Last week was a little bit of a cooler, as we had a few “right team, wrong game” spots and a few spread covers that didn’t result in a victory. But we’re still out here hunting for upsets! We’ve got some big game hunting this week and some smaller, more projectable spots.
Tuesday, February 4
Marquette over St Johns
These teams are about even on a neutral floor, but with this being played in NYC, I would expect the Johnnies to be around a 3-point favorite. Road underdogs are covering at a high rate in conference play this season around the nation, suggesting that Vegas is going to over-value home-court advantage. In this particular matchup, I like how Marquette matches up. The Golden Eagles are embracing Shaka Smart’s “Havoc” defense and forcing turnovers at the 6th-highest rate in the nation. This does not bode well for a St John’s team that ranks outside the top 200 in effective FG% and may not see the typical shot volume that they normally do. St Johns is also yet to beat a team that ranks in the top 40 on KenPom, and Marquette is currently 19th after getting as high as 9th in early January.
USC over Northwestern
The only scary spot in this spot is that USC is traveling halfway across the country to Evanston, but they have already beaten Illinois and Nebraska on the road in conference play. Not only are the Trojans coming in off of the high of beating Michigan State, but Northwestern is coming in after just getting news that star guard Brooks Barnhizer is out for the season. Northwestern already has experience with playing without Barnhizer, as they lost to Dayton and needed overtime to beat Eastern Illinois earlier in the season without their star. I think that loss will have a significant impact on how Northwestern performs, and I look for that to affect the outcome of this game.
Wednesday, February 5
Syracuse over Duke
I’m calling my shot on this one. Maybe this isn’t one to bet on outright, but I think there’s a high likelihood that Syracuse covers what will likely be a massive spread. Hear me out: Duke is a team that attempts 3-pointers at the 31st-highest rate in the nation. Syracuse plays in a dome with very unique sightlines that often cause teams to shoot poorly. They are also playing more and more zone defense lately, with a much taller lineup than average. Duke’s height, which is one of their biggest advantages, will not be one against a Syracuse team that is also an elite defensive rebounding team. All it could take is a poor shooting night to catch lightning in a bottle.
Friday, February 7
San Jose State over Boise State
This is a rematch of a 2-point Boise State win from earlier in the season in San Jose. The spread on this game will likely be much higher than that. The formula is there for the Aztecs – they are a better-than-average 3-point shooting team, they take a lot of them, and Boise’s defensive style will force opponents to take a lot of 3s. This just feels like a game where San Jose State could get hot and steal one – like they did against New Mexico, who’s better than Boise, in January.
Saturday, February 8
Arkansas over Alabama
The Razorbacks really showed something by beating Kentucky in Rupp Arena on Saturday night. Just based on the eye test, this is a team that is starting to figure itself out. After the injury to Boogie Fland, they have won 2 of 3 games, both of which were against top-40 KenPom opponents. They have immaculate floor spacing with Big Z at the 5 spots, Johnell Davis is starting to come into his own, and they are playing much-improved defense. We know the deal with Alabama – they are an elite offensive team that takes a lot of 3-point shots and layups and are usually more athletic than their opponent. That won’t be the case against this Arkansas team. I think this has all the makings for Arkansas to continue their momentum and notch a huge win over Alabama.
