In this article, I want to take a look at the top pitchers in the league based on stat cast data. We will focus on the metric “Run Value” this week:
What is a pitchers “run value”?
This is a fascinating metric to me. Basically, it measures how many runs a pitcher allowed (negative value) or prevented (positive value) based on the outcome of each pitch, considering factors like runners on base and outs. Ultimately, it’s a measure to quantify a pitcher’s impact on scoring. We’ll take a look at this from two levels. First, we’ll isolate specific pitches by specific pitchers and see who had the most effective pitch in baseball last season. Second, we’ll look at the measure from a total package perspective. Obviously this isn’t the be-all, end-all qualification to the effectiveness of a pitcher, but it’s still a fun look under the hood.
Number One Ranked Pitch: Dylan Cease (SP), San Diego Padres – Slider. RV: 25:
Cease’s favorite pitch for a reason, and mannnn was it effective. Sitting around 89.6 MPH with a spin rate 2,780, this pitch returned a Whiff % (total number of swings that resulted in a missed pitch) of 44.7% and a Put Away % (the rate of two-strike pitches that result in a strikeout) of 25.4%. ELITE.
Number Two Ranked Pitch: Chris Sale (SP), Atlanta Braves – Slider. RV: 24:
Sale used this pitch 42% of the time in 2024, easily his most used and most effective pitch. Clocking an average of 79 MPH, the movement on this pitch is INSANE, running away from lefties and running in on righties.
Number Three Ranked Pitch: Cade Smith (RP), Cleveland Guardians – 4-Seam Fastball. RV: 24
Smith was essentially a two-trick pony, throwing mostly four-seamers and splitters with an occasional sweeper mixed in. It was the four-seamer that shined, though, averaging 96.7 MPH. The spin rate wasn’t exceptional (2,280 RPMs) nor does the pitch have a lot of movement to it (horizontal or vertical). So why so effective? Smith has a bit of funk in his delivery, however, and the extension is elite.
Number Four Ranked Pitch: Emmanuel Clase (RP), Cleveland Guardians – Cutter. RV: 24
Another pitcher finding success with a two-pitch mix, Clase kept hitters off-balanced with both his slider and his cutter. It’s the cutter, however, that stood out. A pitch that routinely touched 100 MPH and has a spin rate of 2,500-plus with sharp, tight break? WHAT? Power and the ability to locate made this pitch nearly unhittable (.150 BA against).
Number Five Ranked Pitch: Garrett Crochet (SP), Boston Red Sox – 4-Seam Fastball. RV: 21
Crochet is the only pitcher on this list who didn’t lean on his most effective pitch (34% usage, compared to 49% on the cut fastball). Averaging 96.4 MPH (with a touch of 100s sprinkled in) with a spin rate of 2,500 and a fair amount of vertical movement, this pitch mixed well with his other fastball variations (cutter, sinker). In fact, it’s probably that fastball variation that allowed this pitch to excel.
Number One Ranked Effective Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (SP), Detroit Tigers – RV: 38
Skubal was baseball’s Cy Young award winner last season, and the results don’t lie. He goes right after hitters with a solid pitch arsenal, demonstrating the ability to generate swings and misses at a great clip. The fastball/change combo was lethal. I mean, did you watch that change? Could you tell it was coming? Or where it was going?
Number Two Ranked Effective Pitcher: Logan Gilbert (SP), Seattle Mariners – RV: 36
Gilbert’s pitch mix was primarily four-seamer/slider/splitter, with a curve mixed in there. When he gave up contact, it tended to be a little too hard (27th percentile), but fortunately it wasn’t often. His offerings aren’t super special (though his slider is a real nice pitch), but the unique movement pattern (or non-movement, if you will) of his fastball made it a tough pitch to hit. Dealing in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the bigs helps.
Number Three Ranked Effective Pitcher: Chris Sale (SP), Atlanta Braves – RV: 36
As if we didn’t already know, Sale’s slider is a key part of his pitching arsenal – its effectiveness is reflected in its high run value. Sale excels largely due to his unorthodox delivery and his ability to live in the shadow of the strike zone (where he’s most effective). This leads to – in my opinion – one of the higher zone take rates in the show. He gets right to work also, wasting no time going after hitters.
Number Four Ranked Effective Pitcher: Bryce Miller (SP), Seattle Mariners – RV: 34
One of the most diverse pitch mixes around (this guy threw seven different pitches in 2024 – seven), he eats on his ability to make the ball break. His splitter is phenomenal, with nearly 39 inches of vertical drop. He commands the strike zone well, also, where most of his run value is generated.
Number Five Ranked Effective Pitcher: Emmanuel Clase (RP), Cleveland Guardians – RV: 29
As previously mentioned, Clase’s cutter is stupid good. The combination of power and glove-side movement make it one of the hardest pitches to hit. That he leans so heavily on it (nearly 60% of the time) is why he’s so high on this list. He doesn’t really waste pitches, either. Oh. And he may be the most clutch pitcher in baseball.
