The Broncos came into the 2023 season with lots of hype and finished it by benching their starting quarterback for contract reasons. Let’s take a look back at the ups and downs (mostly downs) that they went trhoug
Ground Rules: Check out the first edition here for a full explanation of what’s going on. All scoring is Half-PPR, Week 18 stats are not included (so a full season is 16 games), and only players currently being drafted in the top 200 of Underdog Best Ball drafts are covered.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 264.9; QB12
- Games Played: 15
- Points Per Game: 17.7; QB15
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 15
- Points Per Full Game: 17.7; QB15
In doing my research for this blurb, I was honestly surprised by how not-that-bad a lot of Wilson’s 2023 stats look. His 4.8% completion percentage over expected was the third-best of any quarterback in the league, and he ranked around the middle of the pack in both standard and adjusted net yards per attempt. Combine that with 359 rushing yards (ninth-most among QBs) and three rushing touchdowns, and Russ was a fringe fantasy QB1 for most of the season. On the other hand, Wilson still wasn’t exactly an effective NFL quarterback. In his first year in a Sean Payton offense, Wilson’s ADOT was just 7.8, by far the lowest of his career. He only just barely managed a positive EPA per dropback at 0.01, thanks largely to finishing fourth in the league with 45 sacks on an unimpressive 20.6% pressure-to-sack ratio. And among the 25 quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks in 2023, the nine-time Pro Bowler ranked 18th in PFF Passing Grade … and the seven names below him aren’t pretty.
Takeaway
Everything I just said doesn’t exactly paint a rosy picture of Russell Wilson as a player heading into 2024, which will be his first season with the Steelers … but it almost doesn’t matter. He is currently horrendously undervalued, at least in early Best Ball drafts, as the QB30 in ADP. Despite multiple explicit sources stating that Wilson is the favorite to be the Steelers’ starting quarterback, he is currently being drafted nearly 40 picks after his own backup, Justin Fields (check out the Bears edition for my take on Fields). To be fair, Fields’ truly insane ADP is doing the heavy lifting in that comparison; but even putting the comparison aside, QB30 is simply too low for Russ coming off a QB12 finish (QB15 in points per game). Yes, Pittsburgh’s new OC, Arthur Smith, is likely going to implement a run-heavy offense. But we have to remember that it was just four years ago that Smith managed to get a top-10 fantasy season out of a similar quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. Even Desmond Ridder was the QB26 in points per full game last season — not ideal, but still higher than Wilson’s QB30 ADP. I should acknowledge that there is a real chance Wilson is benched at some point during the season for Fields, which is a fair reason to avoid drafting him. But the thing is, for every bad EPA and PFF number Wilson posted in 2023, Fields was worse. Especially with a strong running game and defense to lean on, Wilson has a decent chance to hold onto the starting job in Pittsburgh all season long. With that in mind, I love him as a QB3 pick in Best Ball or 2-QB formats.
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Running Back
Javonte Williams
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 138.7; RB31
- Games Played: 15
- Points Per Game: 9.2; RB38
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 13
- Points Per Full Game: 9.9; RB34
It’s hard to look at Javonte Williams’ third season as anything other than a disappointment. For one, despite his much-hyped three-down skill set, he wasn’t his team’s most efficient or most-used receiving back. The Broncos did easily lead the league with an insane 32.1% target share for running backs, so Williams still racked up 55 targets, but he played just 10% of Denver’s passing-down snaps and only 2% of their two-minute-drill snaps, with veteran Samaje Perine dominating both categories. Perine was also a much more efficient receiver, ranking fourth in PFF Receiving Grade to Williams’ 33rd (out of 61 qualified RBs). Williams did rank 10th among RBs in yards per route run … but Perine ranked first, and rookie Jaleel McLaughlin ranked sixth, so that was likely more a product of Sean Payton’s RB-target-heavy scheme than anything else.
Williams’ season doesn’t look great on the ground, either. According to SumerSports, he ranked 42nd out of 50 backs with at least 100 carries with -0.28 yards created per carry. PFF Graded him 52nd out of 59 qualified backs in Rush Grade, and he generated just a 40 PFF Elusive Rating, a huge drop off from 98.7 and 116.3 in his first two seasons. It is worth noting that this was Williams’ first year back from a torn ACL, but there was no upward trend throughout the season to suggest a slow return to health. To put things another way: Despite finishing the season 17th in carries and 19th among RBs in targets, Williams was just the RB31 in Half-PPR fantasy points.
Takeaway
Williams’ current ADP is RB29, which I think is too high given his 2023 performance. If anything, his situation has changed for the worse, as McLaughlin may command a bigger role in his second season and the Broncos don’t currently have an NFL-caliber starting quarterback on their roster (sorry, Jarrett Stidham). I am slightly tempted by the idea that he will return to his early-career efficiency numbers with another offseason to recover from his ACL injury; however, the lack of any upward trend in 2023, as well as the severe cap on his ceiling due to the presences of Perine and McLaughlin, means that outcome is both less likely and less potentially profitable than it might appear at first glance. He’s by no means the most overvalued player on the board, and I don’t hate taking him if you truly believe in the one-year-post-ACL bounceback, but I’m going to pass on Williams more often than not at his current draft price.
Jaleel McLaughlin
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 89.9; RB45
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 5.6; RB56
Beyond The Box Scores
- Games Over 20% Snap Share: 6
- Points Per Full Game: 9.6; RB36
McLaughlin played a satellite role in his rookie season, but he did flash explosive playmaking ability. His 5.4 yards per carry landed him second to only De’Von Achane for the season, and his 85.2 PFF Receiving Grade ranked third to only Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall. SumerSports has him third among 62 qualified running backs in both yards created and relative yards per carry. He also ranked top five in each of PFF Elusive Rating, missed tackles forced per rush, and yards after contact per attempt. To make a long story short, the rookie was electric with the ball in his hands … the only problem was what he did without it. Technically, PFF graded McLaughlin higher than both Williams and Perine in terms of pass-blocking (although all three rank very badly), but that was on a truly irrelevant sample size of just six pass-blocking snaps, pointing to a bigger issue: The Broncos’ coaches don’t trust the 5’8″ 187-pound McLaughlin as a blocker. He also never played more than 28% of snaps, saw more than 11 touches, or finished inside the top-24 fantasy running backs with Williams healthy … but he did finish as a top-10 RB in Weeks 4 and 5 with Williams sidelined, still on just a 33% snap share.
Takeaway
I’m conflicted on McLaughlin. At first glance, he looks exactly like the kind of efficient young back behind an inefficient veteran who could be a league-winner. His efficiency metrics speak for themselves, as do his back-to-back top-10 finishes as soon as his role expanded even slightly. But his lack of size likely means he will never see a lead early-down role, and his lack of blocking ability (or at least Denver’s lack of trust in him as a blocker) likely means he will never see a lead passing-down role. That leaves me struggling to find a path for the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher to provide even consistent RB2 production, let alone league-winning upside. He’s an okay Best Ball pick at his RB45 ADP, as he will have spike weeks due to his explosive ability. But given that he is still likely unstartable in Redraft leagues barring an injury to either Willaims or Perine, I would rather target players like Tyler Allgeier or Elijah Mitchell, who are also handcuffs but at least have proven they can handle full NFL workloads.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 160; WR31
- Games Played: 15
- Points Per Game: 10.7; WR33
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 14
- Points Per Full Game: 11.4; WR25
Sutton was the Broncos’ most-targeted player in 2023, but his 90 targets landed him just 54th in the league, while his 19% target share ranked 32nd among WRs. On the bright side, his 13.0 ADOT was solidly above average, and he made the most of his 6’3″ frame where it matters most, leading the league with eight TDs on 17 targets in the red zone. Sutton also ranked slightly above average among 96 qualified WRs in both adjusted and non-adjusted yards per route run, as well as solidly above average in PFF Receiving Grade. On the fantasy side, Sutton was remarkably consistent, with no huge games but also very few duds: He scored between 9.1 and 16.6 Half-PPR points in all but two of his 14 healthy games.
Takeaway
It’s hard to ignore the Broncos’ QB situation, but I can’t help but see Sutton as a value at WR49 in ADP, even if Jarrett Stidham is Denver’s Week 1 starter. To put that into context, the six players directly above Sutton in current Underdog ADP are Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Christian Watson, Jameson Williams, Adonai Mitchell, Romeo Doubs, and Mike Williams. Where Sutton is the Broncos’ clear WR1, those players all have much more cloudy paths to consistent volume. And consistent volume is king in fantasy football. Sutton isn’t some transcendent talent, but he is solid, and I trust him to turn his volume into another season of WR3 or flex-level production — a great value for deeper leagues that far down in the draft.
Jerry Jeudy
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 99.4; WR54
- Games Played: 15
- Points Per Game: 6.6; WR64
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 15
- Points Per Full Game: 6.6; WR64
The final season of Jeudy’s Broncos tenure was much like his first three years: disappointing. The 15th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft had exactly one top-24 finish in the 2023 season … and even that came in Week 18, after the vast majority of fantasy leagues had completed their seasons. And unlike his teammate Sutton, Jeudy provided no high floor to go with his lack of ceiling: He scored 8.0 or fewer fantasy points in nine of his 15 games during the fantasy season. To be fair to Jeudy, he finished right next to Sutton in both adjusted and non-adjusted yards per route run, although he did rank much lower in PFF Grade. Even still, there just isn’t a lot to get excited about with his profile at this point.
Takeaway
Jeudy is now in Cleveland, having been traded to the Browns for a fifth and a sixth-round pick. While a change of scenery might be a good thing, I’m still not particularly excited about his fantasy prospects. He will likely be the team’s third target behind Amari Cooper and David Njoku, and Deshaun Watson isn’t a good enough QB to support three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. His WR58 ADP is reasonable enough, but there are other players I would rather have in that stage of drafts. If you’re drafting Jeudy at this point, you’re betting more on his prospect pedigree than what he has actually shown in the NFL.
Marvin Mims
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 57.5; WR85
- Games Played: 15
- Points Per Game: 3.8; WR95
Beyond The Box Scores
- Games Played Above A 40% Snap Share: 5
- Points Per Game Played Above A 40% Snap Share: 2.7; WR122
It is telling that Mims actually performed worse if we look only at games where he played significant snaps. I noticed this trend during the season, saying after Week 12:
“We as a fantasy community (myself included) may have overrated Marvin Mims based on his explosive plays early in the season. He saw targets at an elite rate in a part-time role (perhaps because they were being schemed up) but has posted a pitiful 10% targets per route run rate since first breaking 40% route participation in Week 7.”
That is essentially the story of Mims’ rookie season. He was exciting and explosive in a part-time role, posting back-to-back top-20 fantasy finishes in Weeks 2 and 3 and ranking fourth in the league in yards per route run through eight weeks. But his efficiency declined steadily as his sample size expanded, and he never scored more than six Half-PPR points outside of those two early big weeks. He didn’t see enough targets to be a qualified receiver, but if he did PFF would have had him as the 68th-ranked receiver out of 97. As with his fellow rookie McLaughlin, we also can’t ignore the usage (or lack thereof) that Mims earned from Denver’s coaches: He consistently ran fewer routes than either Lil’Jordan Humphrey or Brandon Johnson (not to mention Sutton and Jeudy), including in each of his final four healthy games. Sure, rookies often have to earn roles, but being unable to beat out two former UDFAs by the end of your rookie season is a red flag.
Takeaway
I’m out on Mims for 2024, even all the way down at WR67 in ADP. He struggled to earn routes over mediocre competition as a rookie, and he wasn’t particularly productive with the routes he did earn. The departure of Jeudy is definitely a good thing for his value, but it is arguably offset by Wilson’s departure leaving Denver with a big question mark at quarterback. I also wouldn’t be too quick to assume that Mims takes all the snaps vacated by Jeudy; Johnson and Humphrey are both still in town, and new singing Josh Reynolds is a solid, underrated WR. There’s certainly a chance Mims takes a step forward in his second season in the league, earns an every-down role, hits on those big plays more consistently, and becomes a valuable fantasy asset. But there are other players around his ADP who are more likely to become someone you want in your lineup in 2024.
Tight End
No Broncos tight ends are currently being drafted above the 200 ADP threshold to earn themselves a blurb. I expect Greg Dulcich and Adam Trautman to cannibalize each other out of fantasy relevance, and the community seems to agree. (If I had to pick, I’d take Dulcich, who did flash solid receiving potential as a rookie.).
