One of the best weeks in all of the sports calendar, the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, has come and gone. And honestly, there wasn’t a whole lot of Madness this March. We’re left with a Sweet Sixteen of a lot of the best teams in the country from the best conferences in the country. But that doesn’t mean that there still isn’t time for some Madness to unfold. Here’s 4 bold predictions for the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament:
1. The East Regional provides us with the best games
The East Regional has the potential to be very fun. We’ve got 4 teams who all rank in the top 13 in the nation in offensive efficiency and, in my opinion, 4 teams who play very aesthetically pleasing basketball. Duke, Alabama, BYU, and Arizona are all teams that are very fun to watch, and they all have a propensity to play close games (with the obvious exception of Duke). Lobs will be thrown, shooters will catch fire, and close games will be had among these offensive juggernauts.
2. An SEC Program makes history
There are an insane 7 SEC teams in this Sweet Sixteen, but I want to highlight two of them (and pick one) who can make program history this year. Ole Miss as a program has never advanced to an Elite 8, and Tennessee has never made the Final Four. Which program is going to snap a historic drought? I think that Ole Miss beats Michigan State on Friday night to advance to their first Elite 8. The patented Christ Beard “no middle” defense is one that forces opponents to shoot a lot of 3-point shots, and Michigan State ranks 323rd in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage as a team. I have doubted this Ole Miss team, but I think they drew a dream matchup getting to play the Spartans in the Sweet Sixteen.
3. We see a 25-point blowout
Not every game in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament always delivers. At this point in the proceedings, we usually have a mid-major Cinderella squad that doesn’t belong and just gets run out of the gym by a bigger, stronger, faster opponent. We don’t really have that this year, but we do have a team that I think is in over their heads, and that is Purdue. I have very minimal faith that Purdue is going to be able to end the game with more points than Houston, as Houston should have a massive advantage on both sides of the ball. Houston’s guards are more athletic than Purdue’s and should be able to get to the rim at will, where Purdue has no protection. On the other side of the ball, I see Purdue’s post-up-dominated offense struggling against J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler. Purdue will not have the size and strength advantage that they have had through 2 rounds in this tournament, and I think there’s a high likelihood that Houston will blow them out in this one.
4. All Four 1-seeds make the Final Four
I was picking against this outcome at the start of the tournament, but seeing how the bracket has unfolded, I’m flipping sides. Duke was thoroughly dominant, as they usually are, but the other 1-seeds all withstood tough tests from very competitive 8 and 9-seeds in the round of 32 (particularly Houston against Gonzaga). The group has all shown just why they are the one-seeds, and the metrics at this point seem to point to their separation from the rest of the pack. According to KenPom, every 1-seed is at least a 6-point favorite in the Sweet Sixteen and will be at least a 4.5-point favorite in the Elite 8 (and a maximum of 16.5 points if the matchups break the right way).
