Here are my predictions for who will win the Mid-Major conference tournaments:
ASUN: Lipscomb
The league’s best offense and 2nd-best defense will never have to leave their home arena to punch an NCAA Tournament ticket
Sun Belt: Arkansas State
They will have to win three games as opposed to two for the 1 and 2-seeds, but they are built for it as the most well-rounded team in the conference with no glaring weaknesses
Horizon League: Milwaukee
The Panthers are balanced on offense and defense and are one of the nation’s best offensive-rebounding teams. The 3-seed in the tournament, but the conference’s highest-ranked team on KenPom.
Patriot League: Bucknell
Haven’t lost in regulation since January 20, and have the conference’s best player in Noah Williamson.
Ohio Valley: Little Rock
The 4-seed in the tournament, but they split their home-and-home matchups against both of the top 2 seeds and boast the conference’s best defense by a wide margin.
Big South: High Point
The Panthers rank 25th nationally in Offensive Efficiency and will play this tournament on their home floor. Will be favored by at least 5 points in every Big South tournament game.
Summit League: South Dakota State
Only three teams have won the Summit in the last decade — North Dakota State, Oral Roberts, and South Dakota State. I think the Jackrabbits continue the streak this year on the back of the conference’s best center, Oscar Cluff
NEC: Central Connecticut
The owners of the nation’s longest winning streak just need 3 more to go dancing.
SoCon: Chattanooga
This conference tournament has been dominated by the 1-seed, and the Mocs claim that honor this season. Have enough depth and shooting that winning 3 games in 3 days should not be too difficult
WCC: Gonzaga
Death, taxes, and Gonzaga winning the WCC Tournament. Saint Marys may have the better conference record, but the Zags are still rated higher on KenPom and are significantly better offensively.
CAA: Charleston
This conference feels like a three horse race at the top between Towson, UNC-Wilmington, and Charleston. I’ll take the Cougars as they boast the conference’s best player (Ante Brzovic) and coach with the best pedigree (Chris Mack).
Missouri Valley: Drake
I like the Bulldogs’ chances for a 3-peat. They’re very analytically driven and win the math behind the game by forcing a lot of turnovers, grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds, and playing at a slow pace to allow starters to play max minutes.
Big Sky: Portland State
The Conference’s best defensive team by far, and have already beaten the conference’s top 2 seeds (Northern Colorado and Montana) in the regular season
Southland: McNeese
One of my chalkiest picks to win. Will Wade has had a stranglehold on this league ever since he took over. Quadir Copeland and Javohn Garcia are big-time players, and they will be favored by double-digits in every conference tournament game
America East: Vermont
The Catamounts are peaking at the right time. They should be rolling into the conference tournament riding a 9-game win streak, the most pivotal being a 59-55 win over projected 1-seed Bryant
