild card of UConn having Liam McNeeley back for this one as well. I’m riding with the defending champs to pull off the upset.
