Giancarlo Stanton-New York Yankees: Stanton is the most perplexing player in the game. Ask two people on opposite sides of The Stanton HOF debate, and you’ll get an earful for hours. He is clearly an impactful player, but he is one of the most reliable players in the league to get injured. He’s no spring chicken at age 35, and he probably won’t be more healthy as he gets older. I’ll make this caveat from the start: he’s better than Dave Kingman…but if you compare their starts, they are eerily similar. Stanton has 907 runs, and Kingman had 901. Stanton has hit 429 HRs, while Kingman had 442. Stanton has gotten 1103 RBIs, and Kingman had 1210. And Stanton has the edge with a .257 avg compared to Kingman’s .236. Obviously Stanton will accumulate more, but if we take a complete look at the body of Stanton’s career, he’s been overrated.
Xander Bogaerts-San Diego Padres:
Sometimes, someone can be overrated based on a big contract…such is the case for Bogaerts. He’s now entering his age-32 season, with eight seasons left on his 11yr/$280M deal. And, although $280M may sound like chump change compared to some of the more recent deals being made, it’s still a ton of money and years left. He’s barely holding onto a .800 OPS, He’s only had one 30 HR season, and has never stolen 20 bases. And over the last three seasons, his avg. has steadily declined, only hitting .264 last year.
Luis Robert-Chicago White Sox:
He’s played five MLB seasons, and when he plays a full year, his skills are through the roof. But like Byron Buxton, he can’t seem to stay on the field. He’s on this list solely because of his health. He’s only truly played one full season so far (145 games). All he did in that 2023 season was score 90 runs and post an .857 OPS. He hit 38 bombs and stole 20 bases. But with a five-season sample size, the 2023 season was the outlier, and the exception, not the rule.
Chris Sale-Atlanta Braves:
It may be strange to put a guy on this list who’s coming off a Cy Young season. From 2013-2018; in a six-year stretch, he posted six consecutive top-five Cy Young finishes. But after that, there was a quick and huge drop-off. From 2019 to 2023, he only sported a 17-18 record. Last year was fool’s gold…remember, as great as last season was, he couldn’t go in the playoffs. He’s only won 138 career games and is entering his age-37 season.
George Springer-Toronto Blue Jays:
Springer will be 35 yrs. old this season. He hasn’t yet reached 1000 runs or RBIs yet. He’s 39 HRs away from 300. He only has a career .262 avg. and over the last three seasons, his OPS had dipped from .814 to .732, to only .674 this past season. He is so similar to Carlos Correa, which is ironic since they started together with the Astros.
Bo Bichette-Toronto Blue Jays:
Bichette came into the league as a 21 yr. old, second generation, phenom. It took him three seasons to truly break through, but over the next three seasons, his numbers were nice…but never dominant. He’s never hit 30 HRs and has only had one 20/20 year. He’s now entered his age-27 year, but he’s coming off a disappointing injury-riddled season.
Alex Bregman-Boston Red Sox:
Similar to Bogaerts, Bregman has a very lucrative contract…realistically, too lucrative. Bregman is just not a $40M player. Similar to Bogaerts, he’s a two-time champion, but he’s only been to two all-star games. Although his peak was higher than Bogaerts, it was a quick look at the top before falling back. He was no.2 in the MVP race in 2019, when he hit 41 HRs. But he’s had a slight decline since.
Byron Buxton-Minnesota Twins:
Buxton is the poster child for the overrated player due to injuries. There is no doubt in my mind that someone at your draft will take Buxton two rounds too soon or spend a few extra dollars. After a while, you are what you’ve been. Buxton has all the talent in the world, and the expectations of him have always been through the roof. But the stats just don’t back it up. He played 102 games last year, which was his first with over games since 2017. He hasn’t had double-digit SBs since 2019. He’s never had over 60 RBIs…and only hit over 20 HRs once, when he hit 28, in only 92 games in 2022.
Dylan Cease-San Diego Padres:
Cease is a nice pitcher who eats innings…by today’s standards. He takes the ball every five days, not missing a start over the last five seasons. That is definitely a talent and an important facet of being a pitcher, but he’s not an ace…although he’s a serviceable front-end arm on most staffs’. He does strikeout over a hitter per inning but has a high career ERA, sitting at 3.75.
Carlos Correa-Minnesota Twins:
Correa is now entering his age 30 and 11th MLB season. It started amazingly, with Correa getting the Rookie of the Year award. But injuries have plagued him. In three seasons, he couldn’t even make it to 100 games, and he’s only played 140 games in two of his first 10 years in the game. He’s a borderline top-10 shortstop at this point, which isn’t good enough for a guy with so much hype starting his career with the ROTY.
