The last time MLB had a work stoppage was before the 2022 season, lasting 99 days from December 2nd, 2021, to March 10th, 2022. The stoppage caused 91 games to be missed. Before that, the biggest stoppage that crippled the game was way back in the 1994 and 1995 seasons. 948 regular-season games were missed, as well as the 1994 World Series.
The 2027 season is in jeopardy with another lockout looming, which could do more damage than the lockout 30 years ago. The biggest sticking point and cause of the clash between the owners and the players is a hard salary cap, or lack thereof. There are other issues, but they all seem to be able to be brokered… the wall that everyone seems willing to die on is the salary cap.
I believe that anything can be negotiated, and, like our current president, I consider myself an excellent negotiator…I’ve been a sales broker for over 30 years, so I’m willing to throw my hat into this ring.
To begin with, baseball is the ONLY major sport without a salary cap. The NFL, NBA, and NHL all have a salary cap. The players need that point drilled into them. They argue that they already play under a cap. There is a limit on how much owners can spend, and if they go over it, they’ll pay a luxury tax.
The players need to be convinced that the current system works against them, because only a very small handful of teams can go over the tax or are willing to do so anyway. To really sell a hard cap, a hard floor also has to be incorporated.
I propose a $400M ceiling with a $200M floor. Currently, there is only one team with a total 40-man CB payroll over $400M (Los Angeles Dodgers). But, there are 15 current teams, a full half of the league, with payrolls under $200M.
If a $200M floor were implemented, an additional $839M in payroll would need to be added by those 15 teams, going directly to the players and increasing payrolls across the board. A rising tide raises all boats. That is a big win for the players.
Another issue is expansion. Baseball wants to add two teams, bringing the total to 32. Those two teams should enter the league with a minimum starting payroll of $300M, which is the midpoint between $ 200M and $400M. The increase in overall payroll, with the floor at $200M and $600M for two extra teams, totals $1.439B. That translates into an added average of $1.73M per player. It increases the MLB player pool by 52 and adds two new, complete farm systems. Again, this is a big win for the players.
Another issue the two sides are at loggerheads over is service time. Players hate being tied to a team for six years. I doubt the players will accept a reduction to five years, and the owners will never agree to three years. A perfect compromise is four years. This is another big win for the players.
The owners want to impose restrictions on free agency regarding contract lengths. They should scrap this idea completely. If they can convince the players to accept a ceiling and floor, it is unnecessary and redundant for the owners to impose additional restrictions on free agency. With a hard ceiling and floor in place, team owners should be able to structure their teams however they want, with contracts as long and as high as they want, as long as the final team salary stays within the $200M-$400M range.
After these major points, the rest is just window dressing and can be dealt with fairly easily. Build in an annual escalator, like 2%, for the ceiling and floor to increase throughout the CBA, and call it a day.
The alternative, of a long and acrimonious negotiation and lockout, isn’t good for anyone. And it’s worse for the fans. A drawn-out work stoppage could kill this game that all of us seamheads love so much.
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