The Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns game on Sunday has the makings of being one of the most boring of the week. While there are some incredibly exciting and high scoring games this week, this one is one that you can likely avoid tuning into. The Chargers tend to run the football alot, they play a clock game, and they don’t air the ball out. There are very few big plays from the offense, even with rookie wide out Ladd McConkey making plays for QB Justin Herbert. The Browns have made a QB change, with Jameis Winston now under center, but the Chargers defense is stout, and they are unlikely to give up many big plays.
Good: Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons
This game is in its own tier, the fastest-paced game of the week. We could see in the neighborhood of 130-140 plays run in this one! These two teams have the fastest adjusted pace time for the week (26.8) and one of the fastest averages of neutral seconds per snap (25.5). The Cowboys are the fastest in seconds/snap (24.2), 4th in Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (65.5%), 5th in plays run/game (63.1), and 2nd in pass percentage (65.9%). They project for the 4th most plays this week (63.7). The Falcons are 4th in seconds/snap (24.9), 12th in plays run/game (60.5), 6th in Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage (18.2%), and 8th in pass percentage (58.2%). The Falcons’ skill players have great matchups across the board vs this Cowboys defense, including the 2nd most favorable matchup for RBs and the 6th best for QB Kirk Cousins. The Cowboys allow a league-high 9.2 yards per pass attempt when they fail to pressure the quarterback. The Cowboys get favorable matchups in the passing game as it is a good matchup for QB Dak Prescott, along with his WRs and TEs. The Falcons are 29th in the NFL in pressure rate (27.2% of dropbacks) and last in sack rate (2.2%). This game has the highest O/U point total of the week at 52.0, and the Falcons have the highest implied team point total for the week at 27.75.
Good: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs
These two teams have the 2nd fastest adjusted pace time (28.8). The Bucs are 6th in plays/game (63.9), and the Chiefs are 8th (62.7). Games involving Tampa Bay are averaging a league-high 128.9 plays. The Chiefs project for the most plays run this week (65.3). The Bucs are 6th in Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (63.8%) and 9th in Pass Percentage (60.0%). QB Baker Mayfield has thrown the football 95 times in the past two weeks and has thrown 3 or more TDs in four straight games. Bucs are 4th in both points scored per game (29.4) and yards per game (389.5). The Chiefs will be the ones pushing the pace. They come in with the 3rd fastest adjusted pace time (27.9), and their Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected has been climbing in recent weeks and is now near the top half of the NFL at 55%. Both teams protect the QB, Tampa comes in with the 2nd lowest QB pressure percentage (25.8%) while the Chiefs are 4th lowest (26.7%). The Chiefs face a struggling Bucs defense and have favorable matchups across all the skills positions, including the 3rd most favorable for QB Patrick Mahomes and the 4th most favorable for TE Travis Kelce and Chiefs WRs. Tampa Bay games are averaging 56 combined points per game, the 2nd-most in the league. The Chiefs have 3rd highest implied point total for the week at 27.0.
Good: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
This game has the 3rd fastest average adjusted pace time (29.1), and the combined teams will have the 2nd highest Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (62.8%). The Rams are above league average in seconds/snap (27.3), plays/game (61), Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (54%), and Pass Percentage (58%). The Seahawks are 3rd fastest in seconds/snap (24.8) and 10th in plays/game (61.1). They continue to be the most pass-heavy team in the league, with a Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected at 71.6% and a Pass Percentage of 66.3%. The Rams face a middle-of-the-road Seahawks defense that has been really struggling to stop opposing QBs over the past five games. They have been particularly bad at stopping play action, a staple of the Rams offense. This matchup favors Stafford, the running game, and the Rams’ TEs. The Rams defense isn’t stopping many people, allowing 5.8 yards/play, which is 6th worst in the league, while also giving up big plays that include the highest average yards per TD play. This game has the week’s 3rd highest O/U points total at 48.5.
Bad: New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
This game features two of the worst offenses in the NFL this season. The Patriots offense has improved a little since Drake Maye took over as the starting QB, but the Titans has actually gotten worse. They are currently dealing with key injuries on offense and they traded away their top WR DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs. This game should be one of the lowest scoring on the entire slate today.
