#1 – Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
This game has all the makings of a track meet; it’s in the dome on the fast track, and these two teams have the fastest adjusted pace time (27.9). Kirk Cousins has led the league in passing yards over the last 3 games, and Geno Smith is not far behind. In this one, you’ve got elite RBs and WRs on both sides of the ball, so there are endless stacking options for DFS purposes. The Seahawks run 64.5 plays/per game, which is the fourth-highest in the league. Seattle is also the 2nd fastest in seconds/snap (24.1), while Atlanta is the 3rd fastest (24.7). The Seahawks have the highest Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected of 74.6%, which is by a wide margin over the next highest team. Both teams’ pass percentages are over 60% and at the top of the league. Both teams run a fair amount of Non Two-Minute No Huddle, which should create a few more plays in this one. This game has an over/under point total of the week at 51.5.
HOUSTON, TEXAS – JANUARY 13: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans drops back and looks to pass during an NFL wild-card playoff football game between the Houston Texans and the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium on January 13, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
#2 – Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
This game features two of the bright young Quarterbacks in the league, with CJ Stroud facing off against Jordan Love. Over the past three games, these two have a combined 16 passing touchdowns, setting the stage for what should be a game filled with fireworks. The Texans run more plays per game than any other team in the league (65.3), while the Packers are 9th(63.7). The Texans Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected is 60%, the 9th highest. Green Bay’s recent success has come through the air. From Weeks 5 to 6, the Packers moved from 18th to ninth in the NFL in EPA/pass (0.03). The Packers are now fourth in the NFL in yards per game (400.8) and 8th in ppg (27.0). Both defenses are better vs the run than the pass, which sets up nicely for these clicking passing games. This game has an over/under point total of 48.5.
LANDOVER, MARYLAND – OCTOBER 06: Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders rushes against the Cleveland Browns at Northwest Stadium on October 06, 2024 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
#3 – Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders
The Panthers are 5th fastest in seconds/snap (26.1), 9th in Pass Percentage (61%) and 12th in Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (58%). Both teams are in the league’s top half in plays run per game. Washington continues to run over half their offensive plays in Non Two-Minute No Huddle at a rate of 55%, which ranks 2nd among all NFL teams since 2016. This game has an over/under point total of 51.5, mostly because of these bad defenses. The Commanders’ defense is a top 12 Most Favorable Matchup for opposing QBs and RBs and a top 3 matchup for opposing WRs. The Panthers defense is awful, it’s a top Five Most favorable matchups across all skill positions. They have given up 34 points per game on the season.
