We’ve almost made it to the halfway point of the 2025 season, and at this point, we have to look to the immortal words of Bill Parcells: “You are what your record says you are”. That means we have to accept that the Colts are the best team in the league. It also means that the vast majority of this league can beat any other team on any given Sunday. There are some exceptions, most notably in the AFC East, where the Jets and Dolphins have combined for 1 win, and that came when they played each other. Picking out the terrible teams seems to be much easier than picking the great teams right now, but record alone can’t be the sole determining factor. Otherwise, the 1-5 Ravens couldn’t be a touchdown favorite over the Bears, could they? Well, let’s dive into this week’s matchups and see if we can make heads or tails out of what to expect in week 8. With 6 teams on bye, there will be a few less games to break down.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
The Chargers were throttled at home this past week by that aforementioned best team in the league and will look to rebound against a Vikings team that is coming off of their own loss in week 7 against the Eagles. The Colts came into SoFi Stadium and took control of the game from the opening kickoff and never looked back. The Charger defense was unable to contain Jonothan Taylor as he was able to rush for 94 yards on 16 carries, along with 3 touchdowns. Los Angeles has now lost 3 of their last 4 games, and their defense is ranked 26th overall in the league against the run. The Vikings will most likely stick with Carson Wentz for one more week as they don’t seem to fully trust J.J. McCarthy quite yet. Wentz wasn’t bad last week as he was able to get the ball to his big three targets, Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson, for a total of 313 yards, but he was unable to find the end zone while throwing 2 interceptions. Their pass defense took a step backward as Jalen Hurts threw the ball all over the field all game long, as the Eagles leaned heavily on A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith (304 combined receiving yards) to lead Philly to the win. I expect the Vikings to ride Jordan Mason this week for as long as they can, as they attempt to control the ball and the clock. In the end, Justin Herbert will need to find the magic touch he had through the first 4 weeks of this season to lead the home team to a much-needed victory. I’m taking the Bolts to bounce back and win this one, breaking a recent trend of Thursday night upsets, but I also expect the Vikings to keep it close, continuing the trend of dogs covering.
Chargers 28 – Vikings 26
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
What a difference a week makes! The Bengals looked like they were dead in the water after week 6, then they made what appeared to be a desperation move by acquiring the recently benched Joe Flacco from their in-state rival, Browns. Just a week later, they sit as almost touchdown favorites in their week 8 matchup after Joe Cool 2.0 shredded the Steelers for 342 yards and 3 scores en route to a 33-31 win. The formula seems pretty simple: just get the ball to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Of Flacco’s 31 completions and 342 yards, he connected on the big two 22 times for 255 yards. Now the Bengals welcome in the absolute mess known as the New York Jets. The Jets somehow followed up a 13-11 snoozefest in London with an even worse 13-6 loss at home against the Carolina Panthers. After watching Justin Fields struggle to move the offense in the first half with just 46 yards passing and 22 yards rushing, coach Aaron Glenn made the switch to Tyrod Taylor. While he was able to complete more passes downfield, he also turned the ball over twice and somehow managed a passer rating of less than half of what Fields put up. If you add both players’ passer ratings together, you would get an 85.6 day, which would put them just behind the 88.4 rating that Bryce Young had with just 138 yards passing on a 60% completion percentage and 1 TD. The bottom line here is that the Jet offense is horrible, and even the soft Bengals defense should be able to shut them down or at least hold them to under 20 points. The only other time the Bengals held an opponent under 20 points this season was against their current QB, Joe Flacco, and Cleveland in week 1.
Bengals 23 – Jets 19
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
The Ravens had last week off, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Through the first 6 weeks of the season, the Ravens not only lost 5 games, but they also lost about half of their players. Lamar Jackson will return this week, along with Patrick Ricard, which will no doubt help the offense, while Roquan Smith and Chidobe Awuzie will return to help a Baltimore defense that currently ranks at or near the bottom of the league in almost every statistical category. Even with the home-field advantage and the returning talent, it’s a bit curious as to why Vegas would have them as almost a touchdown favorite over a Bears team that seems to be hitting its stride. Chicago is coming off their 4th straight victory. This past week, they easily handled the Saints after a pair of 1-point wins in their previous two games over the Commanders and Raiders. Caleb Williams seems to be meshing well with Ben Johnson’s offense, and the running game featuring D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai has taken things to another level over their last two games. Look for Chicago to continue to try and run the ball, but it won’t be quite as easy this week against a rested Ravens squad. Lamar can simply “will” this team to victory, and with Ricard in the mix, plowing the way for a rejuvenated King Henry, the Ravens offense should be able to put up plenty of points. The Steelers loss last week has opened a door for the Ravens to right the ship and make a run for this division, and that will start this week. The spread is too rich for my blood, but I’ll take Baltimore to grind out the win.
Ravens 31 – Bears 26
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
Both teams enter this game coming off a loss, but that’s about where the similarities end. Miami looks like one of the worst teams in the league right now after getting smashed by the Browns in a muddy mess of a game in Cleveland last week. The Dolphin defense had no answer for Quinshon Judkins, and now they will have to deal with Bijan Robinson coming off his lowest rushing total of the season. Bijan had trouble finding room to run last week against the 49ers, but this week should be a different story. He should have a field day running against a Miami defense that currently ranks #30 in the league against the run. If Miami tries to load the box to stop him, then Michael Penix will find Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Darnell Mooney downfield. The Dolphins will stick with Tua under center after briefly benching him last week in favor of Quin Ewers. They really don’t have much of a choice right now, as their offense is in a similar bind as the Jets offense. They have two talented players in Achane and Waddle, and no real way to get them the ball consistently because of poor offensive line play. Tua will give it all he has, but the Atlanta defense is young, fast, and they can get after the quarterback. This looks like it will be another long day for the Phins, and it very well may be Coach McDaniels’ last game.
Falcons 31 – Dolphins 17
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers (+7.5)
Here we have yet another game with a spread between 6.5 and 7.5. This time, we get the Carolina Panthers as home dogs as they return home after their first road win of the season against the winless Jets. They welcome the Bills, who are coming off their bye, into Bank of America Stadium, where they are currently undefeated this season. The Bills bye came at the perfect time as they limped into the week off after their second straight defeat. They sit behind the Patriots in the AFC East and will look to get back into the win column against a Panthers team that has had quite a defensive resurgence in 2025. This year, the Carolina defense ranks in the top ten in the league against the pass as well as against the run for an overall ranking of 7th in the league. While they’re vastly improved, they may struggle to hold down Josh Allen and the Bills offense. The Panther offense will most likely be led by Andy Dalton for this week, and possibly longer as Bryce Young deals with a high ankle sprain. Look for the Bills to hand the Panthers their first home loss of the season in a game that could get ugly if Buffalo can score multiple early touchdowns.
Bills 34 – Panthers 16
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans (-1.5)
This spread is another head scratcher as Vegas has the Texans as a home favorite, albeit by the slimmest of margins. After watching both teams play last week, it doesn’t make sense to me how Frisco isn’t laying at least a touchdown, regardless of where the game is being played. The Houston offensive line struggled again on Monday night as the Seattle defense was able to sack C.J. Stroud 3 times while stifling the Texans run game to a mere 56 yards on 17 carries. Meanwhile, their top-ranked defense was exposed a bit as Sam Darnold and company were able to hang 27 points on the board on Monday night, the highest total they’ve allowed so far in 2025. San Francisco finally got George Kittle back, and while he was held without a catch, he was on the field blocking for Christian McCaffrey, who had a season-high 129 rushing yards to go with an additional 72 yards receiving. Expect the 49ers to come in with the same game plan as always, to run their offense through their superstar running back as long as he’s still healthy ,and they should be able to put up enough points to upset the home team here. This line may change quite a bit this week if Nico Collins doesn’t clear concussion protocol, so keep an eye on it.
49ers 20 – Texans 13
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
The Giants have become one of the most fun teams to watch in the league for everybody but their fans. This team sits at 2-5 but can easily be 4-3 after they gave away another game this past week in Denver. This is the second game this year that they blew a sizable second-half lead thanks to an ill-timed turnover by their brash young QB, coupled with more kicker trouble. The Giants lost Graham Gano earlier this season when he strained his groin during pregame warmups against the Chiefs. His replacement, Jude McAtamney, had been solid through a couple of games but missed two crucial extra-point attempts in a game that New York lost by 1 point. Now the Giants travel to Philly, where the Eagles are anxiously waiting to exact revenge for a week 6 loss at Met Life Stadium. The Giants will do their best to be a thorn in Philly’s side, but this is just too much of an ask for a shorthanded offense playing this season without Malik Nabers. Look for Jalen Hurts to stay hot and lean on his top two receivers much like he did last week. Of the 326 yards that Hurts compiled against Minnesota, 304 of them were shared by Brown and Smith. This could get ugly as I expect the Eagles to keep their foot on the gas all game long.
Eagles 41 – Giants 20
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (-7.5)
Yet another 7.5 spread as this game features the home Patriots laying the touchdown plus to a Browns team that is coming off of their best game of the season. Cleveland’s defense was the story last week as they forced 4 turnovers while sacking Tua and Quin Ewers a combined 4 times. Rookie, Quinshon Judkins found the end zone 3 times on the ground as the Browns easily coasted to a 31-6 victory. Meanwhile in Tennessee, Mike Vrabel was able to exact a bit of revenge on his former employer as the Pats scored 31 points of their own as they similarly beat down the Titans 31-13. The Pats return home as the top team in the AFC East, and they should be able to retain that mantle just as long as they can avoid costly turnovers against Cleveland’s top 5 overall defense. I expect a low-scoring affair as New England should stay conservative on offense, as they let their defense keep the pressure on Dillon Gabriel and the Cleveland offense. Gabriel may just get this game to prove he belongs under center as the Browns get their bye week in week 9, and most fans are itching to see Shadeur Sanders get his chance. While most fans only want to see him fail, the interest in seeing him play might be enough for Kevin Stephanski to give him a shot if the offense sputters yet again this week. Either way, this Browns team isn’t strong enough to go into Gillette Stadium and pull off the upset. Their defense is good enough to keep it close in what should be a lower-scoring affair.
Patriots 19 – Browns 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
The Bucs lost a tough one on Monday night as the Lions dropped them by a score of 24-9. The loss was even more painful as Mike Evans was forced from the game after sustaining a broken collarbone and a concussion on the same play. No sooner did they get him back; they’ve now lost him for most of the season. They get a bit of a reprieve from the schedule makers as they will now travel to New Orleans before taking week 9 off with their bye. New Orleans nightmare season continued last week as they dropped their 6th game of the season in Chicago, as well as losing their promising young running back, Kendre Miller. They just aren’t talented or deep enough to sustain injuries and not have it affect an offense that was already struggling to score points. At this point, it is more likely that they trade away players like Chris Olave or Alvin Kamara than it is they will win another game this season. Spencer Rattler is doing his best, but he’s better suited for a backup role long term. If you asked the average New Orleans fan what the most frustrating part of this season has been, most would probably say it’s how disappointing Arch Manning has looked at the University of Texas. They need a franchise QB, and Manning would have been perfect if his grandpa had allowed it. Either way, this week they are going to get smoked by a Bucs team that needs to get back on track before taking a week off. There is a good chance Tampa gets back both Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin to help Baker light up the scoreboard in N’awlins.
Bucs 34 – Saints 16
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-14.5)
The best team in the league. I have to keep saying that, as I am still trying to wrap my head around the fact that Daniel Jones is currently the quarterback of a team that is not only winning games but doing so thanks to his leadership and passing ability. The fact that they have the best running back in the league hasn’t hurt either, but Danny Dimes currently sits second in the league in total quarterback rating. After returning to the site of their only loss this season and exorcizing the demons of L.A. with a convincing 38-24 win over the Chargers, the Colts return home to face the 1-6 Titans. Tennessee and rookie top pick Cam Ward are still trying to figure things out in 2025. After firing head coach Brian Callahan after week 6, they welcomed their former head coach, Mike Vrabel, and the Pats to Music City in week 7. Vrabel had his team ready to play, and when the music stopped, the Pats walked out of Nissan Stadium with a 31-13 victory. Right now, the Titans aren’t doing much of anything well. Their defense is ranked 29th against the run and 28th in total points allowed, while their offense is ranked dead last in the league overall. As whacky as this season has gone, there’s really no way we can say this is a game the Colts will lose. As much as I would love to predict the unfathomable, we are going to just go with the obvious answer here. The Colts will be everybody’s top choice for their survivor pools and should coast to an easy win.
Colts 28 – Titans 16
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
I don’t know why, but I’ve always associated these two teams with each other. While they may have shared a few players over the year, and both have had the pleasure of Wade Phillips as their head coach, they really haven’t been traditional rivals. Maybe it’s just the idea of Cowboys riding Broncos that ingrained itself into my impressionable brain. Well, now there might be a new rivalry brewing as we get the first-ever Javonte Williams revenge game! The Broncos just pulled out a miracle over another NFC East team, and they’re looking to make it two in a row as they come to Big D to take on their former running back and the high-powered Cowboys offense. The Broncos will look to move to 3-0 on the season against the division, as they have also beaten the Eagles in dramatic fashion this season. Dallas is coming off an impressive win at home against Washington, which has many thinking that this team very well could make a postseason run. While the return of CeeDee Lamb does elevate their already exciting offense, he doesn’t do anything to help a defense that has been getting lit up every week. Last week, they were able to hold down a Commanders offense that limped into the game without their two top pass catchers, while also losing Jayden Daniels in the second half. The Dallas offense has shown up every single week, and while the Denver defense does present a tougher challenge than previous opponents, they should still be able to move the ball and put up points this Sunday. This game is going to come down to Bo Nix and the Bronco offense. To win this game, they will need to outscore Dak and the Cowboys. Coming off of last week, I think they keep the momentum going, and Nix will find Courtland Sutton for at least one score while J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey keep the sticks moving on the ground. It will be a back-and-forth affair and should come down to the last possession.
Broncos 31 – Cowboys 30
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Aaron Rodgers against the Packers on a prime-time Sunday night game? Yes please! Rodgers and the Steelers return home after an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Joe Flacco and the previously reeling Bengals. Rodgers didn’t feel like he was the problem, as he was able to throw for 249 yards and 4 scores. He did have two interceptions that were converted into two touchdowns, but if you watched the game, at least one could be blamed on D.K. Metcalf getting the ball ripped from his hands on the sidelines. The Packers were able to escape the desert with a win over the Cardinals, but it wasn’t easy. Jordan Love struggled to find his rhythm as he threw for just 179 yards on 19 of 29 passing, but he was able to avoid costly mistakes. While he did fumble twice, he was able to recover both, unlike Jacoby Brissett, who lost his lone fumble, which led to a Josh Jacobs touchdown in the 3rd quarter. This game is a tough one to call because Pittsburgh seems to be that team that will pull out a win when you expect them to lose, but then will drop a game like last week, where they were favored by more than a touchdown. I wouldn’t touch this game, but with the spread at 3.5 points, I’d lean towards taking the Steelers and the points. We’re picking winners here, so I’m going to plant the flag and call the upset. We’ve seen Love and company struggle in this spot before on the road, so we’re taking Pittsburgh.
Steelers 24 – Packers 22
Washington Commanders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
The Chiefs are back? Well, the players are all back and playing now that Xavier Worthy is healthy and Rashee Rice has served his suspension, so I guess they are. Patrick Mahomes has already had a Hall of Fame career, and somehow, he’s managing to have a career year. The Raiders are hardly the standard by which we are going to measure how strong a contending team is, but Mahomes and company wasted no time in dispatching with Vegas and beat the so badly that the star QB was able to take most of the 4th quarter off. Meanwhile, in Dallas, things could not have gone worse for the Commanders. Not only did they lose to their hated division rivals, but they lost their star QB in the process. Coach Quinn said after the game that the injury isn’t serious, so we will check back on that as the week progresses. What is serious is how badly the Washington defense has been defending the run. While the Chiefs haven’t exactly been running the ball with a ton of success this season, they were able to move the ball with their committee of backs last week against the Raiders by taking 41 attempts for 152 yards and a score as a team. The 3.7 yards per carry isn’t anything to write home about, but it showed that they are willing and able to run the ball when they have to. This week, they should be able to handle the Commanders whether Daniels plays or not. We’re taking the Chiefs to roll in this one.
Chiefs 34 – Commanders 20
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