There is one sure-fire way to get your way off of the NCAA Tournament bubble, and that’s to win your conference tournament. As it stands, some of the teams on this list have a chance to do so, which would take them off of the bubble and into the field. If that happens, you can just simply remove them from the list and move everyone else one spot down. And there is also sure to be a bid thief out there lurking, and if Memphis were to lose the AAC or UC Irvine were to lose in the Big West, then the list would move down a spot as well because I anticipate both of those teams will be in the field. The last variable is the Atlantic 10 – both Dayton and VCU will show up on this list because we don’t know yet if they will win the conference, but both would be squarely on the bubble if they don’t win.
Indiana – Last 4 in:
The Hoosiers are in such a weird juxtaposition right now. I look at their numbers and their wins and losses, and it’s a simultaneous feeling of “How could I possibly put that team in the field?” and “How could I possibly keep them out of the field?” at the same time. The Hoosiers have no true stains on their resume, as they have not lost outside of Quadrant 1. But they’re 4-13 in that quadrant. They’ve consistently shown an ability to beat teams lesser than them but not to beat teams better than them. Which places them here. They are incredibly likely to take a trip to Dayton next week. They are very vulnerable to being passed by bubble teams still in action.
Texas – Last 4 in:
As it stands right now, no bubble team has done better for themselves this week than Rodney Terry’s Texas Longhorns. They have earned Q1 wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, and only Q1 opponents await in the rest of the SEC bracket. This team passes the eye test with great wins and competitive losses against the top of the SEC, and owns 7 Quad 1 wins. With a NET and KenPom ranking in the low 40s, Texas could avoid a sweat altogether if they win one more game in the SEC Tournament, but as it stands, they are in a position where the committee could punish them for scheduling poorly in the non-conference and going .333 in the SEC.
Ohio State – Last 4 in:
A team that ranks 41st in the NET that has 6 Quad 1 wins would generally be sitting pretty for the NCAA Tournament. But the problem with Ohio State is that they have 15 total losses, 4 of which are Quad 2. They played 24 total games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 competition and only won 7. That’s a worse winning percentage in said games than Texas, who I have right above them. The Buckeyes are in a position that a win from a team below them will result in them getting passed.
San Diego State – Last 4 in:
Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs enter the weekend ranked 49th in the NET and are done in their conference tournament after losing to Boise. Their resume is propped up by neutral floor wins over Houston and Creighton. The interesting thing here with me is that the committee SAYS that they don’t value previous seasons when considering at-large berths, but we have seen numerous questionable bubble decisions reward long-standing programs like Syracuse and Michigan State, and that benefit this year could go to a San Diego State program that has won 7 NCAA Tournament games combined in the last two seasons.
North Carolina – First 5 OUT
The situation for North Carolina is very simple – beat Duke and you’re in the NCAA Tournament. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. The predictive metrics love this North Carolina team, but with a current 1-11 record in Quad 1, they haven’t shown the ability to beat NCAA Tournament teams. But that narrative flips on its head if they beat Duke in Charlotte Friday night. No team on the bubble has a more clear scenario than the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Dayton and VCU – First 5 OUT
I am including these two Atlantic 10 Rivals together. It is my belief that their scenario is also quite simple – make the Finals of the Atlantic 10 tournament against each other and both will be in. The two resumes are inverses of each other, but two more wins should put either team in position to make the NCAA Tournament field, but for different reasons.
Atlantic 10:
The Atlantic 10 schedule simply has not provided these teams with an abundance of Quad 1 opportunities over the course of the season, but Dayton has two of the best non-conference wins among all mid-majors, Marquette and UConn. Two more Quad 2 wins on their way to the A10 final would put Dayton at 3-3 in Quad 1 and 4-5 in Quad 2, which lacks the volume of other bubble teams but is a significantly better win percentage. If no other bubble team wins this weekend, don’t be surprised to see Dayton playing a home game in the First Four. VCU’s resume is the inverse of Dayton. VCU owns only one Quad 1 win (ironically, at Dayton) but the predictive metrics love this VCU team because of how they have dominated the inferior competition of the A10. Two more wins in the conference tournament would get the Rams to 26 wins, which is historically enough for an at-large bid from the Atlantic 10.
Xavier – First 5 OUT
I think the Xavier Musketeers’ tournament hopes went out the window when they couldn’t close out against Marquette. A team that plays in a Power-5 conference but only ends up 2-9 in Quadrant 1 has no business being in the NCAA Tournament. I just have a tough time seeing a team with that record against NCAA Tournament competition getting in the field, and their work is finished as they were eliminated from their conference tournament, so unlike North Carolina and Texas, they don’t have any opportunities to improve that record.
Boise State – First 5 OUT
I’m going to be honest, I’m not seeing it with this Boise team. They own only two Quad 1 wins, and have two horrible losses on the schedule to Boston College and Washington State. But a NET ranking of 43 and sitting at 44 on KenPom has their metrics in perfect bubbly position. If they beat New Mexico on Friday, they are still at the mercy of the other teams ahead of them not improving their resume. Their best chance is going to be to just win the Mountain West tournament outright.
