It’s Dynasty Rookie Draft season, which means many Dynasty leagues are awakening after a post-Super Bowl hibernation. While everyone is falling in love with this year’s crop of rookies, this can also be a great time to work on some bigger trade deals. With that in mind, let’s take a look at arguably the most valuable assets in any Dynasty league — the top quarterbacks. Here are my top Dynasty fantasy football quarterback rankings, with an explanation for each player:
Dynasty Fantasy Football Top 10 Quarterbacks
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
A year ago at this time, I would have put Patrick Mahomes in this spot. I was even justifying taking him in the first round of 1-QB Dynasty Startups. But there’s no denying Josh Allen at this point. He has been the overall QB1 in three of the last four years and was the QB2 in the one year where he didn’t claim the top spot. At 27 years old, he would be approaching the age cliff at other positions, but we know that quarterbacks can play well into their 30s. It is fair to be concerned that Allen, a dual-threat QB who takes plenty of hits, will age less gracefully than his pocket-passing counterparts — just look at Cam Newton, who had his last elite fantasy season at age 28 and is now out of the league at 34 thanks largely to injuries that sapped his effectiveness. These exact concerns are why I took Mahomes over Allen last year. But with even Mahomes, the ultimate pocket passer, being reduced to a check-down merchant and the QB8 in fantasy in 2023, these dual-threat QBs are worth the risk.
2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
This pick may be more controversial. While Allen is the consensus Dynasty QB1, Hurts is all the way down at QB5 on KeepTradeCut’s (KTC) crowdsourced Dynasty rankings. But here are facts that have me backing the Tush Push King: 1. Hurts was the QB2 behind Allen in both total points and points per game in 2023. 2. Hurts is currently being drafted as the QB2 for 2024 Redraft leagues. 3. Hurts is younger than his top competition for this spot at 25 (soon to be 26) years old. Putting these factors together, I don’t see how I can have anyone above him. Yes, Hurts is probably not as good of an NFL player as guys like Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. His superior fantasy success is largely based on his elite supporting cast and, yes, the tush push (he scored over a quarter of his 2023 fantasy points on his 15 rushing TDs, by far the most of any quarterback). But neither of those is going anywhere anytime soon (even if they do eventually ban the tush push, I’m not convinced Hurts won’t be 99% as successful with classic QB sneaks). Hurts should be falling forward into the end zone and to the top of fantasy leaderboards for years to come.
3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Sticking with my “young enough elite dual-threat producers” trend, there’s a very good argument for Lamar Jackson, last year’s QB3 in points per game and the current Redraft QB3, in this spot. But Lamar has had down seasons of his own (finishes of QB14, QB15, and QB10 in the three years before last, albeit mostly as a result of injuries), so he doesn’t quite bring the near-guaranteed elite output of Hurts and especially Allen. He is also 1.5 years older than Hurts, which isn’t much, but it does matter. And as soon as I can start finding nits to pick with other quarterbacks, I might as well do the easy thing and rank the BOAT, Patrick Mahomes. Yes, Mahomes is somehow already approaching 29 years old (time flies). But I expect Mahomes to follow in the footsteps of the last generational quarterback, Tom Brady (can’t talk about Mahomes without mentioning Brady), and age gracefully. Mahomes’ fantasy production has slowed down somewhat as defenses have focused more and more on preventing his trademark explosive plays, but he has still been a top-eight fantasy QB for each of the last six years, including four top-five finishes. And the Chiefs appear to be bringing that element of their offense back a bit with the addition of two burners in Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. At the end of the day, it’s Patrick Mahomes; I almost feel disrespectful ranking him as “just” the QB3.
4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
As I mentioned in Mahomes’ blurb, Lamar has had his inconsistencies in terms of fantasy production, mainly due to injuries. But the reigning MVP has still been a top-half QB1 in points per game in each of the last five years, including fully breaking the game with 28 (!!) points per game in 2019. Jackson performed well in new OC Todd Monken’s more pass-happy offense in 2023, and there’s no reason to think he won’t remain a top fantasy QB for the foreseeable future.
5. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
This ranking actually makes me “low” on Stroud, who is currently ranked as the Dynasty QB3 on KTC. But that’s a title I will happily take, as I think Stroud is overvalued in all formats coming off his excellent rookie year. This is because, as incredible as his rookie year was, Stroud still wasn’t that great for fantasy. Stealing from my retrospective of Houston’s 2023 season: “[F]rom a fantasy perspective, Stroud’s season doesn’t quite live up to the hype. He posted just four top-10 QB finishes during the fantasy season, with one more if we count Week 18. He also had more regular season games below 20 fantasy points (nine) than he did above (six). The standard of passing production required to be an elite fantasy QB with almost no rushing upside (Stroud averaged just 11 yards per game on the ground) is insanely high, and Stroud’s rookie year simply didn’t reach it.” The addition of Stefon Diggs might (heavy emphasis on might) allow Stroud to reach elite fantasy status in 2024, but the veteran WR is on just a one-year deal. Once Diggs is (presumably) gone, I think Stroud will settle in as more of a yearly backend QB1 than a yearly top-five QB. You could argue that around five extra years (around the average age difference between Stroud and the four names above him) of QB1 production outweighs the fact that his yearly output won’t quite be the same. But with the uncertainty of the NFL and the nature of Dynasty fantasy football (elite production is worth exponentially more than just good production), I’d rather chase those true top-tier producers.
6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
The argument for Burrow is similar to the argument for Mahomes. He doesn’t have the upside of his dual-threat counterparts, but he’s almost guaranteed to provide QB1 production for the foreseeable future (barring injury). Even in 2023, probably the worst year of his young career, Burrow put up top-three numbers over his last five games before his season ended due to a wrist injury. I don’t expect Burrow to be quite as situation-proof as Mahomes (he’s just not as good, but who is?), so he may regress some when Tee Higgins’ seemingly inevitable departure finally comes along. But Burrow is the only player left unranked whom I feel comfortable projecting for QB1 production for years to come, so here he lands.
7. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
I’m hedging my bets with this one. By this time next year, Richardson is very likely to either be near the top of this list or off of it completely. The reason why is simple: If he can stick in the NFL, Richardson is going to be a fantasy monster … but it’s not yet clear if he will. In his abbreviated rookie season, A-Rich lapped the field in points per full game (25.8!) and points per dropback (0.76). Yes, this was a small sample size, but it’s clear that his dual-threat ability and usage have him in rare air when it comes to fantasy production. On the other hand, Richardson posted a very low 52.2 PFF Grade as a rookie, along with a concerningly high 22.6% pressure-to-sack rate. Among 49 quarterbacks with at least as many as his 98 dropbacks, he ranked 25th in yards per attempt and 40th in adjusted completion percentage while posting the 18th-highest Turnover Worthy Play rate. NFELO had him worth -0.8 points per game compared to the average starter, right between Tyler Huntley and Gardner Minshew. I’m all-in on Richardson for Redraft, but in Dynasty we have to be concerned about the very real chance he doesn’t have a starting job within the next couple of years. Still, his sky-high upside (not to mention the fact that even if he doesn’t improve as a real-life QB, his Dynasty value will likely increase once he resumes putting up bonkers numbers) has the 21-year-old solidly inside my top 10.
8. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
My argument for Kyler is very similar to the one I used for Hurts. His current Redraft ADP is QB8, and he’s relatively young at 26 years old. Why shouldn’t he be ranked highly as a Dynasty quarterback? Keep in mind that Murray has always been elite for fantasy on a per-game basis. Even last year, a year which some predicted he would miss entirely while recovering from an ACL injury, Kyler was a top-10 quarterback in points per game. Fully healthy and with Marvin Harrison Jr. to throw to, I expect him to return to posting elite numbers in 2024. His size and running style do come with durability concerns, but I’m not a big believer in predicting injuries; I wouldn’t be surprised if K1 is even higher up this list a year from now.
9. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
The fact that he is inside my top 10 rankings (and I’m lower on him than the community — KTC has him ranked at QB6) before ever having played a snap of NFL football is a testament to just how good of a prospect Caleb Williams is. Destined to be the first-overall pick in the 2023 draft since he won the Heisman Trophy as a 20-year-old sophomore, Williams dominated college football with his arm talent and improvisational ability. He’s not a true dual-threat QB, but he will add some value with his legs, having racked up 1500 yards and 27 TDs in his three years in the NCAA. He also walks into about as good a situation as a first-overall pick can hope for, as Chicago has prepared for his arrival with talented receivers in D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. Like any rookie, Caleb could still bust, but I’m confident enough that he doesn’t to give him a spot on this list.
10. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
The final spot on this list was the hardest one for me to fill. The easy answer would be Justin Herbert, but I can’t justify a 26-year-old currently being drafted as the QB17 in Redraft as a top-10 Dynasty option. I was also tempted to end the list with back-to-back rookies, as Jayden Daniels profiles similarly to Richardson as a player with the skill set to be an elite fantasy QB if he can just hold on to a starting job. I even considered Dak Prescott, who has a dreaded “3” at the beginning of his age but was a top-three quarterback in fantasy scoring in 2023. In the end, I settled on Love, who is younger than Dak, more of a sure thing than Daniels, and likely to outproduce Herbert. Love’s 2023 fantasy production was a little lucky in terms of touchdowns, but that’s only if we include his whole season. By the end of 2023, which was his first real season as an NFL starter, Love was simply playing at an excellent, sustainable, backend QB1 level. He probably has the lowest season-to-season upside of any name on this list, but I like Love’s chances to continue to thrive with his young group of weapons for the foreseeable future.
