The performance of hockey goalies from one season to the next is notoriously volatile and difficult to predict. That said, there are certain things that we can look at to help us guess which keepers will be the best for the upcoming season. This article will go over the goalies that I believe will be the top three goalies overall in the NHL this year.
Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
Igor Shesterkin had an impressive 36 wins last year and was a big reason the Rangers were the best team in the Metropolitan Division and were able to make it to the Conference Finals. To put into context just how good Shesterkin has been so far in his career, his .921 save percentage is currently tied with Tuukka Rask for second-best among any goalies who have played at least 200 games since the dawn of the sport. Of the 32 teams in the NHL, the Rangers were the 10th best in shot prevention and 7th best in goals allowed last year and have been top-10 or nearly so in both categories for three consecutive years now. The combination of Shesterkin’s elite skills coupled with the rock-solid environment he enjoys in New York makes him my top pick for this coming season.
Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
After winning the Vezina Trophy last year with the highest save percentage of any primary backstop, Connor Hellebuyck is poised to once again be in contention for the best goalie in the NHL this year. It is fair to say that in many ways, over the past five years, Hellebuyck has been the most consistently great goalie in the game. He has achieved 37 wins in back-to-back seasons- good for 3rd best and 2nd best in the NHL, respectively. Among goalies who played at least 25 games, he has been top ten in several advanced metrics in each of these years while simultaneously playing more total games than any other goalie. Look for Hellebuyck’s success to continue this year behind a largely unchanged Winnipeg defense that was tied with Florida last year for first in the NHL in Goals Against per Game.
Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins
Here’s a crazy stat about the Bruins: Boston has been top 5 in the NHL in Goals Against per Game for seven straight years now coming into the new season (twice coming in first). This is in no small part due to their netminders, who have been superb. Swayman, one of their star performers in recent seasons, has just signed a $66 million contract for the next eight years. While he has never started more than 50 games in a season in the NHL (his most was last year’s 43 starts), Sway has more than made up for this lack of quantity with the quality of his play. He has a superb .919 career save percentage and has been consistently much better than the league average in all the advanced stats I looked into (such as Save % Above Expected and High Danger Save %) since his arrival in the NHL. Swayman’s new contract shows the Bruins have a lot of faith that he can be their number-one keeper for a long time, and he should, at the very least, start the majority of games for the Bruins moving forward. With Boston’s superb defense in front of him and his elite skills in net, Sway seems poised to be one of the top goaltenders in the league this year.
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators
Juuse Saros is an absolute beast. The Nashville Predators know this well and signed Saros to an eight-year, $61.92 million contract even though last year was a bit of a down year overall for the Finnish keeper. This is because, despite being the shortest goalie in the NHL, Saros stands tall and even stands on his head when needed. For three years in a row, Saros has started the most games of any goalie, and for two years, he has had the most saves in the league. But it isn’t just the workload that makes him a standout. Saros’s .917 career save percentage puts him in elite company with the likes of Carey Price, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and the aforementioned Connor Hellebuyck. Now, he will have the pleasure of playing behind a significantly improved Nashville squad, who have made exciting additions both offensively and defensively in the offseason. This could be a team that competes for the Stanley Cup this year, and Saros has what it takes to carry them there on his back.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning
While last year was a down year for Andrei Vasilevskiy, he is still in the top five in the NHL in both wins and save percentage among goalies who have started at least 400 games over the past decade. Vasy’s subpar performance last season may have had to do with the back surgery he had just before the season’s beginning. His recovery held him out for the first two months, which means he likely did not have much of a chance to ramp up before getting thrown back into the fray. If Vasilevsky is back to full health, there is a strong likelihood that we see a bounceback season from him in 2024-25, as he is too good of a netminder to keep underperforming for long.
Jacob Markstrom, New Jersey Devils
After being the primary netminder for the Calgary Flames for the past four years, Markstrom has a new home in New Jersey. This is a welcome change for both sides, as the Devils have been searching for a rock-in-the-net to build around, and Markstrom was sick of dealing with Calgary’s management and ready to move on. The Swedish Meat Wall will be looking to do just that this year for a Devils team with an improved defense after an active offseason. While he hasn’t played particularly well over the past two years, Markstrom had a phenomenal season as recently as 2021-22 when he had 37 wins and an awesome .922 save percentage over 63 starts. Although this was undoubtedly a career year for him and looked like an outlier compared to the vast majority of his other seasons, it at least shows that he is capable of that kind of ceiling as a team’s primary goalie. I suspect that Markstrom will play inspired this year, relishing this chance for a fresh start and capitalizing on it for a team that is also looking forward and moving upwards.
