It’s a cliche, but today is for all the marbles for some teams. As of today, before any of this week’s games are played, here are the current seedings.
AFC:
- Kansas City Chiefs X
- Buffalo Bills X
- Baltimore Ravens X
- Houston Texans X
- Pittsburgh Steelers X
- Los Angeles Chargers X
- Denver Broncos
NFC:
- Detroit Lions X
- Philadelphia Eagles X
- Los Angeles Rams X
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Minnesota Vikings X
- Washington Commanders X
- Green Bay Packers X
As noted by the X, every team listed above has clinched the playoffs. Only the Broncos in the AFC and the Buccaneers in the NFC still need to do some work before they can punch their tickets.
In the AFC, Miami and Cincinnati are still in the hunt, while in the NFC, only the Falcons can sneak in.
There are so many scenarios about seedings and clinching that it would take an hour to muddle through them. An easier exercise is to talk about the scenarios for elimination. Obviously, if Denver and Tampa Bay win, they are in. But there are situations where they could lose and still get in. Denver can only get in as the no.7 seed, while there are situations where Tampa Bay could get as high as the no.3 seed or find themselves completely out of the playoffs.
So here it goes:
Tampa Bay will be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and an Atlanta win. Atlanta will be eliminated with a loss or tie.
Denver will be eliminated with a loss and either a Cincinnati or Miami win. Miami is eliminated with a loss or tie, or a Denver win or tie. Cincinnati is eliminated with a loss or tie, or a Denver win or tie, or a Miami win.
Other than that, wins or losses this week will have an effect on the seedings. As bad as Pittsburgh has played down the stretch they still have a shot at winning the division and grabbing the no.3 seed in the AFC. If they win and Baltimore loses, they get the no.3 seed and the Ravens end up with the no.5 seed. And there’s a scenario where the Steelers end up with the sixth seed. It’s probably a moot point since the Ravens are 19.5 pt favorites this week against the Browns.
Kansas City and Buffalo have secured the top two seeds. The Chiefs have announced that Mahomes won’t play this week against Denver, while the Buffalo starters won’t be in for long, facing the Patriots. Without Mahomes, Denver’s chances of winning go up dramatically.
But I’ve buried the lede…by far, the biggest game this week is the Lions/Vikings matchup. This is a clash of the titans. The Lions have the no.1 seed, while the Vikings are the no.5 seed. It is irrelevant because the winner of this game secures the top seed and a first-round bye. That’s not entirely true; the Lions have a slight edge. If the game ends in a tie, they get the no.1 seed, based on their 31-29 win over the Vikings in wk.7. It would be amazing if 2pts in wk.7 determined the top seed in the NFC.
It will be a shame for either of these teams to lose, but one will end up with the no.5 seed…with 14 wins. Whichever team it is will be forced to travel to whoever is the No. 4 seed. Three NFC teams can secure that spot: the Rams, Buccaneers, or Falcons.
Either the Lions or Vikings should be able to take care of business and win that game on the road, but it’s certainly a harder task than sitting back at home during that first week of the playoffs, knowing you’ll only need to win two home games to get to the Superbowl.
The game is in Detroit, and the Lions are 2.5-point favorites. The o/u is set at a high of 56.5 pts. These are definitely two high-powered offenses going against each other, but the Lions have truly been prolific, averaging over 33 pts per game. But it’s the Vikings who have been on a heater, winning nine games in a row.
This game will be fascinating in so many ways. All season, I have worried about Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness. I finally relented, and then the next week, he called for an onside kick with 12 minutes left in the game. They may have lost anyway, but this kind of decision-making can kill a team in a big spot.
There is no doubt that Dan Campbell has a little Roy “Tin Cup” McAvoy in him. If you’re unfamiliar with the character, played brilliantly by Kevin Costner, watch the movie…the title is Tin Cup. He’s a driving range club pro with a penchant for taking unreasonable chances on the golf course… inevitably costing him time and time again. There’s definitely a “Tin Cup” streak in Campbell. Sunday night’s game will be fascinating to watch.
Key Injuries:
Tua Tagovailoa is set to miss the finale against the Jets. He’s still dealing with a hip issue. Miami’s WR tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are also questionable this week.
Cincinnati RB Chas Brown is questionable with an ankle injury. WR Tee Higgins is questionable with an ankle and knee injury. Both will likely play.
For the Buccaneers, TE Cade Otton is out with a knee injury.
Basically, the entire Eagles team is doubtful this week. Jalen Hurts is still in concussion protocol, and the team has locked up the no.2 seed. The only drama will be if Saquon Barkley plays to break Eric Dickerson’s rushing record.
Green Bay WR Christian Watson is questionable with a knee injury.
Commander RB Austin Ekeler is questionable, recovering from a concussion.
Atlanta WR Darnell Mooney is questionable with a shoulder injury.
In Los Angeles, it appears HC Sean McVey is taking the same approach as Philadelphia. The no.3 or no.4 seed doesn’t matter to McVey, who appears to be resting his starters.
Gus Edwards is out for the Chargers with an ankle injury.
And in the all-important Lions/Vikings matchup, RB David Montgomery is out with a knee injury.
