The round of 64 could be described as a bit of a letdown, as this NCAA Tournament, to this point, has been bereft of Cinderellas, buzzer-beaters, and overall drama. Every single 1 – 4 seed won their first-round game. Call me an optimist, but I think that the lack of upsets in round 1 will create better matchups going forward, as we have some great matchups between great teams on the docket.
Florida over UConn
The juxtaposition of these two teams playing this game has a little bit of poetry to it. First, these are the last two teams to win back-to-back NCAA Championships, with Florida trying to shut the door on a potential UConn 3-peat. This year’s Florida team feels a lot like last year’s UConn team – a team that excels in all areas with no true weaknesses and multiple pathways to win. I think it will take a team of more quality than UConn to beat this Florida team.
Duke over Baylor
I will give credit where it’s due: Scott Drew is getting everything he can out of this Baylor squad that is winning via a lot of smoke and mirrors. After the loss of Josh Ojianwuna, Baylor has gone to playing super small-ball and playing zone defense. Mississippi State had plenty of size but lacked the overall shooting and floor spacing to make Baylor pay. It’s not an issue for Duke – they rank 19th nationally in 3-point percentage in addition to being the tallest team in the nation by effective height.
Illinois over Kentucky
This is the individual game with the widest range of outcomes in the round of 32. You could tell me that either team wins this game by 30 and I would not be surprised. This game could very well come down to 3-point variance, as both teams love to shoot it from deep. Right now, the Illini are back to doing the things that had them looking like a top-10 team at the start of 2025, and I am still worried about how Lamont Butler’s bum shoulder will affect the ceiling of this Kentucky team.
Alabama over St Mary’s
This is one of the largest possible contrasts in playstyles in the sport – Alabama ranks first in the nation in tempo, whereas the Gaels rank 360th. I think Alabama has the all-around athleticism advantage and will be able to exploit it. I see the one pathway to victory for Saint Mary’s being domination in the frontcourt, but Alabama got great contributions Friday from Mo Dioubate and Cliff Omoruyi, and that no longer looks like a weakness on their team.
Maryland over Colorado State
I think this is simply a nightmare matchup for Colorado State. The Rams allowed Memphis’ Dain Dainja to go off for 22 and 12 in a losing effort, and now they have to take on Maryland’s frontcourt of Derik Quen and Julian Reese, who are both arguably better than Dainja. The Terps are also playing some of their best ball of the season, dominating both Illinois and Grand Canyon in the last 10 days. I expect them to continue to roll here, setting up a monumental matchup with Florida.
Iowa State over Ole Miss
It was no Keshon Gilbert, no problem for the Cyclones against Lipscomb in round 1 as they got major contributions from Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic. Ole Miss, on the other hand, weathered the storm of a furious North Carolina second-half rally to hang on and advance to this game. I struggle to see Ole Miss scoring north of 70 points in this game against Iowa State team that is much better defensively than UNC, and I trust the Cyclones offense to get the job done even without Gilbert in the lineup.
Michigan State over New Mexico
New Mexico relied on their frantic pace and ability to force turnovers to pull away from Marquette late in the round of 64. I don’t think they’ll be able to do so against a Spartans team that is an elite rebounding team on both sides, does not turn the ball over at a high rate, and has plenty of depth pieces that can be used in an uptempo game.
Arizona over Oregon
This is an old-school PAC-12 matchup between a current Big Ten team and a current Big 12 team. You gotta love conference realignment (not). Both of these teams cruised to easy victories in the round of 64 and will come into this one rested and confident. Oregon’s offense is designed to use Nate Bittle as a mismatch to draw extra attention and create more space for shooters, but Arizona is well equipped to match up with Bittle one-on-one and, on the other side, has guards that are more athletic than Oregon’s.
