Knowing the players who are going to perform well each week is the key to winning in fantasy football. The best player is not always the best play of the week. Here are 5 must-play options at each position!
Brock Purdy, 49ers
In Week 10, Purdy had a terrific week against Tampa. Part of it was that the team had Christian McCaffrey back, part of it was that they were playing a team with a poor pass defense, and part of it is that they had the bye week to prepare and looked terrific. This week, they are back at home against a Seattle defense that has been leaky and a Seattle offense that likes to pass a lot. Put these two things together, and I think we’re looking at a game that could have a point total in the high 50s where Purdy is forced to throw and gets about 260 passing yards and at least two touchdowns.
Jared Goff, Lions
They always say that you can count on death and taxes well, I think you could add to that list to always count on Jared Goff playing at home. Jacksonville’s defense played surprisingly well last week, but I think that was as much of a failure of Sam Darnold as it was a success of their defense. Look for Goff to take some big shots downfield. Las Vegas has the Lions point total of over 30 points, which means that they expect them to score 4 touchdowns. I think Goff gets at least two in the air, along with 240 passing yards.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Tua was this close to being out for the rest of the season when he tried to make a tackle on an interception return against the Rams. If I had to guess, I would think that his teammates would not be upset if he just didn’t bother going for the tackle so long as they could have him playing each week. I don’t normally like when West Coast teams like the Raiders play in early games on the road, so this feels like a spot where Miami can take advantage. If all goes well, we might be looking at a 280-yard passing week from Tua, along with two touchdowns.
Russell Wilson, Steelers
The worst pass defense in the league this year has surprisingly been the Baltimore Ravens. Every team has taken advantage of them, and the only thing that can stop that from happening this week is if Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith decides to revert back to his running ways like he did when he was the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. If Mike Tomlin can talk some sense into Smith, we should be able to see Russell Wilson attack the Ravens defense to the tune of 260 yards and possibly as many as three touchdowns.
Jameis Winston, Browns
I’m a firm believer in the narrative fantasy play. My favorite two narratives are the hometown narrative and the revenge narrative. When we think of Jameis Winston we think of him being a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. But as you may recall he went to the Saints and was the understudy for Drew Brees. When Brees retired, many thought that it would be Winston’s job. Instead, Dennis Allen, the head coach who hated Winston, pushed the team to give a few bags of money to Derek Carr, which has been an unmitigated disaster thus far. Look for Jameis to remind the Saints of what a mistake they made as he throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
The Seahawks have allowed 5.05 yards per carry as well as the 7th most rushing yards to opposing running backs. We saw last week that the 49ers were not shy about giving McCaffrey a plentiful number of snaps. He should have another 25+ touches this week which should give him a great opportunity to have about 20-25 fantasy points. He will likely be the highest-scoring player on the slate.
Breece Hall, Jets
Aaron Rodgers has looked like a train wreck for the Jets over the past few weeks. The team insists on throwing the ball and they have not handed the ball enough to Hall. The Jets need to slow this game down take their time on offense to keep Anthony Richardson off the field and make sure that Hall gets his carries. The Colts have allowed the second most rushing yards to opponents this season. I think Hall gets 20+ touches for 80 yards and a touchdown.
Joe Mixon, Texans
Mixon has been the Texans MVP this season. This week, he’s playing the Cowboys, who’ve allowed the third most touchdowns to opposing running backs and the highest yards per target to running backs out of the backfield. Why that stat is important? Imagine if CJ Stroud can find Mixon on one or two outlet passes he might be able to take the receptions 20 to 30 yards each and make some big plays. Look for Mixon to have 120 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
Kareem Hunt, Chiefs
The Chiefs versus the Bills may be a preview of the AFC championship game. What I like about this matchup is that the teams aren’t going to want to show their entire offensive arsenal, as they know that there’s a good chance that they may see each other again when it counts before the Super Bowl. Because the Chiefs are going to keep their playbook close to the vest, they’re going to hand the ball off a lot to Kareem Hunt and, more importantly, throw the ball to him out of the backfield. The Bills have let up the most receptions to opposing running backs, and Hunt should dominate to the tune of 18 fantasy points this week.
Nick Chubb, Browns
The Saints have led up 5.17 yards per carry this season and they’ve also let up the second most touchdowns to opposing running backs. We haven’t seen the best of Nick Chubb yet but we’ve seen him be more involved in the offense and this might be the week where he finds the end zone for a touchdown.
George Pickens, Steelers
The Ravens have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, the most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, and the second most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Moreover, they have the worst DVOA against WR1 in the league. You put all those things together, and it’s screaming out to play George Pickens in Week 11. I’ll be locking him in visionary style
Garrett Wilson, Jets
The Colts have allowed close to 9 yards per target, which is one of the highest numbers in the league. They’ve also allowed the 7th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. What this means is that big-play receivers can have great games against the Colts, so there is huge upside potential. Wilson is the guy who can take the top off the defense, and hopefully, Aaron Rodgers will recognize this and feature Wilson instead of Adams in a must-win game.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Two statistics that that caught my attention were that the Falcons allow a 70% catch rate to opposing wide receivers and that Atlanta has the second-worst DVOA against WR1 in the league. This basically tells me that the Falcons are allowing wide receivers to catch the ball in front of them to make sure that they don’t beat them deep. Sutton has been Bo Nix’s favorite target and I’m going to lock him in all my teams.
Cedric Tillman, Browns
I think people don’t realize that Tillman has been one of the top WR1 in fantasy football over the past few weeks. In Week 11 he gets the Saints, who have allowed the 4th most receiving yards against as well as the fourth most passing attempts against them. Tillman has been getting peppered with targets, averaging over nine targets over the last three games he’s played. I think he gets double-digit targets, 100 receiving yards, and a touchdown this week.
Jameson Williams, Lions
When we think about boom or bust players, Jameson Williams is the poster child. He’s highly inconsistent, but when he has that boom game, he can catch 4 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown, which is what’s going to help you win your fantasy matchups. I especially like when he plays at home in the Dome on the turf where his speed separates him from his competitors. I also like the fact that Jacksonville has the worst DVOA versus WR2 in the league. Put this all together, and it should mean a great game for Williams.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers:
Freiermuth is my favorite play at tight end in Week 11. The Ravens have allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends, the most targets to opposing tight ends, and the third most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. In short, the Ravens have been an unmitigated disaster on defense, and Freiermuth is a very reliable receiver who runs terrific routes. I think he’s got a great shot for 60 yards and a touchdown.
Dawson Knox, Bills
I’ve listed Knox because Kincaid is out with a knee injury. The Chiefs have allowed the most yards to opposing tight ends, so the matchup is excellent. Dawson Knox has a great rapport with Josh Allen and is very effective in the red zone. I’m thinking that Knox will have 50-60 yards receiving and will score a touchdown.
Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
The Raiders have allowed an 82.8% catch rate to opposing tight ends. The Dolphins love to throw Smith short passes that he can make into larger gains. Look for Tua to throw Smith about four or five quick passes, which will allow him to beat opposing linebackers in space. Moreover, the Raiders have allowed the third most touchdowns to opposing tight ends so there’s a good chance that Jonnu finds the end zone as well.
Will Dissly, Chargers
The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed the fifth most targets to opposing tight ends, but even more importantly, they have the worst DVOA versus opposing tight ends. I think Dissly is going to have about 6 or 7 targets for 60 yards and still be overlooked, especially because the Chargers receivers like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have been so good recently.
Tyler Conklin, Jets
I pick on the Colts pass defense pretty much every week because they allow a ton of touchdowns to opposing tight ends (third most in the league) and they have the fourth worst DVOA against opposing tight ends too Conklin often goes overlooked by opposing teams because defenders are concentrating more on Adams and Wilson. If the Jets are in the red zone, don’t be shocked to see Conklin wide open and celebrating scoring a touchdown.
