eek 11 is almost a full slate, with just the Saints and Colts taking the week off with a bye. leaving us with 15 games to break down. This week looks like more of the same of what we were expecting last week, with only one game with an expected game total north of 50 points. While last week may have started and ended with two low-scoring affairs (both with identical 10-7 final scores), we did get a bunch of high-scoring games thanks to some lopsided games. Six of the twelve games played on Sunday finished with over 50 points scored, with five of them eclipsing 60. The shocker of the bunch was the one game projected for over 50 points. In Miami, the Bills had one of their classic “what the hell is going on here” days against the Dolphins, and that game’s total fell short of the 50.5 projected number thanks to the inept Buffalo offense falling in a 30-13 defeat. Let’s take a look at this week’s games and see if we can pick out which games will be higher scoring than the books expect.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-11.5)
Surprisingly, the Jets have now managed to avoid a loss in three straight weeks. Truth be told, that has as much to do with the Bengals and Browns as it does with New York also having their bye week sandwiched in between those two games. This week, they travel to Foxboro to take on the first-place Patriots, who sit at 8-2 after their week ten win in Tampa. The Jets offense is still a muddled mess, and they will now be without Garrett Wilson for another 3-4 weeks. There really isn’t any logical reason why they should even be competitive in this game other than the trend that has been the narrative of almost every one of these Thursday night games that feature a division matchup. In 6 of the 7 such matchups, the underdog has covered and has even won outright 3 times (49ers, Giants, and Bengals). There is a very good chance that the Jets are able to cover the healthy number, but I just can’t see them winning the game outright. As it is, they will need a couple of splash plays like they got from their special teams last week against the Browns to even stay close. Drake Maye has been stellar all season, but he has had a few moments where he’s been careless with the football, so it’s very possible he turns the ball over early, helping the Jets to some easier scoring opportunities. This is basically me trying to squint as hard as possible to figure out a way that the Jets stay competitive in a game that they really have no right to be close in. I’m taking the Pats to win the game, but avoiding the big number if I can.
Patriots 22 – Jets 16
Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Things have gotten pretty bad in Washington lately (insert silly political joke here). The Commanders are just lost right now without Jaydin Daniels and Terry McLaurin. Things are so bad that they are almost a field goal underdog to the 3-7 Dolphins, who currently rank 24th overall in total defense and 26th against the rush. Those numbers are both improvements from where they were prior to last week’s game, thanks to their surprise performance against Buffalo, holding the Bills to just 87 yards on the ground and 13 total points. The Commanders will be led by Marcus Mariota under center, so we don’t expect too much passing, and it’s not likely they will be able to exploit the Dolphins run defense with a rushing attack that has averaged under 4 yards per carry over their last 5 games (all losses). Those 5 games have included a couple against two of the worst run defenses in the league, in Dallas and Chicago, so I don’t expect Bill Crosskey and Chris Rodriguez to have big games this weekend. This game will come down to which team is able to make more big plays, and the Dolphins have the two biggest playmakers in this contest on their roster in De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle. I’m taking the home team here to win and cover.
Dolphins 27 – Commanders 19
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
The Falcons are home favorites in this matchup for some reason, despite sitting at 3-6 and losing 30-0 the last time these two teams met. It feels like a trap. The Panthers have shown that they’re capable of beating tough teams when they travelled to Lambeau and beat the Packers in week 9. They then followed that up with a loss to the Saints, at home, showing us, they can lose to anybody in any given week as well. The Falcons have been similarly a Jekyll and Hyde squad, with two of their three wins coming as underdogs (@Minnesota, vs. Buffalo) while losing a couple of games as heavy favorites, including their embarrassing week 3 loss in Carolina. The point being, we just don’t know which version of each of these teams is going to show up this Sunday in Atlanta. As of now, all of the relevant skill position players are healthy, and as far as pure talent, we have to give the Falcons a slight edge. Raheem Morris is a bit of an X-factor, and not in a good way, so the talent differential is somewhat nullified by that fact. Atlanta fans have to be wondering when he will start using Bijan Robinson the way other teams use their star players. If Morris could take a note or two from what the 49ers did when these two teams played, he might have noticed that Christian McCaffrey had his number called on 32 of the 49ers 63 plays. Meanwhile, Bijan was limited to 14 carries and was targeted less than both Drake London and Kyle Pitts by Michael Penix. This past week, Tyler Allgeier had 11 carries to Robinson’s 17, and if the Falcons want to actually start winning games, that has to change. The Falcons should bounce back and win this game, but I just don’t trust Morris enough to lay the 3.5 points. I’ll pick them to win the game, but I’m staying away from the spread.
Falcons 22 – Panthers 20
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Well, one of these teams is about to lose their second game in a row. Both teams are very good, but they have both been dealing with some inconsistency this season. The Bucs have had their troubles due to a litany of injuries that have plagued them for the entire season. We aren’t sure yet if either Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin will be back this week, but Baker Mayfield will be there, and he’s been giving Tampa everything he’s got every week. To his credit, he’s kept them in every game, and this week should be no different. The real problem in this matchup for Tampa is the fact that Buffalo is much weaker against the run than against the pass, and Sean Tucker and Rachaad White aren’t good enough to exploit that weakness. With both teams looking to bounce back after a loss, I’m expecting the Bills to pull this one out in front of their home crowd. It’s going to be cold and quite possibly rainy/snowy this Sunday, so I expect Josh Allen to have a big game along with James Cook on the ground, even against Tampa’s solid run defense. Give me Buffalo to get back in the win column and cover.
Bills 24 – Bucs 16
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (+7.5)
The Texans pulled out a close one in come-from-behind fashion last week against the Jaguars with Davis Mills under center. This week, they should get C.J. Stroud back as he clears the league’s concussion protocol, and they travel to Nashville to take on the hapless Titans. The Titans got a reprieve from their losing ways thanks to the kindness of the NFL schedule makers, who decided they didn’t have to play last week. They did manage to win a game earlier this year, so it is theoretically possible that they win again, but it isn’t happening this week against this defense. The Jaguars managed 29 points last week thanks to a punt return for a score and a bunch of field goals. I doubt Cam Ward and company will be able to put up anywhere that number, while the Texans will ride both Nick Chubb and Woody Marks up and down the field, mixed in with plenty of Nico Collins. Take the Texans to win easily, beware the dreaded late back door cover. Don’t be surprised if Houston has a 14–15-point lead late and the cover comes down to a two-point conversion.
Texans 26 – Titans 18
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
The Bears were last week’s lucky recipients of the New York Giants weekly “Oprah Winfrey Win Giveaway”. Caleb Williams rebounded nicely last week in the second half, showing his dual-threat ability as both a passer and a runner, leading the Bears to a late score and a victory. This week, Caleb and friends travel to Minneapolis to take on a Vikings team that lost again at home this past weekend to the Ravens, dropping their record at U.S. Bank Stadium to 2-4 on the season. Both of these teams have been up and down, with the Bears holding a 2-game lead over the Vikings for first place in the division, where they sit tied with Detroit at 6-3 (Detroit holds the tiebreaker). The books have Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite, and I’m leaning that way as well. The Vikings just need this game more, and while they did lose last week, we saw some signs of life from J.J. McCarthy as well as their running game. McCarthy will have to do better than the 48% completion rate from last week, and he needs to get the ball into the hands of Jefferson and Addison. To me, it felt like they abandoned the run far too early in a game they actually led at halftime. If they can commit to running the ball with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, the pass will open up, and they should be able to score enough points to pull this one out at home.
Vikings 23 – Bears 19
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (+7.5)
The Packers will travel to Met-Life Stadium to take on the Giants and their new head coach, Mike Kafka. Brian Daboll was finally the casualty of this team’s inability to hold onto a second-half lead. I guess the magic number was 4 games that a team has to lose when leading well into the second half before the front office has seen enough. In his defense, it wasn’t his fault that Jaxson Dart was injured, and he can’t be blamed for the defensive line’s complete lack of tackling ability. You can, however, lay the blame on his feet for insisting that Russell Wilson is plan B if anything happens to Dart, while Jameis Winston is wasting away as the Giants motivational speaker on the sidelines. The Giants have been competitive in most of their games since Dart took over at QB in week 4, and if he makes it back from the league’s concussion protocol, there’s no reason to think they won’t hang around in this game as well. The Packers haven’t looked like a cohesive unit on offense, and it appears that the injuries to their receiving corps are starting to affect Jordan Love’s performance. I think that Josh Jacobs, along with the Green Bay defense, will be enough to win this game, but I don’t have a ton of faith that they will be able to cover a number larger than a touchdown. I’ll take the Giants to cover the number, very possibly by blowing another late lead.
Packers 25 – Giants 20
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
These two teams met on a Thursday night about a month ago, and that was basically the start of the “Joe Flacco Resurgence Part 9”. This dude is like a horror movie monster, and he’s back again, slashing his way through opposing defenses by simply throwing the ball to his two best receivers. It’s nothing fancy, the Bengal game plan is pretty simple: “try and score more points than your terrible defense allows every week”. What we’ve been treated to is a string of games with game totals that have been increasing each and every week. It started back when these two teams faced each other in week 7, with the Bengals winning 33-31. Then they lost to the Jets 39-38, followed by a loss to the Bears 47-42, and then they took week 10 off with their bye. If the trend continues, they should combine for over 100 points this week, so fire up all of your fantasy players in this one. The Steelers need to win this one after dropping last week’s contest against the Chargers. If they lose this game at home and are swept by the Bengals in the season series, this season will be in serious doubt. The Ravens are the odds-on favorites to win this division as it is, despite sitting at 4-5. The fact that the Steelers and Ravens still have two games yet to play against each other ensures that, regardless of this week’s outcome, this division will be up for grabs, but I feel like this is one the Steelers just need to win. I expect Pittsburgh to rely heavily on Jaylen Warren and their defense to get this win. I doubt the game total flirts with 80+ points, but I can see a score similar to the last time they met. I’m taking Pittsburgh and laying these points at home.
Steelers 34 – Bengals 27
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
The Jags lost a heartbreaker last week to the Texans thanks to a Davis Mills last-minute touchdown run. Meanwhile, the Chargers looked great and handled the Steelers 25-10 on Sunday night. Most impressive was the Charger offensive line and how they were able to contain T.J. Watt without having to use an additional blocker, which is especially important as they try to navigate life without both of their top offensive tackles. The Jags defense is still pesky and can take the ball away, but they haven’t exactly been a lockdown unit as of late, allowing 100 points over their last 3 games. If the Chargers can keep Justin Herbert upright and are able to establish Kimani Vidal the way they did last week, this should be a good day for the Chargers. I usually don’t love the West Coast to East Coast trip, but the Rams made it without an issue just 3 weeks ago when they won in Jacksonville 35-7. I just don’t think the Jaguars are a good enough team right now to beat the better teams in the league, and this game should be no different. They get the Cardinals and Titans in their next two games, so it’s not like they won’t win again, but for this week, I just think they are outclassed.
Chargers 29 – Jaguars 19
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
This one may be the game of the week. These two teams sit tied atop the NFC West, and they will lock horns for the first time in 2025 to see which team will get an all-important leg up in the pursuit of the division crown and a home playoff game. With both teams sitting at 7-2, the winner will also stake a claim to the overall #1 seed in the NFC alongside the defending champion Eagles. Both of these teams are flying high, riding 4-game winning streaks, with the Rams 3-1 overall at home while Seattle is undefeated on the road. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford have this Rams offense clicking, ranking 5th overall in total offense and #2 in the league in passing offense. Similarly, Clint Kubiak and Sam Darnold have Seattle ranked #9 overall with the league’s 6th-ranked passing offense. The parallels between these teams go on and on; suffice it to say, this is an evenly matched game. The difference here may come down to coaching, experience, and home-field advantage. The Rams have a slight edge there across the board. Despite the fact that I can foresee a big game out of Cooper Kupp in his return to L.A., I don’t think it will be quite enough, as the Rams will pull out the win in the first round of this heavyweight matchup.
Rams 29 – Seahawks 27
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Maybe it will be Brock Purdy, maybe it will be Mac Jones. Does it really matter? The 49ers offense runs the same no matter who is under center. As long as Christian McCaffrey is there along with Trent Williams, Kyle Juszczyk, George Kittle, and a couple of viable receivers, the 49ers will be fine. More concerning is how their defense is holding together without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. If last week’s 42-point performance by the Rams is any indication, things could be better. Luckily for San Francisco, they aren’t facing the Rams and Matthew Stafford, but rather the Cardinals and Jacoby Brissett. While Brissett has been an improvement over Kyler Murray with the Arizona offense averaging around 25 points per game since he took over 4 weeks ago, the overall results have been about the same as the Cardinals are 1-3 in those games and 3-6 overall on the season. They usually play the 49ers tough, losing 16-15 in their previous meeting this year, but I just don’t have much faith at all in this team to put it all together. San Francisco needs to win this game to keep pace with the Rams and Seahawks, so I don’t see them dropping this one on the road. It won’t be especially high scoring, but Christian McCaffrey and the 49er offense will control the clock to protect their defense and will leave the desert with a win.
49ers 24 – Cardinals 16
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+8.5)
How bad are things in Cleveland? They lost to the Jets. They lost 27-20 to a team that wasn’t able to combine for 200 total yards of offense. The Browns just look like a dysfunctional mess right now, and there really isn’t any reason to keep this Dillon Gabriel charade going any longer. Gabriel is a slower, weaker-armed version of Kyler Murray. He isn’t a starting-caliber quarterback, and no matter how much you might hate the idea of Shedeur Sanders having success, it’s his turn to go out there and show us what he can…. or can’t do. The Cleveland defense is still elite, as 14 of the Jets points came before Justin Fields and the rest of the offense even took the field, thanks to a kick return followed by a punt return for 7. The Ravens, for their part, are back. Since Lamar Jackson returned for their week 9 game, they’ve been able to string together two impressive victories. Everybody just expects Lamar and the Ravens to catch Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, and a big part of that reason is the fact that Baltimore gets to play Cleveland and Cincinnati 3 times, and they still have their two games left with the Steelers. They basically control their own destiny when it comes to their playoff lives, and they aren’t going to mess around and lose this game. It won’t be a high-scoring game, as the 39.5 projected total implies, but the Ravens should control this game from the opening gun. Lamar and Derrick Henry will pound away at the Browns front seven, and eventually they will wear them down and get in the end zone. The Browns will try and hand it to Quinshon Judkins as much as possible, but Gabriel just doesn’t present enough of a threat to keep the safeties from staying up close all game to keep him contained. I don’t think it will be a blowout like their 41-17 first meeting, but I do think Baltimore handles business and covers this fat number.
Ravens 27 – Browns 17
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+3.5)
Denver sits at 8-2 and atop the AFC West… for now. While their total of 8 wins is very impressive, if you look closer, you start to see warts. Before you say anything, I know a win is a win and they all count in the end, but 7 of their 8 wins have come against the who’s who of next year’s top 10 draft picks. If you take away their dramatic, last-second win over the Eagles (yes, I know you can’t take that win away), you’re left with 7 wins against 7 teams that are a combined 17-46-1. They beat the Titans, Jets, Giants, and Raiders (7-30 record) by a grand combined total of 14 points. This team is going to get punched in the face, repeatedly, by the better teams in this league if they keep showing up sleepwalking for 3 quarters and then try to make magic happen in the final quarter. The Chiefs are going to win this game, period. Andy Reid, coming off a bye week, is 22-4 in his career. He’s been game planning to beat Sean Payton for two full weeks, and this game is going to be ugly for Denver. The Broncos aren’t helpless, as they still have the league’s best pass rush, but playing without Patrick Surtain is going to add to their difficulty, and Patrick Mahomes just has too many weapons for them to stop. Lock this one in, Chiefs win and cover.
Chiefs 31 – Broncos 16
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
If that Seattle/Rams game isn’t the game of the week, then this one certainly is. The schedule makers nailed it this week by putting these two teams in the Prime Time, Sunday Night slot. The Eagles sit at 7-2 after their win in Green Bay, while Detroit is right there at 6-3 following their romp in Washington. This is most likely a playoff game preview, and it will be interesting to see what version of the Eagles we see this Sunday night. We basically know who the Lions want to be each and every week. They want to come out and establish the run with Gibbs and Monty, while Goff leans on Amon Ra St. Brown to keep the sticks moving through the air. On the other hand, the Eagles seem to be a different team every week. They seem to want to identify their opponent’s weakness and exploit that en route to a victory. The Lions don’t exactly have a glaring weakness on defense as they rank 7th in overall play while ranking 8th against the rush and 12th against the pass. Similarly, the Eagle defense doesn’t have much in the lines of a glaring weakness as long as their secondary is able to stay healthy, namely Quinyon Mitchell, who left last week’s game with a sore hamstring. Mitchell looks to have avoided a major injury, and the addition of Jaelin Phillips looked to pay immediate dividends last week against Green Bay, helping the Philly defense rush the quarterback. Jared Goff has shown through his career that if he’s going to struggle, it will be in a game that features a strong pass rush and is played outdoors. The Eagles are going to get A.J. Brown involved in the offense this week, and if they can score a couple of times early, they should be able to control the game throughout the day. It’s going to be every bit as tight as the line implies, but I’m going to side with the home team to pull this one out in the end.
Eagles 27 – Lions 24
Dallas Cowboys @ Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5)
If we are going to pat the schedule makers on the back for the previous game, we have to give them a little heck for this one. I get it, these are two teams that have a lot of fans. Usually, it’s middle-aged men who like to paint their faces and can regale you with tales of the greats like Jim Plunkett or Everson Walls. Aside from the fact that we like to tune in to see how badly the Cowboys defense is going to play, there really isn’t much to see here unless you’re actually a fan of one of these two squads. The Cowboys went and added a couple of solid players to their defense in Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, but neither of them rushes the passer or covers receivers, so I don’t see how this is going to help. It will help their run defense, but that’s usually only an issue in the second half of games when the Cowboys are already losing by double digits and their opponents are just trying to milk the clock. This defense stinks across the board, and adding two players isn’t going to fix that. DaRon Bland and Travon Diggs have never been good cover corners, but have excelled due to the fact that they both have great hands and are electric with the ball in their hands. Those pick-sixes look great on tape, but they were all generally caused by Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence living in their opponent’s backfield and rushing throws from opposing QBs. The Raiders look like they have some life since getting Brock Bowers back, and it wouldn’t shock me to see them beat Dallas outright in this game. Either way, I don’t like laying points with the Cowboys on the road, so I’m going to take the Raiders here and hope they can keep it to a field goal or less.
Cowboys 27 – Raiders 24
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